Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, and DraftStreet for 6/14/14

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Pitchers

Stephen Strasburg FanDuel 10000 DraftKings 10900 DraftStreet 23539
Doesn't take my level of genius to make this pick. That being said, for the best pitcher going on the day, he doesn't necessarily rate as a total lock for fantasy upside. I couldn't (nor shouldn't) leave him off because the the numbers are sick. More than 11 K's per 9, less than 2 BB's per 9 and an xFIP of 2.40 are just insane. The Cardinals rank in the lower half of the league against righties. What worries me here is the Cardinal's K rate or less than 19%. That's among the best in the league. Even with their offensive woes, K's are such a big part of pitcher success that facing a team that doesn't swing and miss can really limit the upside. Especially at Stras's prices. Again, tough to ignore because he's light years better than the next closest guy. But there's a case for fading him.

Zack Wheeler FanDuel 7000 DraftKings 7700 DraftStreet 16226
Facing the worst offense in the league in the Padres in a pitcher's park. Usually that should be all you would need to run him out there. But I'll delve a little deeper. Wheeler's been racking up the strikeouts this season, putting down more than a batter an inning. He gets bitten by the walks often because he'll go deep into counts with hitters. I see that as less of a problem today against the Dads. The real story here with Wheeler are the prices. He is dirt cheap in some places, especially FanDuel and DraftKings. It makes the decision between he and Strasburg on FD closer and on DK you can pair them together if you want.

Chris Archer FanDuel 7600 DraftKings 9200 DraftStreet 17064
The Astros aren't the bottom feeders they used to be. They can hit for sure. But they are also a young squad that strikes out more than league average. Archer has K potential and I would consider him in some GPPs on that upside. He's been fine this year with a mid three's xFIP though the walks bite him and keep him from going long in games.

Edwin Jackson FanDuel 6900 DraftKings 7500 DraftStreet 12600
I'll pick on him later when I get to choosing some Phillies against him. But the case for playing Jackson is there too. He's coming cheap, strikes guys out and Phillies rank near the bottom of the league against right handed pitching.

 

Catchers

Mike Zunino FanDuel 2400 DraftKings 3200 DraftStreet 3855
Zunino's biggest problem as a major league hitter is that he strikes out too much. His 31% K% is like what you would do in the majors (not me, I'm a slap contact hitter) and it crushes his safety because he doesn't give himself a chance when going down on strikes all the time. But today our system is high on him because his biggest weakness is neutralized by Joe Saunders who hates striking people out. He K's less than six per nine. Really nice spot for Zunino even if the park is bad. He is world's better against lefties with a 133 wRC+ against them this season. I am loving this play today at complete punt prices. Play him and spend elsewhere.

Buster Posey FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 5837
I'm not usually a fan of recommending Posey against anyone but lefties, but his price has been on a steady decline over the last couple of weeks and he's hitting a point at which we can consider playing him against anyone, especially a guy like Christian Bergman, who wasn't good in the minors. In case you weren't aware, the majors are more difficult than the minors. Posey's OPS against righties isn't quite .800 over the last year, but again, the price in a lot of places dictates a play here even on the wrong side of the split.

Tyler Flowers FanDuel 2200 DraftKings 3000 DraftStreet 2500
I usually don't like going off such a small sample size, especially since his career numbers tell a slightly different tale, but Flowers has been damn good against lefties this season. In about fifty PAs he's got a 128 wRC+ and .363 wOBA. It's crazy Babip fueled which is why he's lower on the list. But I'm not a huge fan of Danny Duffy and catcher is weak today.

 

First Basemen

Anthony Rizzo FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 8444
He's been a beast this season, no doubt about it. Finally putting up the numbers many were expecting when he was getting traded all over the majors as the lynchpin prospect in big deals. Putting it together finally and has a solid matchup against Buchanon. Rizzo's OBP is over .400 as he's taking a a ton of walks. This raises his floor considerably as he stands to be on base as much as some of the other elite first basemen. His teammates hurt him a bit on the counting stats (because they stink) but his power upside and free trips to first make him super solid when facing subpar pitching.

Joey Votto FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 6918
He's back from injury and back to doing what he does best: getting on base and making solid contact. The power will probably never totally return to what it was, but he's still a decent option on any given day because the bases on balls give him such a high floor. Gallardo doesn't possess overwhelming strikeout stuff which benefits Votto and the rest of the Reds today. I like him for cash games. Remember, this guy is still rocking close to a .900 OPS in a shortened season.

Mark Teixeira FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 5788
Consistently near the top of our system, and always there against lefties. He is also, typically, a low percentage play. I think there is some observation bias with the guy for whatever reason. He's been decent this year, not great, but the power has kept him in the discussion. Eleven home runs already and he's got a 129 wRC+ against lefties on the season. HE typically falls in the middle tier of first basemen which is solid value on the guy. And the Yankee bats are starting to pick it up which doesn't hurt. Strongly consider Chris Davis

 

Second Basemen

Dustin Pedroia FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 7054
Personally, I think there is something wrong with him injury-wise. This is a problem as his power has diminished quite a bit. That being said, his batted ball profile is completely in line with his career numbers and actually his LD% has gone up. There are some Babip issues, and his K's are up a bit, but it's tough to point to one stat to figure out what is going on except to say, this is probably who Pedroia just is. One thing that isn't in question is how he hits lefties. His OPS is over .800 against them this season with a .357 wOBA. So I'm trotting him out there when he's facing guys like TJ House. He's still a solid play, though the MVP days are probably gone.

Chase Utley FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 6576
When it goes bad for Edwin Jackson, it goes really bad. The guy can strike people out but he throws a ton of pitches and has a tendency to get rocked. Look for Utley to take advantage in a hitter's park. Even without the home runs Utley's OPS is around .850 and he limits the strikeouts enough to stay a safe play on most nights. Jackson has an insanely high 28% LD% this season. Dudes are hitting off of him. The xFIP is low, but I don't have faith. I'll be buying on Utley and some other Phillies today.

Howie Kendrick FanDuel 2400 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 4833
Because if you play the late slate of games most sites will require you put someone in the 2B slot and he seems the least stinky of all the other options. How's that for some expert fucking analysis?

 

Shortstops

Jose Reyes FanDuel 3900 DraftKings 5000 DraftStreet 7841
As Reyes's Babip has climbed out of the gutter he's slowly regressed to his mean. As a guy who gets a base a decent amount and this year especially, starts swiping some bags. I like his chances of those outcomes today against Bud Norris who only strikes out about six batters per nine and is about league average in keeping runners from stealing. Reyes, hitting at the top of the Blue Jay order, always has upside in that respect. His prices are a little high on DraftStreet and DraftKings, but he's one of the best SS plays out there and is in a great spot as the Jays could do damage today.

Xander Bogaerts FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 6240
You'll often see him and Pedroia show up in the same picks article because they both hammer lefties. Xander's early numbers against southpaws look less and less fluky by the day as he accrues more plate appearances. His 148 wRC+ this season tells a nice little tale along with the .895 OPS. And it's not even Babip fueled. This guy just hammers lefties and will play today in a great ballpark for righty hitters. Awesome spot against T.J. House who strikes out less than six batters per nine.

Erick Aybar FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 6057
Just another reason I might not be playing the late slate of games today. Offense is in short supply. Aybar rates out highest in our system for the evening games, facing Gavin Floyd. He's pretty platoon neutral with a slight edge to to facing righties. But he's not great and this up-the-middle options for the evening games are rough.

 

Third Basemen

David Wright FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 4593
The price is reaching critical mass where I think one of two things will soon occur. 1: He goes on a tear of hitting in which those swings and misses (21.3% K rate) become hits. Or 2: He goes on the DL because something is wrong with him. Two seems more likely, but I'm willing to buy on number one because he's David Wright and sometimes you can buy a low on a name. He hasn't done much in the way of inspiring confidence. And he's much better against lefties. But Jesse Hahn is new to the majors (though with a little success coming up the ranks) and Wright's price is getting super low. Still a risk, but I think you can buy here.

Carlos Santana FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 5311
Jake Peavy is not good. Don't be fooled by the name. His xFIP over the last couple of seasons is over four and he strikes out less than seven batters per nine. He's also seen his walk rate increase possibly in relation to his fastball velocity dropping a few ticks. This is bad news against a guy like Santana who draws a ton of walks and can hit for power.

Evan Longoria FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 6164
Here's another guy, much like Wright, whose price has dropped to the point that we can consider buying him even on the wrong side of the split. To do this I want to play him against bad righties. I'm looking at you Jarred Cosart. Cosart has serious control issues, serving up more than four walks per nine and not striking out enough guys to limit the downside. Longoria is much better against lefties but the price dictates consideration today (even though he's been kind of shitty this season).

 

Outfielders

Andrew McCutchen FanDuel 5100 DraftKings 5500 DraftStreet 8620
Starling Marte FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 5332
I'm listing these two guys together because they are on the same team and when they play the same position it's much easier from a formatting standpoint to list guys together who carry the same considerations even if the expected output is much different. McCutchen is one of the great lefty killers in the game. Marte is like McCutchen-lite. I love both of these guys against Randy Wolf today. McCtuch is obviously putting together another MVP-caliber season and is the top OF play by a considerable margin today. He's guy who'll be finding his way into many of my lineups. Marte's main issue, as I see it, is that he just hasn't faced enough lefties this season. He's only got 37 PAs against his clearly dominant hand. I love the idea of stacking these two guys today and the salaries even things out a bit.

Melky Cabrera FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 7594
Like him for many of the reasons I like Reyes today. The contact should be there against a guy like Bud Norris. Melky doesn't strike out much and he doesn't walk much either. He looks for contact which puts him in play against guys like Norris who don't possess dominant swing-and-miss stuff. Cabrera is much better against righties as his OPS is nearly 100 points higher against that hand. And there's reason to suspect his power this season isn't a complete aberration. The HR/FB rate is high, but not out of the box. Great spot for him today in one of the league's best hitter's parks.

Jay Bruce FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 5889
I don't subscribe to the idea behind "protection" in a lineup. So I won't give Bruce a bump because Votto is back hitting above him. That being said, it sure will help with RBI opportunities. Bruce's Babip and HR/FB rates are both trending a little below his career averages. His walks are up, but so are the strikeouts. Our system seems to think we are still buying very low on the guy and has little faith in Gallardo. The power upside is there. I wouldn't play Bruce too much on efficiency sites like DraftStreet, but the price dictates a play everywhere else in some GPPs.

Dayan Viciedo FanDuel 2300 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 3886
It's not a well kept secret in the DFS community that this is a guy you start against lefties. He isn't mashing them quite like in the past, but it's still the dominant hand for him. His 104 wRC+ this season against lefties is nothing to write home about, but the career 137 wRC+ is. His career OPS against lefties is close to .900 and Danny Duffy shouldn't scare you even a little.

Torii Hunter FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 5897
Austin Jackson FanDuel 2600 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 6025
The Tigers look very broken on offense. But that won't last forever and these guys are platoon neutral and coming cheap against a shitty pitcher in Samuel Deduno. Detroit won't make bad pitchers look great all season long. Start buying them.

Consider Carlos Beltran and Alfonso Soriano

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