Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftStreet, and DraftKings 6/5/14

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Pitchers

Madison Bumgarner FanDuel 9400 DraftKings 11100 DraftStreet 18594
I don't think I'm paying all the way up for Tanaka today. He's simply too expensive and the A's are a solid hitting team. Masahiro is priced out of consideration. But not Bumgarner. He's a bit expensive on DraftKings, but on FanDuel he's a solid price and DraftStreet seems like a downright steal. Bumgarner's been one of the best pitchers in baseball this year sporting an 2.86 xFIP (2.85 ERA, he's the truest of the true) , K-ing 10.5 per nine innings and limiting the walks as usual. He's just so solid. And the Reds are just so meh for the season, and that's with Votto grouped into some of the stats. Bumgarner is the cash game play for sure between price and expectation. Solid upside as well.

Doug Fister FanDuel 7600 DraftKings 7500 DraftStreet 16524
Another possible cash game consideration is Fister. This is a guy who punches walks in the face. Literally. He hates them How else to explain to the 0.61 BB/9 rate he's rocking. That is an insane number, small sample size be damned. The Phillies are near the bottom of the league against right-handed pitching and strike out about 20% of the time. That latter number isn't terribly high, but it's something. Fister won't score you a lot of points with the strikeout, but he isn't a favorite to get rocked because he induces groundballs and gives no free passes. I like the price on him as a mid-tier play for multi-pitcher sites.

Travis Wood FanDuel 7100 DraftKings 6800 DraftStreet 14564
While the Mets rank around the middle of the league in wOBA against lefties, there is one number sticking out like a sore thumb: 25.5%. That's their K rate against southpaws. For the time being this is the worst in the league. Wood is not as bad as his 5.15 ERA would suggest as his xFIP sits a full run lower. Of course a 4.00 xFIP is also not something to write home about (though he might, I don't know the guy or his personal standards for success, or whether he can write) but it can get the job done against a team heavy on the whiffs. Wood's K/9 is around eight. He's a fine pitcher facing a below average team.

Jacob deGrom FanDuel 6200 DraftKings 9500 DraftStreet 13136
I'm going here just for a little upside. deGrom definitely has swing and miss stuff. In his short MLB stint he's striking out close to a batter an inning. He also has big time walk stuff giving free passes almost five times per nine. That latter number kills his safety but the former really gives him a nice ceiling against the Cubs who rank dead last in the league in wOBA against righties.

*A note on Michael Wacha. I think the guy is awesome. I am just a little concerned about playing him because the Royals, while a bad offense, never strikeout. It has to be factored in and their K rate being so low really limits Wacha's upside. You can play him, but they get bats on the ball (weakly).

 

Catchers

Miguel Montero FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 5989
Has nothing to do with the monster he put up last night. But still getting the old Coors bump, at least for one more day. Montero's big boost so far this season has been limiting the strikeouts. In fact, he's cut his K% almost in half from last season. That's quite a feat. As long as he's playing in the Mile High air and facing a righty, he's in play. Lyles gets his share of groundballs, but isn't exactly a lights out arm.

Wilson Ramos FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 5554
Kyle Kendrick kind of* blows. He's as mediocre as pitchers get. Guy just looks boring. Doesn't strike anyone out at all. Walks a few guys here and there. Is basically in the majors to take up space and pitch innings until the season ends. Ramos is above average against righties with a 102 wRC+ for his career. This isn't great mind you, but when you put it with Kendrick's expectation he starts looking a lot better at a weak position.
*totally blows

Strongly consider Victor Martinez

 

First Basemen

Mark Teixeira FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 5933
Our system consistently loves the guy. Part of this is his price never really fluctuates. He isn't a peaks and valleys kind of guy. Tex is Tex. Workman-like. But know this, dude is awesome against lefties, OPS-ing over 900 for the last year against them. Pomeranz, despite the low ERA, has an xFIP closer to four. Dude has K stuff, but also walks a ton of guys. Tex is a patient hitter and should be able to take advantage of Yankee Stadium boosting power both ways.

Chris Davis FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 6998
Like Crush for a lot of the same reasons as yesterday. He's facing a weak pitcher in a hitter's ballpark. Basically Colby Lewis is a rich man's Nick Martinez. Guy isn't good and Davis manhandles righty pitching. Went yard last night and his price is still very much in the value zone. He's a super solid play his monster upside because he makes the long ball look easy.

Anthony Rizzo FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 6565
Our system is still very much buying on Rizzo. A big reason, I believe, is the walk rate. He's taking free passes around 16% of the time, a big jump from last year. This really limits his downside. And the power is there as well. Rizzo is turning into the player we've been waiting for. And remember, deGrom's problem is the walks. Solid spot for Rizzo today.

Strongly consider Justin Morneau against Arroyo and Miguel Cabrera

 

Second Basemen

Ian Kinsler FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 6625
Kinsler is the top second base option today and it really isn't close. He's so far ahead of the field in terms of raw points and points per dollar that I'm hesitant to even recommend anyone else. But because he isn't available in the late games, I guess I have to. Kinsler is significantly better against lefties and JA Happ is worse than many other major league pitchers. This one is real easy. For the early slate Kinsler should be in all of your lineups.
Late Slate Games
Ben Zobrist FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 5145
Might be breaking out of his funk and coming back fully from injury. Zobrist is a decent, sort of safe option facing Jacob Turner today. The latter isn't a K guy and Zobrist should put the ball in play. He doesn't do any one thing particularly well, but he can pitch in with a little power, a little speed and he isn't a risk to go down swinging a ton (which few people are at risk of when they face Jacob Turner).

Aaron Hill FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 6330
I'd consider him mostly because of Coors and because the position in the later slate is looking a little weird with a bunch of guys grouped together. Hill isn't as good against righties, but is coming cheaper so I think he's in play today.

Consider Charlie Culberson if he plays again

 

Shortstops

Early slate shortstop is a mild disaster. I'm almost advocating punting it completely. I don't think it's a great idea to pay up for Reyes against Verlander. And the other options are just bad. Our system likes Jeter against the lefty, but I'm nonplussed about it. Leaving us with:

Ian Desmond FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 6699
After a horrid start to the season, Desmond has begun to turn it around. His last couple of weeks have been solid and he's got four home runs in the last ten days. Desmond's biggest issue is the strikeout making his matchup against Kyle Kendrick ideal. Kendrick isn't a fan of getting outs through the strikeout. He prefers to get his teammates in the mix, fielding the ball and whatnot.

Consider Derek Jeter in early slate as well.

Jean Segura FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 6725
Kevin Correia is horrible. Real bad. His xFIP is in the high fours (ERA even higher) and dude just can't strike guys out on the major league level. He's also below average letting up steals, with a -1 rSB this season. This all factors in to making Segura a strong play today, especially in the late slate. The Brewers stand to put up some runs today, and with Segura batting at the top of the order, he should see an extra at bat. Now let's get him off to the races.

Consider Elvis Andrus

 

Third Basemen

David Wright FanDuel 3900 DraftKings 4900 DraftStreet 6363
Wright has an extreme split favoring him hitting lefties. It's drastic. His OPS is more than 200 points higher against lefties. These are the days to grab DW. While Travis Wood isn't a terrible pitcher, the split is just too overwhelming and Wright gets a nice boost in our system because of it. Wright's issue this year has been increased K's and decreased walks. Both are trending the wrong way. But consider this: he's only had 64 total plate appearances against lefties this season. In those he's got a wRC+ of 200. But having faced so many righties is dragging down his overall numbers. Let others be fooled by this. Start Wright tonight at a nice discount.

Evan Longoria FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 6515
He makes a solid early game play today against Jacob Turner. While Longo is a lot better against lefties, his early season struggles have depressed his price to the point that we can buy him on the wrong side of the split. This will happen at times and it's good to be aware of when a certain player reaches this point. Our system's multipliers account for this and Longoria is coming pretty cheap across the board.

Nick Castellanos FanDuel 2200 DraftKings 3300 DraftStreet 3078
If you are looking to punt third and save a ton of money, this is one way to go. For his career, Castellanos is better against lefties. Now it should be mentioned that he isn't really good against anyone, but he's less bad against southpaws. If you are stacking Tigers against Happ, Nick offers nice salary relief.

 

Outfielders

Austin Jackson FanDuel 2500 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 3734
Torii Hunter FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 6188
If you are stacking Tigers against Happ early then these two guys are one way to go. While both of these guys are pretty platoon neutral (Hunter is a near dead even over the past year), both get a bump because Happ is worse against righties for his career. The OPS around .760 off him through his time in the majors. Tigers will be the early stacking favorite and I think you need to have some exposure to them at least a little.

Shin-Soo Choo FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 6314
He's in a bit of a funk. Which in the DFS world is great news because it means his price is dropping fast. Time to start buying. Choo has crushed righties for his career and gets Miguel Gonzalez in Texas. Gonzalez isn't great, though not terrible either. The big thing here is that Choo is coming at pretty significant discounts across the board on a day where OF is looking a little weak. This cold spell is merely a blip for Choo. Buy low now.

Christian Yelich FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 4855
We knew Yelich woudl settle down after his crazy Babip-fueled start. But remember, our projection system only works with stats moving out. We don't look in that rearview. Life's too short. Our algorithm simply identifies what guys like Yelich will do for the rest of the season. So it doesn't get enamored with the oodles of runs he's scored so far. Yelich doesn't offer much in the way of power. And doesn't have a ton of speed. But he hits at the top of the order and gets on base well enough. In fact, it appears as if his Babip might even be trending a little low right now.

Angel Pagan FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 5715
Not a guy who makes his way on to our picks too often, but this is a nice spot for Pagan. Leake is significantly worse against lefties and though lefty is Pagan's weaker side, it is mitigated to some degree by Leake's struggles with that side. Basically the multipliers work againt each other and Pagan comes out looking pretty good in the system.

Angel Pagan FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 5715
As long as he's filling in for Cargo and playing in Coors against a righty, Dickerson is very much in play as long as his price stays in check. Which it has.

Corey Dickerson FanDuel 3700 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 6363
Super boring. But kind of solid. We've said a bunch that Markakis is a good cash game play because he often comes cheap against righties and has a higher floor because his K% is so low. Plus if he's getting on base guys like Cruz, Jones and Crush are there not too far down the line.

Josh Hamilton FanDuel 3700 DraftKings 4900 DraftStreet 8111
Stick a little upside in your life tonight.
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Consider Gerardo Parra and Jayson Werth

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