Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftStreet, and DraftKings 5/8/14

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Pitchers

David Price FanDuel 9200 DraftKings 11000 DraftStreet 20220
Price has been ridiculous this year even if his ERA doesn't totally reflect just how dominant he's been. His xFIP is only 2.56 (trailing ERA by nearly two whole runs), he's K-ing more than 10 per 9 and the big news is the walk rate. He has only five walks in almost fifty innings. That's pretty insane. What's bit him in the long ball, a number out of line with his career averages. I think that regresses some. And you know what? The Orioles have been sneaky bad against lefties this season. They are near the bottom of the league in both wOBA and OPS against southpaws. I think people will be off price tonight because of the ERA, but don't be fooled, he's been one of the best pitchers in all of baseball this season.

Ian Kennedy FanDuel 6900 DraftKings 9700 DraftStreet 18535
Though the Marlins are close to the top of the league in team OPS against righties this season, some of it is smoke and mirrors. They also have the highest team Babip and a HR/FB rate that probably isn't sustainable considering their home ballpark. This is all to say, that while not a bottom feeding squad like they were last year, they aren't nearly this good. and Ian Kennedy has some things going in his favor. He's striking out more than a batter an inning, continuing to limit the free passes and has an xFIP under 3. This is a real good spot for him and should be on all radars.

Drew Smyly FanDuel 6900 DraftKings 8800 DraftStreet 17759
Looks like he's going to stick as a starter and today's matchup should do nothing to dissuade it. The Astros blow. They aren't as bad against lefties as they are against righties, but they are still bad. Still bottom feeding in wOBA and team OPS against lefties. Smyly has been strong in his last two starts, going six and seven innings respectively with fine enough K rates. I don't love, love him today even with the opponent but the price is reduced in most places and with the matchup I think you can consider him.

Justin Masterson FanDuel 7000 DraftKings 9000 DraftStreet 17711
His last start looked like he might be turning things around and I don't think the Twins are as good as they've looked early this season. This is merely an upside play as Minny K's a bunch and Masterson's xFIP is a bit lower than his ERA.

 

Catchers

Really, really hating catcher today.
Jarrod Saltalamacchia FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 5604
He OPS 873 against righties last season, and has really come out of the gate hot to start the season with a ridiculous 950 OPS. That's pretty Babip-fueled as well as attributed to a spike in FB% that has translated to a few more home runs. So while he's not the HOF slugger he's been to start, he is hitting damn well and our system likes him against Kennedy today.

Jordan Pacheco FanDuel 2400 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 4447
Like the guys below, I'm willing to go super cheap at catcher today just to basically fill the spot. Pacheco isn't a good hitter, but he's slightly less bad against lefties. The Rockies do stand to put up some runs today and Pacheco (assuming he starts) should see an extra AB or two.

Texas Catchers
Robinson Chirinos FanDuel 2400 DraftKings 3300 DraftStreet 3406
J.P. Arencibia FanDuel 2500 DraftKings 3000 DraftStreet 4040
I'm basically going to punt away catcher in some spots today. That's how much I hate some of the options. These guys (whoever starts) will face a left and both are better hitters against that hand. I don't love it, but am going cheap against a weak pitcher in a good hitter's ballpark.

 

First Basemen

Miguel Cabrera FanDuel 4700 DraftKings 5600 DraftStreet 10188
The price is climbing, but when we are talking cash game first basemen, I'm not inclined to fade him too terribly much, especially with some cheaper options available at pitcher and some other places. He destroys lefties, reduces them to their lowest form. Last season Miggy OPS'd 1.200 against southpaws with an ungodly .504 wOBA. Just insane, insane numbers. If there's any way to sneak his rising salary in, I think you should do it.

Anthony Rizzo FanDuel 3700 DraftKings 4800 DraftStreet 8831
In his first thirteen major league innings pitched, Scott Carroll has three total strikeouts. And yeah that's a small sample size, but the minor league numbers don't exactly point to a guy who produces swings and misses. Great news for those buying on Rizzo today. I said a couple of days ago that Rizzo is putting it together this season, walking more than he's striking out. See what I'm getting at here. He's going to be getting on base and putting the ball into play in this matchup. I love, love the upside here for a GPP play.

Anthony Rizzo FanDuel 3700 DraftKings 4800 DraftStreet 8831
Strictly going upside here with Belt. He K's a ton but he's also been showing a nice power stroke early in the season. Josh Beckett has been putting up quality numbers, but his fatal flaw is the home run. I wouldn't target Belt in a cash game, but look at him in a GPP, especially on DraftStreet.

 

Second Basemen

Ian Kinsler FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4900 DraftStreet 7441
Will be on here any time he's facing a mediocre lefty. I'm already running out of new ways to explain this, and it isn't even mid May yet. Going to be a long season. But Kinsler is far and away the best for-the-buck second base option on the day. Dallas Keuchel isn't a terrible pitcher, and gets strikeouts well enough, but Kinsler's splits are just too pronounced to ignore. He spent last season amassing a 122 wRC+ against lefties with an .814 OPS. And don't forget he's got Miggy hitting two spots behind him. That dude makes lefties shit their pants (and not in the "we just got super wild at that party" kind of way. Right?)

Chase Utley FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4900 DraftStreet 6848
After coming out of the gate as if he were Ted Williams (the unfrozen kind), Chase has cooled off considerably, not having homered in about three weeks. Remember, this is how the baseball season ebbs and flows. RA Dickey on the other hand didn't come out hot and hasn't done anything much of anything to suggest he'll get back to what he was two years ago with the Mets. Chase's price has dropped to a point at which you can safely use him without having to skimp in other area. In other words, he's right in the value zone.

Jose Altuve FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 6484
Altuve is so, so much better against lefties over his career that I think you should target him here even with Smyly being a somewhat decent pitcher. Altuve's career wRC+ against lefties is 128, with an OPS of .825. He has a significant split and hammers southpaws to the point that you can get him lineups even with the rest of the order being a relative abomination.

 

Shortstops

Hanley Ramirez FanDuel 3900 DraftKings 5000 DraftStreet 7575
Think we are still buying low on Hanley here. He's had a rough-ish start to the season. While his ISO was completely crazy last season (as was his Babip) he's running a little bit off is career numbers this season. Enter Ryan Vogelsong, a pretty bad pitcher. For a weak position, if you aren't going to pay up for Tulo (below), I think Hanley makes a great mid-range option with power and speed. And I don't think his price will stay this low for long. Buy on the way up.

Elvis Andrus FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 5698
Mostly this pick relies on the Rangers fucking up the lefty Morales today. Andrus gets the advantageous split against a pitcher who trends a little wild at times. Additionally, Elvis has been running a bit bad, though his batted ball profile has a few more grounders than I'd like to see. Strictly if you are trying to save some dough by not going withe two bigger names at the position.

Troy Tulowitzki FanDuel 5900 DraftKings 6400 DraftStreet 11398
Not sure how high this price will ultimately go. These numbers are getting a bit goofy, but that's how good he's been so far. The price is the only reason he isn't at the top of the list. Because frankly, it doesn't seem like anyone, lefties especially, stand any real chance against him. I'm not even going to go through the numbers. If you follow baseball even a little you know he's been stupid good.

 

Third Basemen

Carlos Santana FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 6734
Man the Twins trot some real losers out there. Yesterday it was Nolasco, today Kevin Correia. What are the Twins thinking when they put together pitching staffs? Get the guys who strike players out the least? But Minnesota's folly is your treasure. Santana makes a strong play against a dude who is striking out less than four batters per nine. This is a pathetic ratio. Santana has shown flashes of his old self and is still walking a ton. Love this spot for him.

Adrian Beltre FanDuel 3900 DraftKings 4800 DraftStreet 7988
Another day, another lefty for Beltre. Adrian, though starting slowly (hit a home run as I was writing this), has crushed lefties throughout his career and I very much believe we are buying low here, though his price is creeping up on DraftStreet. Texas boosts power in every direction and he is a candidate to go yard in these kinds of situations. I'm still very much loving his cash game appeal because of his place in the order and the relative positional scarcity.

Nolan Arenado FanDuel 4000 DraftKings 4800 DraftStreet 8641
You're going to have to pay. But man he's been killing it this season and now he gets the lefty Matt Harrison. There's a decent case to punt pitching and stack Rockies right-handers in Arlington. You will have to pony up for the chance, but plugging Stubbs, Arenado and Tulo together could do some serious damage.

 

Outfielders

I am going pretty cheap in the outfield today.
Alex Rios FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4800 DraftStreet 7259
Has to be targeted against lefties, and on a day that I think I'll be avoiding many of the higher priced OF options, Rios has such an insane split that he makes a top play. Last season he rocked a 141 wRC+ against lefties and for his career he has an OPS over 800. Against Franklin Morales, in Arlington, this is pretty advantageous a spot.

Domonic Brown FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 3200 DraftStreet 4532
As you've seen, I like a number of Phillies today, and Brown is the last one. I think Dickey is ripe for the picking today and Philly will take advantage. Brown has really struggled to start the season, with an OPS under 600. That's horrible. But he simply isn't this bad of a hitter. And I rarelyput any credence in the "he's due" camp, I do believe we are going to see a power outbreak at some point soon.

Corey Hart FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 5647
Hart, like Rios above, is significantly better against lefties. For his career his OPS sits at .887, and while he isn't the hitter he was in his younger days, Hart is still hitting in the middle of the lineup. He's shown a little pop to start the year and I like the spot he's in facing Danny Duffy today.

Tigers Outfielders
Austin Jackson FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 5473
Torii Hunter FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 7671
And I would probably throw whoever the third OF is, Rajai Davis or JD Martinez into the mix as well. All are on the board against Keuchel because each of these guys has proven they can handle lefty pitching. I've gone a bit overboard on the Tigers, but so many of them really crush lefty pitching.

 

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