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David Ortiz
Hard to not go with Ortiz in one of your total base slots today. He's facing Kevin Correia who doesn't strike anyone out, and doesn't walk them either. Dude wants (or can't help) the ball getting in play. Ortiz, who is already difficult to strike out, doesn't rate to pile those up today. And though he can take a walk, Correia should be in the strike zone early and often. Look for Papi to take advantage and out system has him as the highest expected total bases by a considerable margin.
Miguel Cabrera
If you just started following baseball yesterday this pick might not make a ton of sense. For everyone else, here's your not-so-shark pick of the day. Miggy crushes everyone equally. This includes lefties like Jason Vargas. Like Correia above, Vargas relies on hitters making contact and hopes those hit balls land in the gloves of the guys behind him. He also limits the walks which means the ball should hit the bat. Vargas's FB% keeps his Babip low but he also runs the risk of the ball going out of the park or in the gaps. Miggy should be able to grind out some bases today.
Daniel Murphy
There are a few good options today in the hits category and this is where you will probably win or lose your matchup as I think Ortiz and Miggy will be heavy starts in the total bases category. I'm going with Murphy in one of these spots simply because his contact rate is off the charts. He strikes out less than 12% of the time and walks less than 9% of the time. The rest of his PAs are seeing the ball get put in play. There are a few players with higher numbers, but not many. I don't think he'll be seeing a ton of Carlos Martinez today so there could be some matchup issues as the Cards mix up the bullpen. But I still like Murphy's chances of grabbing some hits today.
Rios
Could and maybe should throw him in the total bases category as well considering what kind of damage he does to lefty pitching. I wrote about it in our daily picks today but let me give you the highlights real quick: he destroys them. Rios's OPS is close to 1K against lefties over the last year, nearly .300 points higher than his righty split. Can't go wrong in either slot with Rios today.
Cole Hamels
Get ready to grin and bear it. I think you have to put Hamels in the top K spot and then hope it plays out right. Basically the Braves are one of the best in the league in hitting lefty pitching and one of the worst when it comes to striking out against them. One thing here is that many of the Braves are two true outcomes guys, either they K or they dong. That's an overstatement of course. But not by leaps and bounds. Hamels has the K stuff going this season, putting down more than a batter and inning and the upside there for him to hit the high mark today.
Julio Teheran
Teheran will square off against Hamels today and has some strike out upside against the Phillies who rank near the bottom of the league in total offense against right-handed pitching. Their K rate is middle of the road, but I think Teheran stands a good chance at K numbers today because he should be able to go long enough in the game to meet the mark. Teheran doesn't walk anyone and that keeps him going into the later innings. This provides a huge advantage when trying to hit some of the lower level K numbers on ScoreStreak.
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