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Anibal Sanchez FanDuel 8600 DraftKings 9900 DraftStreet 17516
As I wrote yesterday with Scherzer, these Red Sox aren't what you're thinking. Get that World Series squad out of your head. They are in the bottom third of the league offensively against righties. Scherzer exploited this and he was a massive under start across the industry. Sanchez will be the same way today. Sanchez isn't as good as his 2.15 ERA would suggest. His xFIP is a little more than a run higher. But he still racks up the K's and his tag is just fine.
Jordan Zimmermann FanDuel 8000 DraftKings 7700 DraftStreet 15487
The Padres stink. And they play in one of the best pitcher's park in the league. Those two considerations alone are enough to consider every pitcher taking the mound against the Dads. This is the perfect spot for a guy like Zimmerman who makes up for his lack of K's by not walking anyone. If you are going to allow contact, this is one of the parks to do it. Zimmerman walks less than two batters per nine, while striking out about seven per nine. I think he will be a real popular cash game play where the price is right because his floor is so high because of the opponent.
Homer Bailey FanDuel 8100 DraftKings 8100 DraftStreet 14962
You usually know pretty quickly what version of Homer Bailey you've gotten on a particular day. He doesn't leave much to the imagination. Dude has run crazy bad in his HR/FB rate which is about six points higher than is career average. It's the thing that kills him really. But I like him today against the Phillies who rank 27th in the league in OPS against righties. They stink. The game being in Great American Ballpark isn't ideal of course. But I can stomach it on the upside.
C.J. Wilson FanDuel 8100 DraftKings 10700 DraftStreet 17966
The White Sox strike out 24% of the time against lefties, a stat we are always looking for when seeking high upside pitcher on a given day. Wilson has K stuff for sure. He also has walk stuff. C.J. is a fine play in the mid-tier, a heavily populated area today.
Tim Lincecum FanDuel 6600 DraftKings 8800 DraftStreet 14940
You like playing with fire? I know I do.
Yan Gomes FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 5164
As he's had more major league reps, Gomes's platoon splits have actually begun to normalize. He's becoming platoon neutral, around 800 OPS against both hands. He's shown a little bit of power this season, but not a ton. Still a little better against lefties, though much of that is from an early insane run. Still, he's worth it against southpaws. Especially lefties like Saunders. Who aren't particularly good.
Yadier Molina FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 4777
Yadier has been good against both sides of the split over the last year which makes him pretty safe at these prices. Of course Drew Hutchinson has some K upside, but not enough to scare me off Molina today. Clearly not as good as he appeared last year, but still a solid offensive catcher, Molina makes for a cash game game play on a day where the position is real hard to fill.
Consider Carlos Ruiz
Anthony Rizzo FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 7935
Rizzo is becoming one of our favorite plays. I just wish anyone else on the Cubs could hit. He's on a power tear which has his price climbing a bit in some spots. I'm not buying him on that recent performance and our projections don't really factor that in. It is good to know though that he can do it. And he can. Rizzo is turning into one of the best hitters in the game, rocking an OPS close to .900 this season and a walk rate that has me salivating. Now if the rest of his team could do anything at all.
Freddie Freeman FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 8040
I'm all over Freeman today. Playing in Chase, coming at super low prices, catching him at the bottom. This is the time to buy on the guy. Chase Anderson doesn't strike a lot of batters out, a problem when you pitch in a hitter's park. Freeman hasn't homered in awhile, something that has depressed his price across the board. Chase kicks power up more than league average to lefties. Something that should come in handy today for Freeman.
Consider Edwin Encarnacion but he's expensive
Chase Utley FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4800 DraftStreet 6103
Though I recommended Bailey above, I still think it's fine putting some Phillies out there today. Bailey's long ball problems might not be him just running bad. They've been an issue for him over his career and with Utley coming rather cheap today, I think you can fit him in in some spots. He's at totally reasonable prices across the industry. The ballpark is great for lefties and there is of course some, though not a ton of, power there.
Anthony Rendon FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 7120
I wish this game was any other stadium but Petco, a park that really knocks down power to righties. That's the only thing keeping Rendon from being a tippy-top* play. Otherwise, he's coming at great prices on the positive side of his split. Over the last year he's turned in a .377 wOBA and 140 wRC+ against lefties. Eric Stults isn't good. Like, at all. As stated, the park is the only thing bringing this pick down a bit.
*Industry term
Howie Kendrick FanDuel 2500 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 6030
On FanDuel he's coming in at about the minimum. I want to be able to take a chance on him at these prices against a lefty in Quintana. The issue Kendrick has this year is the groundball rate has gone parabolic. It's at 66% and this is typically a number that levels out quickly. So that's an uh-oh. But against he better side of his split, at real cheap prices, I think you can take a shot at cheap prices.
Hanley Ramirez FanDuel 4200 DraftKings 5500 DraftStreet 9525
One more chance to hit in Coors for the next little bit. Hanley should be able to take advantage against de la Rosa today, a lefty with an xFIP in the fours. Hanley has kind of owned everyone over the last year, but has really crushed lefties. His OPS is over 1K over that last year plus with .437 wOBA. These are crazy numbers and playing in Coors only increased the expectation. The price is steep in some spots. But not everywhere.
Jean Segura FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 5312
He is fairly even in his splits, and really not a great hitter to begin with. But what I like about Segura here is him facing a ground ball pitcher. Segura's speed could dictate some action here as he'll be putting the ball on the ground. This lends itself to him getting on base. And he needs to be there to pay the day.
Ian Desmond FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 6110
This is a reverse splits things as Desmond is actually better against righties. But I'm recommending so many other Nats today that I feel almost contractually obligated to pick Desmond today at a weak SS position.
Carlos Santana FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 5522
Pimped him yesterday as a top 3B play and he delivered with the vaunted 2-2-2-2-2 line that included a home run. Nice little day. I like him just as much today. Santana is better against lefties and Joe Saunders seems fairly trashy. Santana isn't an extreme splits guy, but he's definitely better against lefties. Will most likely still be hitting at the bottom of the lineup, which limits his upside a bit because he could lose an at bat. But he's got to be the best number eight hitter in the league.
Ryan Zimmerman FanDuel 3700 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 7014
Pretty even platoon splits for Zimmerman meaning he doesn't get a crazy bump facing the lefty Stults. Though I do think the Nats are going to put up some runs simply because so many of their guys favor hitting against lefties on the bump. Petco depresses power to a significant degree, so we need to temper out excitement some. But Zimm stands to see an extra at bat at least just because so many Nats hit righties so well.
Consider Pedro Alvarez
Shin-Soo Choo FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 6563
I'm going back to the well. And I like this pick even more than I did yesterday. Masterson is absolutely awful against lefties. One of the worst starters in the league against that side of the plate. The only reason he sticks is because he's Bob Gibson against righties. Love Choo's chances today against Masterson. He hit third in the lineup yesterday. That would be a mistake today as Choo should lead off. He is a righty killer and Masterson is a lefty loser. This is a match made in DFS heaven.
Jayson Werth FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 6397
Like Rendon, this would be a top play if it were anywhere but Petco. Werth must have "those" dreams about hitting lefties. Over the last year and more he's got a wRC+ of 190 and wOBA of .447 both of which are about as high as you're going to see. The problem here is the ballpark. Our system factors this is in, putting Werth near, but not at, the top of the outfield list.
Jay Bruce FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 3400 DraftStreet 6159
Billy Hamilton FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 6649
Put them together yesterday for some profit. Plan on doing the same today. Both did what I wrote about. Bruce came as a power bat at crazy low prices and Hamilton got on base and made things happen with his legs. It was pretty scripted and I was glad to have called it. I'm going that direction again today against David Buchanan, a guy who couldn't strike anyone out in the minors and doesn't seem like he can do it in the majors either. These guys are looking like great plays again in a hitter's ballpark. We'll take it.
Jason Heyward FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 6745
Haven't put him up here in a while. Good to have you back Jay-Hey. I am writing this at the outset of the Saturday night game. So if it happens tonight, consider this post sealed. But I think Heyward goes yard today. I never make that kind of prediction because prognosticating home runs on a daily basis is a fool's errand.* But fuck it, I'm on my second glass of wine (balla) and feeling frisky. He takes Chase Anderson yard today. Heyward's HR/FB is a bit low and the rest of his batted ball profile is in line with his career averages. The longest writeup I've ever done for a dude five down the OF picks list. Whatever.
*Right around the time I posted this Heyward hit an extra-innings HR. Not sure if I'm pumped or pissed
Scott Van Slyke FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 3000 DraftStreet 4064
Could a bunch of Dodgers just hit some god damned home runs in Coors already? Jesus.
Ryan Raburn FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 2800 DraftStreet 3793
He's a 2B on FanDuel and owns an OPS split 120 points higher over the last year against lefties. Whenever I play him he sucks, but that won't stop me today. (Maybe it should stop you)
Consider Mitch Moreland
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