Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftStreet, and DraftKings 5/25/14

Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftStreet, and DraftKings 5/25/14

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Pitchers

Masahiro Tanaka FanDuel 10400 DraftKings 12200 DraftStreet 23411
If between Tanaka and Wainwright today (because they are the definitive aces taking the mound) I'm going Tanaka. They are similarly priced super high so rolling both on multiple SP sites will be real tough. In fact, for the prices, I think you want to see your opponents roll Wainwright.

Quick comparisons:
Tanaka: 10.27 K/9, 1.13 BB/9, 2.14 xFIP
Waino: 8.01 K/9, 1.85 BB/9, 3.10 xFIP

These are pretty substantial differences. But the reason they are the same price is Wainwright's Babip and HR/9 are looking super lucky while, if anything, Tanaka has probably been running bad in that latter stat. Tanaka gets a slightly better opponent in the White Sox, but they are still without Jose Abreu and strikeout a ton as a team. Tanaka is the play. Hope your opponents pay up for Wainwright at less than optimal price points.

Madison Bumgarner FanDuel 9000 DraftKings 9600 DraftStreet 21291
He isn't flashy, but he gets the job done. Bumgarner has been putting in the kind of season he seems to always put in. Low 3's ERA, striking out a batter an inning, about 2.5 walks a game. If you look back at his last few seasons they all just appear identical. It's pretty amazing really. Today he faces the Twins who strikeout 23% of the time against lefties and sit about middle of the pack in team wOBA. Bumgarner is a solid cash game play if you want to save a few bucks from the big boys.

Dallas Keuchel FanDuel 7700 DraftKings 10300 DraftStreet 21146
He was pushed back from yesterday to today. Here are my thoughts from Saturday. Really nothing has changed.
Our system hasn't caught up to his performance yet, but that's fine. Sometimes you need to use some just good only genius-level judgment (works for me, try it) and roll with a dude who is bringing it this season. The big thing for Dallas this season has been limiting the walks. He's taken his BB/9 from 3.05 to 1.75, keeping needless batters from reaching base. It's working. His ERA and xFIP are below 3 and he's keeping the ball in the ballpark. The Mariners are 26th in the league in wOBA against lefties. Keuchel is coming real cheap on FanDuel and in the second tiering on DraftKings and DraftStreet.

Josh Beckett FanDuel 6800 DraftKings 8900 DraftStreet 16944
Ian Kennedy FanDuel 6700 DraftKings 9000 DraftStreet 17748
I'm popping these two guys together in the same writeup because they are about as interchangeable as two guys can be on a given day. They face the Phillies and Cubs respectively, the 25th and 27th teams in team wOBA against righties. Both teams strike out more than 20% of the time against righties. Both Beckett and Kennedy strike out about a batter an inning. For my money, I think I would go Kennedy if forced to choose. All of his numbers are just a bit better than Beckett's (xFIP kind of a lot better). But both are solid.

Catchers

Evan Gattis FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 5731
He's back from the flu or whatever the hell was bothering him. Good news because you want him in lineups when lefties are on the bump. Gattis has OPS'ed around .820 over the last year against southpaws with a 120 wRC+. Franklin Morales is no prince (though the Braves K against everyone). I'm not typically a big Gattis fan, but this is a solid spot for him.

Miguel Montero FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 5385
It's the rare and elusive Montero vs. Montero matchup we've all been waiting for. Getting pumped yet? I'm not, but maybe that's the kind of thing that excites you. What jazzes me is Miguel facing a righty quad A arm. Montero doesn't strike out a ton, puts the ball in play and has close to an .800 OPS against righties over the last year. His Babip is a little low and he's walking almost as much as he K's. Solid.

Brian McCann FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 6875
Andre Rienzo is trash and McCann is still a little underpriced from early season run bad. He isn't the insane value he used to but, lefty Yankee bats are in play.

Strongly consider Jonathon Lucroy and Derek Norris

First Basemen

David Ortiz FanDuel 3800 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 8874
Odorizzi is a flyball pitcher who has some tendencies that lean toward walking everyone. Even with the strikeout potential, Papi is about the last hitter you want to see if you can't manage the strike zone effectively. Ortiz gets a little bump down because of the ballpark and the Rays stellar defense. But I still think Papi handles Odorizzi today.

Chris Davis FanDuel 4300 DraftKings 5200 DraftStreet 8844
Crush is a guy to consider in GPP formats today. Trevor Bauer isn't as good as his 2.25 ERA would suggest and he's had some major long ball problems in his career. Namely: he lets up a lot of them. Davis probably isn't as good as what he showed last season, but he's pretty damn good, still OPS'ing nearly .900 this season. Of course he could easily strike out three times today, but the upside is there, making him a solid tournament play.

Paul Goldschmidt FanDuel 4200 DraftKings 5200 DraftStreet 8428
He doesn't make out rankings too often because the price is always so high. But it's come down a bit across the board and he faces a Rafael Montero who is struggling to adjust in the majors. Look for the Snakes to take advantage. Goldschmidt is equal opportunity against righties and lefties; he crushes them both equally. He's been great so far this season with a 146wRC+. Look for it to continue today.

Mark Reynolds FanDuel 2600 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 5343
He's super cheap across the board and facing a lefty Randy Wolf, back from an extended absence. Reynolds is basically all or nothing. He strikes out at a 35% clip. This is an absolutely insane number. But when he makes contact the ball leaves the park. He already has eleven on the season. This is nothing more than a GPP play if you are trying to get some bigger bats or one of the ace pitchers in.

Strongly consider Albert Pujols and Ryan Howard

Second Basemen

Anthony Rendon FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 6504
Rendon has seen his price plummet lately because of an extended slump. This being baseball and all, we should come to expect dry spells from players. It's what makes the DFS scene great. That we don't necessarily have to suffer through it with a player like in seasonal leagues. That being said, it can bite you if you continue buying a guy in a slump. Rendon's last few weeks have been bad. But we know he hits lefties much, much better than righties and gets Liriano on the hill today. Liriano is fine, but I like how much the tag on Rendon has dipped. I think you can start buying him again, especially when the split is in his favor.

Chase Utley FanDuel 3800 DraftKings 5000 DraftStreet 7206
He's not hitting home runs any more. But he's still hitting having reached safely at least once in nine of his last ten games. He is such a solid cash game play because of how much contact he makes. And I think the home runs are going to come. The HR/FB rate is about half of his career average and the long ball has always been an issue for Beckett. The park helps as well and this is a great spot for Chase.

Daniel Murphy FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 7185
Another decent cash game play, Murphy is a contact hitter who rarely strikes out. This is worth noting because facing Bronson Arroyo is something many lefties get aroused about. Arroyo has been getting killed by righties this season, but over his career, gets slaughtered by lefties. Last season alone he allowed a .355 wOBA against that side of the plate. Murph-dog seems likely to reach base against Bronson.

Howie Kendrick FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 6641
Nice to target against lefties and it'll be tempting to be on a bunch of righty Halo bats today against Jason Vargas.

Shortstops

Jean Segura FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 5990
Segura has an OPS about one hundred points higher against lefties and like the guys below him on this list, finds himself on a stackable team at a cheap price. That's my theme at shortstop today. Grab some guys whose teams stand to score some runs. The difference between Segura and the guys below him is the speed. He can swipe bags and that really boosts his value today against Wolf.

Andrelton Simmons FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 3100 DraftStreet 5676
Simmons is what he is: a slick-fielding shortstop that puts his bat on the ball. The ball doesn't really go anywhere when he hits it, but at least he doesn't strike out right? I'm not looking to spend any significant amount of money on shortstops today so I want a guy whose team stands to score some runs. One of those teams is the Braves against Morales. I'm happy to let his teammates knock him in.

Erick Aybar FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 5429
Fits very much the same mold as Simmons. Hits only a little bit. Doesn't really steal bases. Is just kind of around being on a team with other guys who can hit. And that kind of fortune really has its benefits. Aybar typically hits just a few slots behind the big guns of Trout, Pujols and to a lesser extent Kendrick. This is super advantageous and against Vargas makes Aybar firmly in play as he's better against lefties.

Consider Ian Desmond

Third Basemen

Carlos Santana FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 3948
Pretty much in must-play status on DraftStreet and in play everywhere else. Santana has been a run-bad all-star this season but still walks enough to mitigate much of the downside associated with his Babip being microscopic. He had a big game yesterday and I foresee an uptick as he gets out of the mire of bad luck. Miguel Gonzalez is a league-average pitcher and Santana's prices are still low due to his early season performance.

Martin Prado FanDuel 2300 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 4898
The splits aren't in his favor really, but the punt prices are. He is striking out more than his career numbers, which could point to some underlying issue. But I'm willing to take a risk on Prado today because he won't cost anything and the D-Backs could stand to put some runs up on Montero.

Josh Donaldson FanDuel 4400 DraftKings 5200 DraftStreet 9254
Only this far down the list because of the salaries. He's one of the most expensive guys in the industry. But it's because he manhandles lefty pitching. He has a .434 wOBA against lefties over the last year with a 190 wRC+. Against J.A. Happ, Donaldson is very much a favorite to be on base.

Consider Yangervis Solarte

Outfielders

There are some big bats today who are real intriguing.
Ryan Braun FanDuel 4200 DraftKings 5300 DraftStreet 8900
Braun's been in and out of the lineup this season which I'm not so hot about. And a big percentage of his home runs came in one game. Another knock. But man, getting to face Randy Wolf, a guy who hasn't pitched in the majors in more than a year, and wasn't real good before that. Now is a great time to snag Braun, who is actually running a little bad off his career Babip. Pretty significant upside today from one of the elite hitters in the game who has OPS'ed over 1.000 against lefties over the last year.

Justin Upton FanDuel 4000 DraftKings 5300 DraftStreet 8525
There is a little smoke and mirror thing going on with some of Upton's early season numbers. He is striking out a ton and his Babip is high. Plus his HR/FB rate is an astounding 25%. That is about as high as you'll see this far into the season. So why am I recommending him? Because he is also significantly better against lefties, to the tune of a 183 WRC+ and .436 wOBA over the last year. Franklin Morales isn't a good pitcher and even though Upton's tag is a bit inflated he makes a great play today.

Mike Trout FanDuel 4600 DraftKings 5800 DraftStreet 9497
Won't be number three on many lists for the rest of his career. And the only reason he is this far down is the price tag. His salary across the industry is where it should be for a top three (two? one?) offensive player in the game. So you'll have to pay. But man the matchup is so juicy. J.A. Happ is one of the worst starters to take the mound consistently every five days. His xFIP is near five and he walks everyone. Trout crushes everyone but lefties a bit better. He's put up a 184 wRC+ over the last year.

Yoenis Cespedes FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 7299
He is a step down from the three guys above, but still very much in play. Jason Vargas isn't in the J.A. Happ mold of shittiness but Cespedes bombs lefties and Vargas doesn't have an elevated K/9 rate that scares me off in daily matchups. Cespedes has cut down on his K's this season and raised his walks a bit more. His Babip is about fifty points lower than his career average. I really think Cespedes is poised for a monster breakout run. He went yard yesterday and his underlying numbers are headed in all the right directions.

Jacoby Ellsbury FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 6969
Slumping something awful. Something real awful. Be around when he breaks out of it. Andre Rienzo is just the kind of guy to kick start that trend.

Jayson Werth FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 6199
Werth is another guy who's seen his price drop over the last couple of weeks. An extended homerless streak will do that to you. But man what he does against lefties is just something isn't it? Over the last year Werth has a 197 wRC+ and .457 wOBA against them. That's about as high as you'll ever see for one split. Even against Liriano he is in play because of the platoons.

Khris Davis FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 5569
He, like his teammate Reynolds, has a major strikeout problem. But if you are ever going to really stack Brewers, especially the righty variety, now is the day. Khris is all or nothing, but he's cheap and I think you can throw the Brew Crew together today in some stacks against Wolf.

Some other cheap considerations:
Christian Yelich FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 6575
Nick Markakis FanDuel 2600 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 6289
Curtis Granderson FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 6019

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