Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftStreet, and DraftKings 5/11/14

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Pitchers

Pitching is a minefield today and they are priced accordingly. So few high-priced pitchers is a warning sign that few optimal plays exist. Here were go. Giddy up.

Clayton Kershaw FanDuel 10200 DraftKings 13000 DraftStreet 24754
On a day of many, many question marks it often makes the most sense to go with the guy who is far and away the best pitcher on the board. Kershaw is nails, plain and simple. Even with a matchup against a Giant team that doesn't strike out a ton this is probably your cash game play, at least on FanDuel. His numbers remain just stupid good, K-ing more that 10 guys per 9 and limiting the walks to less that one per nine. That should be illegal. The Giants are an average hitting team against lefties. But Kershaw isn't really a lefty. He's a pitching machine that happens to throw with his left hand.

Gio Gonzalez FanDuel 8800 DraftKings 10200 DraftStreet 19311
Like I said before, I don't feel great about anyone below Kershaw (and I don't even feel great about him). Gio is a guy I'm going strictly on K upside and little else. He is averaging more than strikeout an inning and he's pretty much the pitcher he was last season. The A's are about league average against lefties in terms of OPS and wOBA. Not safe by any means but he could get rolling down hill and turn in a solid performance.

Edwin Jackson FanDuel 6900 DraftKings 7700 DraftStreet 11515
Just so you know, I pick some Braves later on in this article. So take this with a but of a grain of salt. Jackson seems the type of pitcher who gives either a lights out performance or gets bombed mercilessly. This will be one of those two performances. The Braves rank near the bottom of the league against righties, striking out 23% of the time and ranking 28th in team OPS. That's a recipe for upside on a strange day for pitching. Again, not safe any means, but there are a lot of points to be had here if Jackson starts missing bats.

John Lackey FanDuel 7900 DraftKings 9500 DraftStreet 15626
Oof, how bad do you think I feel about this one? Real, real bad in case you were actually guessing. But Lackey has been pretty quality this season, with the Rangers in the bottom third of offenses against righty pitching. Not a ton of upside, but Texas isn't a great offense so I think you can spot start some guys against them. On a light day for pitching, Lackey can turn in a decent performance.

Consider: Robbie Erlin on two (or more) pitcher sites and only for some K upside against the Marlins and the park depressing power.

 

Catchers

Jason Castro FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 4111
Chris Tillman lets up home runs. Jason Castro hits home runs. See what I'm getting at here? Castro has a decent amount of power and Tillman has spent the last few starts regressing toward his mediocre mean. Castro is one of the top catcher for-the-money plays on the board today and a guy that offers salary relief at a shallow position, but who also carries a fair amount of upside if he takes advantage of Tillman's long ball tendencies.

Miguel Montero FanDuel 3700 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 7051
He's just fine, which is all you can ask for at catcher today. Montero's big draw is his limited downside. He walks more than he strikes out and won't kill you with any significant amount of negative points. Montero has been OPS-ing around 800 this season and that's even with a little run bad Babip. You can for sure slot him into lineups.

Brian McCann FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 5580
Still a buy-low candidate based on him upside. He has so many hits coming. Like I've said before, I don't buy on the "he's due" mantra, but I do recognize a Babip 75 points below a career average. McCann is going to get it going soon and you are going to want to be buying all the way up.

 

First Basemen

Freddie Freeman FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 7345
Edwin Jackson was good last game. This, for the most part, is an aberration. He is a dude who walks a ton of guys and gets wild all over the place. His starts tend to be elaborate feast or desolating famine. Freeman, a patient hitter, stands to really capitalize from Jackson's control issues. Freeman has a great walk rate, is keeping the K's in check and is at an optimal price because he just happens to have gone a long stretch without a home run.

Joey Votto FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 7236
Finally went yard last night and I hope you took our recommendation to play him. He's among the best hitters in the game, his Babip is running lower than his average and he continues to walk more than he strikes out. Juan Nicasio pretty much blows (expert analysis) and the price on Votto remains in the mid tier. Great time to scoop him.

Matt Adams FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 3400 DraftStreet 5184
Adams primary issue is the strikeout. He's enamored with swings and misses. This would be great if he were a pitcher, but he's not. That being said, Charlie Morton is Adams' inverse, not terribly concerned with the strikeout. This is a great time to target Adams, when the risk of getting punched out is greatly reduced.

Justin Smoak FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 6104
Jeremy Guthrie is not good. And he doesn't strike anyone else. You'll be seeing a number of Mariners on the list today because Guthrie just doesn't stand to limit offensive production in any meaningful way. Smoak stands to see some extra opportunities to put the ball in play today. And while his early season returns haven't been great, this is mostly about the pitcher. If you are stacking some M's, throw him in there.

 

Second Basemen

Robinson Cano FanDuel 3700 DraftKings 5100 DraftStreet 7578
Speaking of stacking M's, Cano is the top second base play. I absolutely love Cano today and will have him in nearly every cash game, and a fair amount of GPPs. Cano's primary issue this season has been his HR/FB rate falling a full 10% less than his career average. Because I don't watch a lot of (any) Mariner games, I can't see if these are just misses (though there's batted ball data out there that i don't have time to look up now), I would suspect that this is a run bad trend. These flyballs will turn into home runs. And it's time to buy Cano. His price is so low considering his talent level and Guthrie is a perfect pitcher to target. Get Cano in.

Brian Dozier FanDuel 3800 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 8455
First time he's shown up on our list this year. I've never been a huge believer in Dozier, but I'm prepared to admit a fair portion of that is observation bias. That being said, there is no denying that Dozier is significantly better against lefties over his career. And sure, Robbie Ray has been good in his brief major league tenure (5 innings), this a great spot to target Dozier. He has a 141 career wRC+ against lefties with an .875 OPS. That is good enough to get into lineups at these prices.

Ben Zobrist FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 6767
Know this, Josh Tomlin is not a good pitcher. Over his career Tomlin strikes out less that five batters per nine. He is the definition of below average. Zobrist hasn't been great this season by any stretch of the imagination. But he's priced right today against a subpar arm. This is a good spot to buy him, especially if he's hitting at the top of the order.

Consider: Anthony Rendon, Aaron Hill

 

Shortstops

Ian Desmond FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 4153
Well, here we are aren't we? Shortstop has many a trapping today and this illustrates the conundrum. Desmond is a strikeout hitter facing Kazmir, a strikeout pitcher. And yet the alternatives all seem worse. Desmond is significantly better against lefties and the splits are very much in his favor. That is the catalyst for him being first on this list (which remember is a $/ expectation list).

Asdrubal Cabrera FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 5712
Another guy who is merely mediocre, but faces off against a pitcher that is about league average. Cabrera and company could get to Archer as he still navigates his way through major league rosters. Cabrera has been decent recently and this is one of those cash game plays that understands that position is weak and he hits around the middle of the order.

Consider Hanley Ramirez, Everth Cabrera

 

Third Basemen

Kyle Seager FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 6036
To go with some of your Mariner-stacking needs. Third base is weak today, so temper your excitement. Seager is a fine hitter that can go yard here and there. He's a lowish Babip guy in general, which speaks a lot to his ploddy-ness* but he's even a little below his already low standards there. I'm a fan of Seager today because Guthrie is an average pitcher and he's priced correctly.
*industry term

Martin Prado FanDuel 2500 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 5157
This one is all about price. Prado is bargain basement prices, and even with the disadvantageous platoon split he still makes a nice play against Noesi. Prado's big issue this season has been the strikeout, which he's doing way more than his career average. It could be a blip. And if it is, then you want to be buying on the way up. He remains firmly in the punt range and although Noesi isn't a terrible pitcher, this is a decent place to play Prado at a weak position.

Luis Valbuena FanDuel 2300 DraftKings 2900 DraftStreet 4369
I love how much he's been walking this season and his price is in the punt range. Not an optimal play against Harang (who isn't great, but isn't terrible either) but can stand to get on base for your cash game purposes.

Consider: Carlos Santana

 

Outfielders

Gerardo Parra FanDuel 2600 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 6170
Always a guy I want to target against righties and though I think our system underrates Noesi a tad, this is a great spot to get Parra in. He had a .353 wOBA last season against righties, and while not huge upside play, represents a way to snag easy points with his skill set.

Jason Heyward FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 5355
I'm fully still in the Heyward corner (population decreasing rapidly) mostly because his position in the order, combined with the lower Babip so far this season means he's still quite capable of paying off these salaries. His K rate is up so far this season, but his HR/FB% is so far off his career averages that there stands to reason he has some home runs coming. He's nearly 9% off that mark which probably isn't sustainable. Continue to buy low here.

Adam Jones FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 7222
Bat is heating up. And while I usually don't use that as a marker for whether to play a guy or not, it does at least lend credence to the idea that he was just running bad to start the season. Jones's HR/FB could be starting to normalize now as he was(is) running ridic cold in that aspect of his game. It could literally be the very reason his price dropped so precipitously over the short term. I'm not buying on recent performance as much as his price is too low for his daily expectation.

Marcell Ozuna FanDuel 2600 DraftKings 3300 DraftStreet 6644
Lefty killer. Even with the shitty park to hit in Ozuna is a guy you grab at discounts when he gets the advantageous platoon split. Ozuna had an .840 OPS against lefties with a .360 wOBA last season. This is a significant disparity to what he does against righties (nothing) and when the price doesn't correct you play him in your favor.

Jayson Werth FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 7136
Even with Kazmir on the mound I'm willing to target Werth just because of the lefty dominance. It is a very real thing and Werth's projection takes into account that he's facing a lefty with K potential. Even with that consideration Werth still comes to the top of the OF rankings today.

Austin Jackson FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 7001
Torii Hunter FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 7777
Sammy Deduno (he doesn't mind if I don't call him Samuel) has a walk problem. In that he puts too many guys on base, not that he can't walk. Now this doesn't necessarily help either Jackson or Hunter who abhor free passes. But it does create more opportunities for them as their peers earn free passes. They also aren't platoon adverse in facing righties. I like both of them today.

Consider: Tampa Bay Rays Outfielders. Any of the ones of ware playing.

 

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