Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftStreet, and DraftKings 5/14/14

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Pitchers

Masahiro Tanaka FanDuel 9700 DraftKings 11900 DraftStreet 24815
Though the Mets have actually hit pretty well in their time in Yankee Stadium this series, they haven't faced a pitcher like Tanaka. In no uncertain terms Tanaka has been amazing this season. He is striking out more than 10 batters per 9 and is rocking a crazy low xFIP of 2.18. The Mets, despite some recent successes are still near the bottom of the league in hitting against righties. On sites like FanDuel, Tanaka is still completely reasonable in terms of price. On the other sites your decision is a little harder as he'll cost a bit more. But this is a great cash game play. He's been too good, and the Mets too bad to not have him in there as a safe play.

Johnny Cueto FanDuel 9800 DraftKings 12500 DraftStreet 26384
Your other cash game option. I think for my preferences I'd save a few dollars and go Tanaka, but Cueto is right there too. Gets the terrible Padres offensive that, even while running a little bad, is still pretty dreadful. Cueto has been nails this season even if his ERA is a little luck fueled. He has an insane 99.5% strand rate. That my friends will not remain so high for much longer. It simply cannot. He also has a .161 Babip that will begin to regress. This kind of luck is actually why he is a little overpriced. But still a solid, safe-ish option today.

Michael Wacha FanDuel 8500 DraftKings 10000 DraftStreet 22006
The Cubs poured it on the other night, lighting up the Cardinals and boat-racing them out of the park. Don't fear, that won't happen again any time soon. At least not against a guy like Wacha. Wacha is bringing the heat this season, striking out nearly 11 batters per 9, limiting the walks and holding on to an xFIP under three. And the Cubs, even with that offensive outburst, remain very close to the bottom of the league in team wOBA against righties while striking out about 22% of the time.

Madison Bumgarner FanDuel 9200 DraftKings 9900 DraftStreet 21269
This is a boom or bust play because of the opponent. The Braves, while ranking near the top of the league in team wOBA and OPS against lefties, also strike out close to 27% of the time against southpaws. You read that number correctly. This gives opposing pitchers so much upside if they have their best stuff working. Bumgarner is a 1A kind of pitcher, not in the elite class, but not far below. And he has punch out potential. But beware, the Braves can hit. I wouldn't do him in cash games, but for the possible upside, this is a fantastic GPP play.

Garrett Richards FanDuel 6700 DraftKings 9200 DraftStreet 16577
I don't suspect Richards will maintain the minuscule 3% Hr/FB rate that has helped keep his ERA a little lower than his xFIP. But he has been a good, solid pitcher this early in the season. The Phillies are a weak offensive squad, coming in around the bottom half of the league in OPS against righties. They strike out a fair share and I think you can target Richards as a lower mid-tier pitching option with some upside.

 

Catchers

Jason Castro FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 4704
He shows up on our picks a lot, especially against righty flyball pitchers. Welcome back to the majors Nick Tepesch. Last time he was around, Tepesch gave up a 13% HR/FB rate and was an average/below-average pitcher. Not much has changed. Castro strikes out a lot, but has had an OPS well over 800 against righties over the last year with a 130 wRC+. For the money and the opponent he makes a great play today.

Brian McCann FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 5635
Been waiting for McCann to heat up after an unlucky start to the season and it seems to be happening. He went yard yesterday against Wheeler and now faces Rafael Montero in the righty's first major league start. It should be said that Montero had some pretty decent K numbers in the minors. But he's also making his major league debut in Yankee stadium against a tough offensive team. McCann would be my target for cash games today if I can swing the salary. Note: Thanks to reader Elias for pointing out game is in Citi Field, not Yankee Stadium. Projections were accurate, my analysis was a bit flawed

Jonathan Lucroy FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 6424
Liriano is a good, but wild pitcher. Lucroy is a dude with an extreme platoon split that favors him facing lefties. He's rocked an OPS of close to 900 over the last year against that hand. On a day with so many weak pitchers going, I don't want to have overexposure to even guys like Liriano who have decent strikeout potential. But Lucroy's splits are just tough to ignore.

Consider: Wilson Ramos, Alex Avila

 

First Basemen

David Ortiz FanDuel 3700 DraftKings 5000 DraftStreet 9555
Was a poster boy for DFSR yesterday that ended up being one of the top plays in all of baseball. Could basically give the same writeup from yesterday for Papi except this time insert Kevin Correia instead of Ricky Nolasco. The only difference would be that Correia is a worse pitcher. Correia is awful, doesn't strike anyone out and has an xFIP in the fives. This is a nice place to stack Red Sox and that should start with Ortiz, especially on efficiency sites. Ortiz won't lose you points to start. And he has big time upside against such a crappy arm.

Joey Votto FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 7199
Price is really getting crazy low in some spots. Buy low, now. I repeat, buy low now. Votto is just too good, consistent of a hitter to be hovering in the mid tier range. Even if he is facing a guy in Kennedy who's been strong on the mound so far this season. Votto has a .412 OPS and 164wRC+ OPS over the last year against righties and his price has dipped some. But he's shown the power stroke lately and I really think his prices are advantageous today.

Matt Adams FanDuel 2500 DraftKings 3400 DraftStreet 4264
Still should be in consideration against righties even though the power numbers haven't been quite there to start the season. Adams is a guy who hit real well last season and has 146 wRC+ against tha thand over the last year. His HR/FB rate this season is a low 5% which should come up as the season wears on. You'll want to buy on him as that number climbs and a few more of his hits become home runs.

Consider Chris Davis

 

Second Basemen

Ben Zobrist FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 6898
Brandon Maurer sucks. Bad. He strikes out no one and his xFIP is in the mid 4's. Zobrist is a solid, if unspectacular hitter who gets a bump from his placement at the top of the Rays order. This has led to him scoring a bunch of runs, while limiting his RBIs. He's slightly better against righties and significantly better (like all hitters) against shitty righties.

Robinson Cano FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 5000 DraftStreet 7118
Still coming at somewhat of a discount at a weaker offensive position. Cano's main issue this season has been the lack of home runs. He's only hit one as of this writing. But that's going to change. His HR/FB rate is an ungodly low 3%. His career average is almost 14%. What this means is that at some point those close calls are going to go over the wall. It's not a guarantee, but it sure stands to reason that this number will climb toward the mean. Cano is a fantastic buy low candidate even against Odorizzi's who's been generating a lot of strikeouts.

Brian Dozier FanDuel 3800 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 7482
Because Doubront was pushed back to today I am just Ctrl+C/ Ctrl+V some of the Twins guys as the considerations are exactly the same as yesterday.
A guy we want to hone in on against lefties. Felix Doubront has really struggled this season, especially with his control (what else is new) and Dozier, lo and behold, has been walking like a maniac. It could signal a shift in approach for him which really helps his value in cash games. Second base is a weak offensive position, but I really like this play.

Neil Walker FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 6942
Walker owns a massive platoon split that favors him facing righties and Wily Peralta, while decent, isn't the sub 3 ERA pitcher you see on the back of his baseball card. He's getting lucky and has an xFIP more in the mid 3's. Still good, but not elite as some numbers would suggest. He's also been getting tagged with home runs, one of Walker's specialties. Looking at Neil as a GPP play today.

Consider Aaron Hill

 

Shortstops

Would love to skip this position altogether today.

Troy Tulowitzki FanDuel 5700 DraftKings 5700 DraftStreet 10906
Going to get this one of out of the way first. His salaries are crazy high and extrememly difficult to fit into a lineup, especially on a night with some good top end pitching talent going. But he gets a great matchup against Jason Vargas who is really limited in his strikeout potential. Tulo is of course Tulo. He really needs no explanation unless you've emerged from some sport's deprived bunker in the desert. The question here is the money and I don't think you can spend it in anything other than a GPP. And even then you'll need some heavy duty punting options. But he's the best there is by a country mile in terms of raw point upside.

Ian Desmond FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 5166
For the rest of the position we are going to try and pick some guys off the margins. I'm willing to target Desmond in some GPP affairs because of his power upside. He's pretty platoon neutral so I'm not concerned with him facing the righty McCarthy. What I also like is that Desmond's big problem is the strikeout while McCarthy, over his career, has pitched to more contact. McCarthy's K numbers are up this season, but I think it's a blip. Hitting in the middle of the order at a low price has me targeting Desmond today.

Adeiny Hechavarria FanDuel 2200 DraftKings 3100 DraftStreet 4273
Hechavarria is not a good hitter. But he's less bad in his career against lefties. How's that for the soft sell? I am completely willing to punt shortstop today as I really dislike many of the big money option matchups.

Consider: Hanley Ramirez

 

Third Basemen

Trevor Plouffe FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 0 DraftStreet 4351
From yesterday:
Most Twins I've ever put out there in one picks article. Wow. Popping some champagne. Plouffe is another guy who gets amped for southpaws. He had a .359 wOBA against them last season, though hasn't come out of the gates too strong this season. I'm chalking it up to "it's early kind of still so not time to panic yet probably" or whatever the expert are calling it these days. Facing Doubront is a good way to get off the schnide, especially with Felix's dip in strikeouts. Like Plouffe at some cheaper salaries.

Matt Carpenter FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 4992
I want to believe in him still but it's getting harder and harder. He is striking out entirely too much, and his slugging percentage is lower than his on base. This is getting to be Luis Castillo territory. This is a guy with a 850 OPS against righties last season and Jason Hammel is about middle of the road (maybe a tick better). I believe the Cardinal offense is going to come around and start scoring runs in bunches and I'm willing to keep buying low on some of their guys.

Pedro Alvarez FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 6420
Many of the same reasons as Walker above. And you'll notice, if you read us enough, that these two are often recommended on the same day. We want to target them against righty pitchers, prone to the long ball. Peralta has been better this season, but again he can let up the homer and that is Alvarez's specialty.

Consider: Pablo Sandoval

 

Outfielders

Some real solid value plays in the outfield today. Lots of lower priced options to help you slot in some of the bigger pitching price tags. But before we get to those guys:

Giancarlo Stanton FanDuel 5100 DraftKings 5700 DraftStreet 10475
Ooh baby. Now we're talking. Among the best hitters in the game in general, and definitely against lefty pitching. Stanton has murdered southpaws over the course of the past year, putting up a 168 wRC+ with a .417 wOBA. These are crazy, hall-of-fame numbers and he needs to be on your radars. His tag is high but it's because of how much damage he can do here. He is the best outfielder in terms of raw point expectation.

Marcell Ozuna FanDuel 2500 DraftKings 3200 DraftStreet 7124
He goes right with Giancarlo. Ozuna is a splits guy and should be on your radar when he is facing a lefty. With Maholm on the bump today Ozuna makes a nice value play. He had an 800 OPS on that side of the split over the last year with a 350 wOBA. Maholm is bad (xFIP in the 5's) and I would love to stack a couple of righty Marlins.

Matt Joyce FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 6493
Still love putting in some of the lefty Rays' bats against Maurer today. Joyce is significantly better against righties, owning an OPS over 800 against that hand over the course of the last year. He has power upside and typically hits near the top of the order in these spots. This is a solid option for a very affordable price across the industry and you know I'll be stacking some of the Tampa dudes together today.

George Springer FanDuel 2400 DraftKings 3200 DraftStreet 5180
Still striking out at an insane rate, but he did take a couple of walks yesterday. Springer is still at a very low salary, is a highly touted talent and faces Nick Tepesch who is a below average pitcher. I'd prefer Springer against lefty, but I'll take crumby just the same.

Jacoby Ellsbury FanDuel 3700 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 7868
Montero for the Mets is unknown which makes Ellsbury very much in the discussion today. He is a great cash game play because his skill sets limits his downside considerably. He's hasn't taken advantage of Yankee Stadium's short porch in right but that 3.3% Hr/FB rate is off his career average of 8.2% and that didn't include an extended stay in one of the best home run parks for lefty hitters in the game. (FWIW Fenway is one of the worst for power for lefties). Ellsbury's home run numbers are going to climb quickly. Buy him now. Note: Thanks to reader Elias for pointing out game is in Citi Field, not Yankee Stadium. Projections were accurate, my analysis was a bit flawed

Consider Khris Davis, Alex Gordon, Chris Colabello

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