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Lot of reasons to avoid the big arms today. The reasons have names like Tigers, Rockies and Angels. Some aces are facing some good teams and that can really be an issue for the obvious reasons. If I were to pay up for one of them I think I'd use:
Max Scherzer FanDuel 10400 DraftKings 10000 DraftStreet 20551
In many ways Scherzer's seasons this year looks exactly the same as his Cy Young campaign from a year ago. The K's, walks and xFIP are totally in line with what he did last year. The biggest difference that I can see is last season he ran awesome in Babip and this year he is simply normal. Really, this season is probably a more accurate representation of what he is, with the ERA adjusted up just a bit. Of the ace-type arms today he makes the strongest play because his opponent is the worst of the matchups. The Red Sox rank in the bottom third of the league against lefties with a .306 wOBA and .689 OPS. They also strikeout 22% of the time. Not in love with this play, but pitching is a little odd with the matchups. Scherzer is still a strong pitcher and he can rack up the strikeouts.
Jeff Samardzija FanDuel 7700 DraftKings 8800 DraftStreet 19659
I know Samardzija got rocked last time out against Milwaukee. Sometimes a performance like this can be a harbinger of injuries news to come. I'm opting with the former in this case because we haven't heard anything over the last couple of days. The Marlins aren't slouches by any means, but they strike out 23% of the time. This is an upside-ish play if you think Samardzija can rack up the K's and keep them off the board. His price dictates this as he comes in below the aces on the price guide.
Alex Cobb FanDuel 7500 DraftKings 9000 DraftStreet 16445
Another guy priced in the next tier after the big boys but with an expectation almost in line with those dudes. Cobb is a good pitcher with an xFIP in the low threes who strikes out almost eight batters per nine. His walk rate doesn't get out of control and he benefits from pitching in Tropicana Field where power is depressed across the board. Facing the Mariners also helps in his cause as they come in at 24th in the league in wOBA against righties. They strike out 22% of the time and I'm hard pressed to think they do significant damage to Cobb today.
Roenis Elias FanDuel 6300 DraftKings 8500 DraftStreet 13888
Elias has kind of come out of nowhere to pitch effectively in the first third of the season. He's putting down batters to the tune of eight K's per nine and the xFIP is a manageable 3.71. I'm willing to consider him today because the Rays aren't a strong offensive team and Tropicana plays to pitchers. It's tough to put one out there and that really raises the floor of even the most mediocre pitcher.
Consider Matt Garza and Roberto Hernandez
Really hate what's going on here today.
Evan Gattis FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 7050
I do like Gattis though. A lot going for him today as he rates out high in our system. He is significantly better against lefties rocking a 140 wRC+ and .889 OPS against that hand over the last year. Plus Chase Field gives a slight bump in power to left field. Gattis is a solid value across the board in this spot especially with the position being pretty weak after him. Love catching a guy on the dominant side of his split like this in a hitter's park.
John Jaso FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 3400 DraftStreet 5556
He draws the starts against righties and faces a pitcher in Kevin Gausman who appears to stink. Jaso is more of a cash game play I think as his expectation isn't crazy out of the box. But it's there. His OPS is close to .900 this season, with almost all of it coming against righties. The A's are good that way. But where they hurt us is their tendency to pinch-hit for their catchers late in games based on matchup. This happens with Norris as well and can rob important ABs late in contests. Keep that in mind. But all the other signs are trending positive.
Jason Castro FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 5470
Really only considering this because the opponent plays perfectly to Castro's biggest weakness. Kyle Gibson doesn't strike anyone out. Sure, he's found ways to get out of innings, really improving his xFIP recently, but the K isn't how he gets it done, averaging less than five K's per nine. Castro's far-and-away biggest issue is the strikeout. He is K'ing almost 30% of the time. The price reflects this problem. But I'm willing to take a shot on the long ball even with Target Field depressing power. It's that kind of day for catchers.
Mark Teixeira FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 6753
A little suspect because Kauffman Stadium depresses power to all sides, which probably limits the upside of the Yankees as a whole. But still, it remains that Tex is a clear cut play when facing lefties. He has .908 OPS against lefties over the last year plus, a full 170 point difference in splits. Danny Duffy has some skills. But he also has control issues. I'm looking for Tex to exploit that today.
Adrian Gonzalez FanDuel 3700 DraftKings 4900 DraftStreet 7649
Going to look awfully similar to yesterday. Gonzo heads into Coors with the rest of his Dodger friends and gets a bump in the home run multipliers from the insane Coors park factors. A moderate power outage of late has his price depressed, but this is why major league teams visit Denver, to boost the old long ball stats.
Jose Abreu FanDuel 4600 DraftKings 4900 DraftStreet 8332
For his sort major league career Abreu has been much better against righties. This is of course too small a sample size to go nuts for, at least from the splits end. But we need to mention that his .977 OPS against righties is a nice number. It's bolstered enormously by an insanely unsustainable 35% Hr/FB ratio. So don't go crazy for the guy. Against Matt Shoemaker though you can get him in play. Shoemaker is decent, with a solid K rate. But Abreu looks to be an elite hitter. Not my top pick, but consider him.
Also consider Ryan Howard
Jason Kipnis FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 6515
Do you like buying super low on good players? Is this something that interests you? Do you have dreams? I know I do. Well let me tell you about a fantastic opportunity to get in on the ground floor. The ground floor! On a dude redonk underpriced thanks in large part to some injuries and a Babip 50 points less than his career average. Kipnis is everywhere for me at these prices today. You'll want to be on board when the Babip and Hr/FB% regress to the mean.
Chase Utley FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 6103
Alfredo Simon offers a couple of reasons to like Utley today. First of all Simon is much worse than advertised with an xFIP more than a run worse than his ERA. Also, Simon gets blown up by lefties who have a .327 wOBA off him this season. Basically Simon kind of stinks and Utley (along with some other lefty Phillies) makes a strong play. Utley's rocking an .870 OPS this season (a little Babip-y), but is struggling in the home run department. Let's turn that around today against a guy who gets bitten by lefties.
Brian Roberts FanDuel 2400 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 4794
For the late slate I think I'm just going to punt second base. Some of the higher priced options have bad matchups which I'm going to avoid for the salary. Roberts isn't good, but he plays and is a little better against lefties. Good enough. Save money here and spend elsewhere.
Hanley Ramirez FanDuel 4200 DraftKings 5400 DraftStreet 9665
As long as his bat stays in Denver, I want him on my squads. Going to need to overpay a little for him as he's not one of the best points/ dollar guys on the day. But he hits righties really damn well (900 OPS over last year) and Chacin is pretty damned stinky. Oh and that clean, crisp, Denver air. Oh that air.
Starlin Castro FanDuel 2500 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 5941
He needs to make contact to have any value and the splits are even trending on the side of not good. But Castro is hitting in the middle of the order against a lefty at near minimum prices. Starlin has shown some power this season thanks to a little spike in HR/FB rate, something that will probably not continue. But I don't have a bunch of faith in Randy Wolf continuing the pace he's on, mostly based on career track record. Castro makes a solid value play in our model.
Asdrubal Cabrera FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 6115
Asdrubal is better against righties and Tepesch rates as about a mediocre big league starter. Not a fantastic option, but solid. Cabrera is your typical shortstop in that he doesn't do anything particularly well, but probably won't kill you either.
Consider Andrelton Simmons
Carlos Santana FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 5614
Good news: He's back from the concussion. Bad news: He's hitting near the bottom of the order. He did grab a hit and draw a walk last night so here's to hoping his head is right again. I'm still very much a believer in Santana. His Babip is so crazy low this season and the walks are up. In fact, for as bad as his average has been Santana is still getting on base 33% of the time. This keeps his basement high with room for upside against an average pitcher like Tepesch. I'm still buying here.
Mike Olt FanDuel 2400 DraftKings 3300 DraftStreet 3557
The sample size is small but we take what we're given right? And what we're given here is some evidence that Olt manhandles lefties. Even with a miniscule Babip, Olt has a 158 wRC+ and .958 OPS against that hand. In fact, the low Babip with the high OPS has me even more encouraged about the small sample. Faces Randy Wolf today, a guy I refuse to believe is the second coming based on his early returns. I just won't believe it. Olt is a punt play with high, high upside.
Evan Longoria FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 6459
Some of the other third base options are catching guys on the wrong side of their splits. Longoria gets a bump here because lefties are his bread and butter with a .904 OPS against them over the last year. The issue is more that something appears off about Longo. Could be an extended slump. Could be something else, but his .700-ish OPS this year is troubling. Rest assured, his problems aren't with lefties. He's got a 123 wRC+ against them this season with an OPS close to .800. Down from his career averages for sure, but some is attributed to a low HR/FB rate.
Consider Aramis Ramirez
So many solid options here today it's a bit difficult to narrow them down.
Shin-Soo Choo FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 7085
Josh Tomlin has been a good pitcher this season for sure. But I'm buying on Choo pretty much everywhere. His prices are so advantageous for his skill set that I want to have some exposure to him because his ceiling is high. Choo offers everything you would want from a DFS guy. Power? Check. Speed? Check. Gets on base? Yuppers. And he hits leadoff, giving him shots at an extra AB over the course of the game. Price is middling because of recent performance. Time to buy.
Justin Upton FanDuel 3800 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 7266
Could really be at the top of the list. Like I said, such a great day in the outfield. Upton is one (the?) best hitter off of lefties in all the game. Over the last year he has a 1.119 OPS and insane 205 wRC+ against southpaws. Those numbers are jaw-dropping and represent a nearly .250 point difference in his platoon splits. Basically lefties keep Justin Upton rich. He is just normal in every other way. Like I said, could be at the top of the list and for GPPs probably ranks ahead of Choo just on the upside. Really, with their prices, I think you should have both in your lineups.
Jay Bruce FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 3400 DraftStreet 5846
Billy Hamilton FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 5552
These guys almost always come together. You need not play them in tandem of course, but their considerations are always the same. They need to face righties and today get Roberto Hernandez who isn't great with an xFIP in the 4's. Great American Ballpark favors hitters lefty power in a big way which helps Bruce, who is crazy cheap. Roberto Hernandez puts a ton of guys on base and then lets them steal (-7 rSB for his career) which helps Hamilton. Love both of these guys today.
Coco Crisp FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 6949
I like his chances of getting on base against Gausman and I like the A's chances of putting up some runs against the guy. Crisp is still getting on base at a nice clip and has increased his walk rate this season. Needs to be on base and scoring runs to pay off, but I like his upside on that front today.
Matt Kemp FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 5495
Andre Ethier FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 6709
Don't even really need to explain this. They are going in Coors against a crappy pitcher in Chacin. If you need me to detail this email me personally and we can have a private discussion.
Domonic Brown FanDuel 2200 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 4527
Power might be sapped. But the ballpark is choice and Alfredo Simon isn't good. Coming in at punt prices and if you think the bat has any home runs left in it, he can pay the day with one swing.
Adam Eaton FanDuel 2500 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 4611
Alejandro De Aza FanDuel 2300 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 3543
I don't mind these guys as two late slate options coming at punt prices. Both have their merits, de Aza has been especially unlucky this season.
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