Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftStreet, and DraftKings 5/13/14

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Pitchers

David Price FanDuel 8900 DraftKings 10400 DraftStreet 21879
I know he got rocked by the Orioles last time out. These things happen of course. He had an impossible time putting hitters away late in counts and got torched by the long ball (his biggest flaw this season). But there is still time for him to regress to his mean. Because man has he been running bad this year. The HR/FB rate is way, way out of whack, at close to 16%. This will come down. His xFIP is almost a full two runs lower than his ERA and, outside of last game, he's been racking up the K's. I thought after last game we'd get him on a little discount. Not really, but he is only the fourth most expensive pitcher on most sites, and has a way better matchup than anyone above him. The Mariners are near the bottom of the league against lefties this season and if Price is going to regress this is the game.

Josh Beckett FanDuel 6300 DraftKings 9100 DraftStreet 18676
Hasn't been as good as his sub 3.00 ERA would suggest, but Beckett has definitely shown signs of life. He's striking out almost a batter an inning, and been decent. Again, some of his ERA numbers are behind a minuscule .224 Babip and a hopelessly high 84% strand rate. Those won't stay at those levels for long. But the Marlins are a weaker offensive team, especially on the road. I outlined some of this yesterday in my writeup on Haren. Cliff Notes: They've been lucky at home and unlucky on the road. They probably fall somewhere in the middle. But Beckett is real cheap in some spots today (especially FanDuel) and seems safe-ish.

Adam Wainwright FanDuel 10100 DraftKings 12500 DraftStreet 25474
For the dollars I definitely like Price more today. But Wainwright represents a somewhat safe play against the Cubs who rank near the bottom of the league against righties. The Cubs strikeout about 24% of the time and Wainwright can get his share of punchouts. Again, for the money I'd go Price, but this is a fine play.

Mike Leake FanDuel 6800 DraftKings 8200 DraftStreet 15611
Have to love the spot he's in today. The Padres are dead last in the league against righties this season with a gross .608 OPS. That's pathetic. But at least they strike out a bunch. Leake has been efficient, if unspectacular this season, running a little hot with Babip, but also sporting a solid mid 3's xFIP. Not a ton of upside, but I think the downside is limited because of the opponent. Not a bad cash game play on multi-pitcher sites.

Vidal Nuno FanDuel 4800 DraftKings 6300 DraftStreet 10925
Extreme upside play and nothing more. The Mets strike out at the highest rate in the league against lefties and Nuno can strike guys out. Again, this could be fraught with peril, so start at your own risk. But despite their offensive surge against the Yankees last, the Mets aren't good. Neither is Nuno so take it for what it's worth.

Consider: Dallas Keuchel

 

Catchers

Salvador Perez FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 5979
You should be on Perez any time a lefty is on the mound. Franklin Morales is one such opponent, a wild lefty with some strikeout potential combined with walk-the-ballpark potential as well. Perez is a lefty killer, with a career 150 wRC+ and crazy high .931 OPS. His price is completely reasonable across the board and is the top catching play today.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3400 DraftStreet 4885
Though I like Beckett today on the one hand it doesn't mean I won't be snagging a Marlin or two on the other (different lineups of course). I do think Beckett has run a little hot this season and for his career is worse against lefties. Salty has power upside and if you aren't going with Perez, I'd target the long ball at catcher.

Evan Gattis FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 5138
Speaking of home runs (and really nothing else) Gattis is basically a two true outcomes type of guy. Home run or wildly swinging on a strikeout. But in DFS the home run can win you the day, and the Grape can take balls out. I don't suspect Vogelsong to turn in a repeat Cy Young performance against the Braves.

Consider: Robinson Chirinos

 

First Basemen

David Ortiz FanDuel 3700 DraftKings 5000 DraftStreet 8323
Papi gets to face a flyball pitcher who doesn't strike anyone out. What more do you need to know here? Ortiz makes so much contact that he seems virtually guaranteed to have the ball in play multiple times in this game. This one could get ugly and Papi, who's running a little bad in Babip this season, makes a top play where he qualifies at first.

Adam Lind FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 6722
Justin Masterson really, really struggles against lefties, allowing a .354 wOBA against them this year. Teams are wise to this and will stack lefties against him in the order whenever possible. Lind has been crushing when he's been on the field this season, increasing his walk rate significantly and OPS-ing in the 900s. What a great spot to snag him, and really consider any lefties in the Blue Jay lineup against Masterson.

Joey Votto FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 7242
Still very much a cash game play even against an above average pitcher in Cashner. I say above average, because he is anything but great and remember that Votto is a solid seventy points off his career average in Babip. Still walks more than he strikes out and the ballpark in Cincinnati boosts power to lefties.

Freddie Freeman FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 8159
I have no faith in Vogelsong and still think we are buying low on Freeman on sites like FanDuel. He has been running bad, especially in the power department having not homered in a long time. This has kept his price in check. When he gets hot you'll be glad you stayed on him.

Consider: Miguel Cabrera on DraftStreet, Brandon Moss, Tyler Moore

 

Second Basemen

Jose Altuve FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 7155
Altuve is significantly better against lefties over the course of his career. He has extreme splits that favor him hitting against southpaws. In a small sample size this season he's hit .455 against them with a 195 wRC+. Matt Harrison is a pretty trashy lefty and with Altuve hitting at the top of the order, I think you can roster him in all formats.

Brian Dozier FanDuel 3800 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 8750
Another guy we want to hone in on against lefties. Felix Doubront has really struggled this season, especially with his control (what else is new) and Dozier, lo and behold, has been walking like a maniac. It could signal a shift in approach for him which really helps his value in cash games. Second base is a weak offensive position, but I really like this play.

Jedd Gyorko FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 5150
Speaking of second base being weak, I give you Mr. Gyorko. Our system still likes him, mostly because it doesn't recognize how fucking terrible he's been this season. This, I think, is a positive feature in our data construction because it helps to weed out some observation bias and when a guy is running bad. Gyorko is the latter case, with a Babip more than 80 points below his career average. Hits are coming for him and buying him super low is advantageous. He's hitting more grounders and I'll be concerned as that number solidifies. But for now I think you can still buy low.

Consider: Neil Walker

 

Shortstops

Hanley Ramirez FanDuel 4000 DraftKings 5000 DraftStreet 7124
Another guy we are still buying low on. Hanley has been unlucky this season and gets to face Jacob Turner, a pitcher who abhors the K. Just hates it. Refuses to do it like a kid folding his arms and saying, "Hell no" to his vegetables. Hanley should be putting the ball in play tonight, hoping to regress that Babip to the mean.

Jed Lowrie FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 6722
Lowrie hits righties well, walks more than he K's this season and faces Scott Carroll, a dude who in three starts is averaging a total of 2.6 K/9. Not going to see a number much lower than that. It's a borderline miracle the guy's ERA is only in the 3's. Not for long.

J.J. Hardy FanDuel 2200 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 5153
Still in play against lefties. Remember, JJ sported an OPS close to .800 against lefties last season and has pretty extreme splits favoring that side. He's coming at minimum prices in some spots (cheap everywhere) and gets to face Drew Smyly who's had an up and down run as a starter. Admittedly, Hardy deserves his punt salaries as he's been trash to start the year. And it isn't all him getting unlucky. His OPS is an abysmal .600 and shows only limited signs of hope. But if you are looking to save some bucks, go for it.

Consider: Jonathan Villar, Andrelton Simmons

 

Third Basemen

Trevor Plouffe FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 6328
Most Twins I've ever put out there in one picks article. Wow. Popping some champagne. Plouffe is another guy who gets amped for southpaws. He had a .359 wOBA against them last season, though hasn't come out of the gates too strong this season. I'm chalking it up to "it's early kind of still so not time to panic yet probably" or whatever the expert are calling it these days. Facing Doubront is a good way to get off the schnide, especially with Felix's dip in strikeouts. Like Plouffe at some cheaper salaries.

Carlos Santana FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 5299
Just need to figure out if you are getting R.A. Dickey on an off or on night. Dude is basically all or nothing and that will determine the fate of Santana and company today. Remember, Santana has a crazy 20% walk rate this season, and is taking more free passes than strikeouts. Unfortunately, that's the best part of his game, because when he swings bad things happen. But he has one of the biggest discrepancies between Babip and career average that you will see. He is getting massively unlucky. Hits will come. In the meantime he does raise his floor by taking the walks.

David Wright FanDuel 4100 DraftKings 5000 DraftStreet 8606
Crushes lefties and is playing in a stadium that boosts power numbers to right and left field equally. The is a great spot for a one-off on Wright and Nuno, while able to strike guys out, has trouble going deep into games. He's hittable. I like Wright's chances at going yard today.

Consider: Adrian Beltre, Manny Machado

 

Outfielders

This is a real weak bunch tonight. I am going cheap here I think.

Christian Yelich FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 0 DraftStreet 6018
Our system consistently loves his price. I could probably put him in the picks every time he faces a mid tier or lower righty. I didn't yesterday because I believe in Haren. That dude continues to burn me. Tonight it's Beckett. I'm putting Yelich here simply because the position is so weak and he has a skill set that limits his basement.

Denard Span FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 6171
Oof, see what I mean? Denard freaking Span nearly topping off the list of value plays in the outfield. What I'm mostly looking at here is Bronson Arroyo's feeble attempts over his career at limiting the damage by lefties. Span is really only a cash game play because his zero power upside, but I like his odds of getting on base, and I really like the Nats chances at scoring runs against Arroyo.

Chris Colabello FanDuel 2600 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 4999
Three Twins! The universe must be imploding on itself or something. But this is really how much our system hates Doubront against righties. This makes sense as over his career opponents have a .340 wOBA against him from that side. Colabello has cooled off from his hot start to the year, but remember, our system doesn't factor that in. We are working with huge sample sizes and projections out. Colabello could be part of a, wait for it, Twins stack. Oh man.

Alex Rios FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 7074
I've said it before, but Rios owns big splits against lefties, with an OPS last season of close to .900 and a wOBA in the high threes. That isn't the problem. More the issue here is that Dallas Keuchel has actually been good with an xFIP of 2.85 and striking out almost a batter an inning. I like it from a platoon point of view, but the matchup isn't ideal.

Jason Heyward FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 5969
I still believe. I still believe. I want to believe. I think I still believe. The home runs are going to come as his HR/FB rate regresses to his career average. And the Babip remains low. But the strikeouts are up and that's a worry. Still like him against Vogelsong. I believe in you Jay-Hey.

Lorenzo Cain FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 4386
Another in the class of weak-hitting outfielders that our system likes tonight. He and Span both make me a little queasy, I won't lie to you. But the other big money OFs all have tough matchups or disadvantageous platoon splits. It's a weird night for the position. Honestly, I don't know exactly wy our system likes him so much. He's a decent hitter coming at cheap prices against a wild lefty.

Consider Jacoby Ellsbury, B.J. Upton

 

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