Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftStreet, and DraftKings 5/6/15

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Pitchers

Warning: Going cheap today at pitcher. I don't want to pay up for Clayton Kershaw in his first start back against the team with the highest OPS in the league against lefties. (Though it's very possible this is the lowest salary you see for him all year.) And a bunch of other guys are combinations of question marks or they have bad match ups (or both).

Jesse Chavez FanDuel 7700 DraftKings 10900 DraftStreet 19058
Outside of one poor game against Houston (where I of course played him across the board) Chavez has been great. I'm not letting DFS bias get me here. His numbers are simply too good to ignore. He's striking out more than a a batter an inning with limited walks. And though his ERA is a little Babip fueled, his xFIP is only 2.70. Chavez faces the Mariners, one of the worst teams in the league against righty pitching. They strike out almost a quarter of the time and have a team OPS of .657. This is a great chance to pick up an upside pitcher at a lower cost simply because he isn't a household name yet.  <strong>Note: Our system actually doesn't love him because projection systems haven't caught up to his new found skill.</strong>

Tim Hudson FanDuel 7300 DraftKings 11000 DraftStreet 17929
Feels weird. I'm not a huge fan of picking guys that don't have strikeouts as part of their repertoire. This is for a couple of reasons. One: the margins seem incredibly thin when it comes to picking a pitcher that can't elevate his fantasy points through K's. Two: And it has to do with the first, but when a pitcher gets his outs other ways, it brings too much luck into the fold. I want my outcomes true. Hudson has been quality this year, but it's on the back of a minuscule Babip. I'm more looking at the opponent in the Pirates who are in the bottom third of the league against righties. I'm not over the moon about this pick, but pitching options are limited today.

Drew Hutchison FanDuel 5800 DraftKings 7400 DraftStreet 14139
I've played him a few times at real discounts on DraftStreet, where snagging a third, upside pitcher at cheap prices is a fine strategy to employ. The price is climbing now because the returns have been so strong. He's striking a ton of guys out, keeping the walks relatively in check and his xFIP is right in line with his low 3.00 ERA. Plus the Phillies are a weak hitting bunch, near the bottom on the league in team OPS and wOBA. I wish they weren't playing in Philly, but I'm willing to roll him out there anyway.

Robbie Erlin FanDuel 6300 DraftKings 6400 DraftStreet 10799
This is a deep pick mostly on price. Erlin's xFIP is about two runs better than his ERA, he can strike guys out and faces a middle of the road Royals team.

 

Catchers

Robinson Chirinos FanDuel 2300 DraftKings 3300 DraftStreet 4011
J.P. Arencibia FanDuel 2500 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 2928
For their salaries and where they are playing, on a night where finding solid value in catcher is tough, I think you can work in whoever is starting for the Rangers. It was Chirinos last night. It could be J.P. tonight. The park gives everyone such a power boost and these guys are coming in at basically punt prices. I don't love many of the other options out there tonight so picking two dudes who aren't particularly adept hitters is a little easier to swallow.

Evan Gattis FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 7145
For a few bucks more, Gattis makes a nice play at catcher today. His splits really favor him facing lefties. Tyler Lyons isn't a noob at all, which lowers Gattis's expectation a little, but for his career the Grape has a 122 wRC+ and .825 OPS against lefties. Those numbers are hot and make him an attractive play today. The price is a little higher than I would like, and I'm still inclined to go with the guys in Coors from a points per dollar perspective. But I also love having those splits in my favor.

Consider: Wellington Castillo and Derek Norris

 

First Basemen

Anthony Rizzo FanDuel 3900 DraftKings 4900 DraftStreet 8808
Rizzo has been great to start this year, OPS-ing over 900 with six early home runs. He might be starting to put it all together and a great sign is that he's walking more than he's striking out. This shift has his OBP over .420 and could signal him becoming an elite slugging first basemen. He's got a nice matchup today against Noesi, a below average pitcher, in a ballpark that's about power neutral for lefties.

Prince Fielder FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4800 DraftStreet 7233
Obligated to continue recommending him as long as he's playing in Coors. I like the matchup a little more today against Nicasio than yesterday against Lyles. That being said, with every game that goes by with Fielder's ground ball rate so high, there is reason to be concerned. But while playing in the thin air and hitter-friendly atmosphere, you've got to have at least a little exposure to Prince's upside.

David Ortiz FanDuel 3700 DraftKings 4800 DraftStreet 7615
Papi is actually running kind of bad this year. His Babip is 60 points of his career average while the rest of his batted ball numbers are in lock step with the rest of his career. He remains one of the elite bats in the game and though the matchup against Bailey isn't ideal, Homer does have an elevated home run rate. This could prove advantageous for Ortiz who's been known to go yard once or twice in his career. I don't think Ortiz will be on a lot of radars today, but he's one of the safer plays around.

Yonder Alonso FanDuel 2200 DraftKings 3100 DraftStreet 2953
Alonso has been a fucking mess this season, with an abysmal 410 OPS. It really doesn't get much worse than that. Some of it is riding on the back of a crazy .185 Babip, a number you won't often see this low. Most of his numbers look in line with the rest of his career. And while he is by no means a great hitter, I think you can take a stab at him today against Guthrie, who is awful. This is as much about price and opponent as anything else.

Consider Matt Adams and Allen Craig

 

Second Basemen

Ian Kinsler FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4800 DraftStreet 8266
Part of the discussion any time he's facing a lefty. Kinsler, for his career, has an extreme split against lefties with a 122 wRC+ against that hand. His OPS is 80 points higher than against righties and Oberholtzer is no great shakes. In cash games this is the way I'm going to want to roll if I can fit the salary which is more than possible considering some of the cheaper pitching options today.

Brandon Phillips FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 4276
Been a lot o'bit of stinky this season, struggling in just about every area of the stat sheet. But the price has reached into the punt range and he's facing a lefty in Doubront. Phillips is significantly better against lefties for his career with an .816 OPS and 112 wRC+ against the hand. For the price, and because Doubront is anything but reliable, I think you can take a shot on Phillips today for bargain basement salaries. He still hits in the middle of the Reds order.

Jose Altuve FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 8291
Without knowing much about Robbie Ray, I can say that at least we know Altuve hits lefties much better than righties. I think he's kind of a safe play against a relatively unknown pitcher.

Ben Zobrist FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 6087
I'm really not a big believer in Chris Tillman whose home run rate makes me take notice whenever he's on the mound. While Tampa Bay isn't necessarily a hitter's park, I think Zobrist makes a fine play here as he hits better against righties.

Consider: Chase Utley

 

Shortstops

Note: Troy Tulowitzki FanDuel 5300 DraftKings 6100 DraftStreet 10956
Tulo is always the top SS play from a raw expected points standpoint. You have to pay a pretty penny but he's facing another lefty in Robbie Ross and Tulo has pretty much been the MVP so far this season. He's is destroying other pitcher's wills to live (I'm assuming). Two more home runs last night and carrying an OPS of more than 1.200 into this game. He's bonkers. With some cheaper pitching out there today I think you can probably fit him.

Andrelton Simmons FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 3200 DraftStreet 6119
Andrelton has splits that favor facing lefties and with shortstop looking like a horror movie today, getting a guy on a favorable platoon is about all you can ask for. He has a career 109 wRC+ against lefties and is a contact hitter through and through. Simmons almost never strikes out, rocking a 4.7% K% so far this season. That's a crazy low number. He doesn't walk either. He just swings and puts the ball in play. Not much upside here but safety is the key at SS if you aren't going Tulo.

Everth Cabrera FanDuel 2600 DraftKings 3300 DraftStreet 3657
I keep putting him out there. He continues to go 0-4. But today is where bad meets worse when the Padres face Jeremy Guthrie. In what could turn out to be the worst collection of hitters, facing the worst the majors has to offer in pitching, I don't really know what I'll do. It won't watching, that's for sure. But Guthrie's mediocrity demands you consider Everth here at such a weak position.

Asdrubal Cabrera FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 5315
With each one of these picks I'm talking myself more and more into paying for Tulo. I wish I didn't have to play any of the shortstops today. Like we could just skip the position all together and move on with our lives. Cabrera makes an okay play against Deduno today. I say ok because he's fine for a shortstop and shitty for any other position on the diamond.

Consider: Hanley Ramirez especially on DraftStreet

 

Third Basemen

Adrian Beltre FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4800 DraftStreet 6767
Will probably have him on here every game he is playing in Coors. Isn't much else to say on the front. The power boost is simply too much to ignore and facing Juan Nicasio doesn't do anything to dissuade me. I'm sure he'll be another high percentage cash game play. As well he should be. Nicasio isn't horrible, but the ballpark is too much to ignore even with Beltre's slow start.

Pablo Sandoval FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 4736
He's been an abomination to start the season. A true disaster. His OPS is less than .550 and he's striking out a ton. But the Babip is more than 100 points lower than his career average and he's facing who's had struggles of his own. Sandoval's batted ball profile is in line with the rest of his career (though IFFB's are up) so I'm not too worried about a lingering issue. Just looks like he's pressing and coming up short. I think it turns around and you could be buying lower on Panda.

Matt Carpenter FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 5402
Carpenter is good at one thing at least: getting on base. Trouble is that's all he's done this year. His OBP is 70 points higher than his slugging. For the unaware, this is real, real tough to do. It basically means he's walking and hitting singles. And nothing else. This simply won't remain the case. And while I'm not subscribing to a gambler's fallacy in terms of his projected XBH's I do see that his batted ball profile is about the same. The K's are up, by that has little bearing on what happens when the ball is in play. I am buying on the lower end with Carpenter for sure.

Consider: Nolan Arenado

 

Outfielders

Carlos Gonzalez FanDuel 4200 DraftKings 5800 DraftStreet 8136
While he hasn't been a complete superstar to start the season, the power is still very much there and he's facing a pitcher in Robbie Ross, who while inducing a lot of groundballs, is also susceptible to the long ball. The price is more than fair across the industry. This is a great spot to be buying Cargo as his Babip is about 80 points below his career average. And while the GB% is up, he doesn't have enough PAs in to have it stabilized yet. There are more extra base hits coming. Even with the splits outside of his favor, I still like the price on him today.

Christian Yelich FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 6705
A DFSR poster boy. We've been on him all season. Picked him Sunday and he went yard. We are always trying to get him in there against weaker/ super fat lefties. Enter Bartolo Colon. He's big, fat, and significantly worse against lefties. Yelich, coming a bit cheaper across the board, makes a nice play hitting at the top of the Marlin lineup. He's scored a ton of runs this year with some timely Fish hitting behind him.

Matt Holliday FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 5000 DraftStreet 6534
Gavin Floyd should be getting the start for the Braves today and if so take notice because he is a home run machine. As in he's the machine that produces a lot of home runs from opposing batters. He has a career 12% HR/FB percentage. That's pretty damn high for a guy who's been around the majors as long as Floyd. And it makes the Cards in play as a potential stack today.

Alejandro De Aza FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 3400 DraftStreet 5576
Edwin Jackson is having a rough year mostly because he's walking the ballpark. And while de Aza isn't the most patient guy in the majors he should be hitting at the top of the order against a wild righty. de Aza has been running horrible with Babip to start the season, trailing his career average by about 120 points. That's a significant number attributed mostly to a spike in IFFB's. Our system really likes him today at reduced prices and I think you can take a shot against him especially if the Sox can get to Jackson.

Ranger Outfield
Shin-Soo Choo FanDuel 4500 DraftKings 5200 DraftStreet 8491
Alex Rios FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4900 DraftStreet 6433
Leonys Martin FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 6155
You know the story by now. They are in Coors, in the second game of the series so their bodies have presumably adjusted to the altitude. I suspect this is a real thing and read recently somewhere that teams struggle in their first game in Colorado. As a guy who lived in the Rocky Mountains for a period of time I can attest to getting gassed early with the thin air. So there, you heard it from an expert. But seriously, each of these guys should be in play tonight depending on how you want to spend.

Consider: Domonic Brown, Matt Joyce and Seth Smith

 

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