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With the holiday and people heading out to their Memorial Day plans we will do a quick rundown today. Want you to get set, get those lineups and get to the barbecue. So a brief (for us) holiday set of picks coming. Enjoy the day everyone!
Prices are kind of all over the place so it's hard to make blanket statements on pitchers today. That being said, I'm not inclined to pay up for Cueto anywhere. We will have to make due with everyone else.
Yordano Ventura FanDuel 7900 DraftKings 9700 DraftStreet 15852
He's been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season and the prices just refuse to catch up. He strikes out more than a batter an inning and keeping his walk rate down. Ventura's xFIP is right in line with his sub-3 ERA and nothing about his performance suggests what he is doing is luck. He's been great. The Astros have the highest K% in the league against righties at 24.2%. Ventura is in play in all formats today and is coming at discount pretty much everywhere.
Drew Hutchison FanDuel 6100 DraftKings 9000 DraftStreet 14468
Here's another guy who has been so solid this year, but very few people have taken notice. His xFIP is in the mid threes and his K/9 gives him upside at these prices even facing the Rays who don't K a ton. It's actually only the opponent who gives me pause here as I love what I've seen from Hutchison.
Nathan Eovaldi FanDuel 6600 DraftKings 8300 DraftStreet 10947
His early season strikeout rate may have been a blip on the radar, but I'm still willing to buy on the guy. His K's are way down the last two games, but the Nats are 12th in the league in K% and in the bottom half of the league in wOBA against righties. Nice spot and price for Eovaldi.
Ervin Santana DraftStreet 13375
Not recommending him everywhere, but on DraftStreet you can more than swing the salary. The Red Sox have had their troubles this season, and aren't nearly the World Series champion you'd expect. Santana has been super solid with an xFIP in the low threes.
Derek Norris FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 4444
Really hammers lefty pitching, sporting a 1.000 OPS over the last year with that split. He typically hits near the top of the order with lefties on the mound and I expect that to happen again today.
Miguel Montero FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 3843
Montero has extreme splits favoring righties so you want to begin by targeting those matchups. What I like about him this season is how much he's cut down on K's and kept his walk rate in the 11% range. He's also on his way to one of his better power seasons. And he's playing in Arizona where power for lefties gets a little boost.
Tyler Flowers FanDuel 2400 DraftKings 3200 DraftStreet 4149
One strategy I like to take at times is to target guys like Flowers, who strike out a ton, when they face low K pitchers. The thought process here is that the hitter's price is depressed because of the amount of outs made through K's but that expectation is lower when squaring off against dudes like Josh Tomlin who pitch more to contact. Even with the strike outs Flowers has over an .800 OPS this season and has some power upside.
Jarrod Saltalamacchia FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 3300 DraftStreet 4844
Follows much of the same thinking as Flowers above. Salty is a K machine who also displays above average power for a catcher (more than Flowers). He faces Tanner Roark who K's less than seven per nine. Washington is about power neutral for lefties and Roark has been a little ERA lucky this season.
Consider Hank Conger if he starts
Edwin Encarnacion FanDuel 4800 DraftKings 5200 DraftStreet 9642
E5 has the highest expectation of any first basemen today as he faces off against a crappy lefthander. Bedard isn't good. And even though Encarnacion has actually been slightly better against righties over the last year, this is still a great time to buy on him.
Chris Davis FanDuel 4600 DraftKings 5200 DraftStreet 8499
Always near the top of the list to go yard, Crush is still on my buy list even with the matchup against Lohse. The price is manageable and upside high for a guy who, even if running hot last year, is one of the best power bats in the league. (Update: Crush is out on paternity leave. Thanks to @mattbell211 for catch)
Eric Hosmer FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 5682
Doesn't quite fit the mold of your power-hitting first basemen, but gets the job done. Hosmer's been hitting a ton of doubles this year, contributing to a higher total base count on that end. But the power hasn't been there. That's in large part to a 1.8% HR/FB rate. Be on board when that number regresses. Long balls coming.
Strongly consider Miguel Cabrera (though he's expensive), Joe Mauer and Nick Swisher
Ian Kinsler FanDuel 3900 DraftKings 4900 DraftStreet 8606
The top second base option on the day though you'll need to pay for him in some spots. Kinsler has an OPS one hundred points higher against lefties and has a 130 wRC+ and .370 wOBA against them over the last year. Today he crushes Tommy Milone.
Neil Walker FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 7154
You'll always see us picking him along with Pedro Alvarez below. That's because we target both against weak righties. They both have huge splits favoring this hand and carry home run potential in those situations.
Scooter Gennett FanDuel 2400 DraftKings 3400 DraftStreet 4761
A slightly cheaper option but Gennett is a solid play today against Tillman who is susceptible to the long ball. Gennett, even in a small sample size, has great splits favoring him hitting against righties.
Consider Chase Utley
Erick Aybar FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 7262
Chris Young is trash. I only wish there were more lefty Angels to pick up today. Some of the righties though are in play, especially the ones like Aybar with relatively even platoon splits. Shortstops like Aybar really rely on others around him to boost the value because they kind of don't do anything. But I think the Halos put up numbers on Young today. Aybar is actually one of the highest projected points guys we have at shortstop today.
Elvis Andrus FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 6668
This is going the wrong way with splits, something I usually don't like doing. But we can make exceptions when garbage pitchers are on them mound. Looking at you Kevin Correia. He of he 6.52 ERA and 4.82 K/9 rate. Andrus is for sure worse against righties, but bad pitching is bad pitching and the price on Elvis is fine is most places.
Troy Tulowitzki FanDuel 5300 DraftKings 5600 DraftStreet 11262
Need not be an expert to figure this one out. He is further down the list because of price only. His point/ dollar expectation is much lower on the list of shortstops, but except on DraftStreet, he's not as low on the list as he's been. This is because he's facing Kyle Kendrick in Philly (which isn't Coors, but also isn't too far behind in terms of righty power). With some cheaper pitchers in play today I think Tulo can squeeze his way into some of your lineups.
Consider punting with Andrew Romine
Carlos Santana FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 4650
You buying? He just keeps getting on base. And man does that limit the downside and leave room for insane upside once the Babip and HR/FB come around. Santana is a bit better against lefties and Quintana is about a league average pitcher.
Pedro Alvarez FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 5841
Jacob deGrom is pretty much what you;d expect from a guy you've never heard of. And though I don't like how Citi Field supresses power to lefties, Alvarez's price is fine considering the matchup.
Brett Lawrie FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 4554
He is actually a reverse splits guy over the last year, hitting just a little better against lefties. But Bedard sucks. Really he does. You've probably stacked against him before and been burned. But believe me, he's bad.
Consider Matt Carpenter
Some real nice options here to round out your lineups.
Jose Bautista FanDuel 4200 DraftKings 5300 DraftStreet 8491
In terms of raw expectation, Bautista is number one on our list of outfielders today. He isn't the most valuable from a points/dollar standpoint, but for such a big salary, he isn't too far down the list. With some cheaper bats in other places you can definitely fit his salary. Bautista does dirty and disgusting things to lefties. And Bedard sucks.
Shin-Soo Choo FanDuel 4100 DraftKings 4900 DraftStreet 8435
Choo is another high price tag OF with a great expectation today. He of course crushes righties and Kevin Correia is really someone he can eat alive. Choo is an on-base machine and when facing pitchers like Correia who abhor the K, well I think you can see where I'm going here. The only downside is playing in Minnesota depresses power to lefties. But Choo's ability to cover ground in a number of categories keeps his floor high.
Michael Cuddyer FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 8343
Over the course of the last year Cuddyer has been actually better against righties. His OPS over that time is .929 with a .400 wOBA and 143 wRC+. Some of this is for sure Coors-aided. But the numbers are real independent of ballpark. And it isn't like Philly is a pitcher's park. Has come back from injury and mashed.
Kole Calhoun FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 7577
I'd say he's relatively off of people's radars having spent some time on the DL and hit only slightly. But some of his lack of success is due to a .226 Babip and some extra K's on the resume. But oh man, Chris Young doesn't strike anyone out and Calhoun has about an .800 OPS over the last year against righties. He won't be a heavy start and I think he makes a strong GPP play for that reason.
Alejandro De Aza FanDuel 2300 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 4061
Whenever possible today I want to pick on bad pitching. When I can get guys at discounts because they've been running bad, well all the better. de Aza's Babip is a crazy low .207, more than .120 points lower than his career averages. He's pretty platoon neutral and the IFFB% has killed him this year. That will regress and I think we are buying punt prices on a guy who should be higher.
Austin Jackson FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 5130
Want to target some Tiger bats against Machine Gun Milone and JAckson fits the bill. He's another guy who's actually been more a reverse splits guy over the the last year, but the range isn't huge.
Yoenis Cespedes FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 6201
Not a crazy disparate split against lefties, but still better against that hand. I detailed yesterday why I was so excited about Cespedes's underlying numbers, especially his diminishing K%. The same idea applies today against Smyly.
Consider Adam Eaton and Matt Holliday
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