Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftStreet, and DraftKings 5/4/14

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Pitchers

Jose Fernandez FanDuel 10500 DraftKings 12800 DraftStreet 25772
At this point it's hard to pick against him regardless of opponent. He is simply that good. And, at least so far, there isn't much to suggest it is an aberration. Even the ridiculous nature of the numbers. He has an obscene 7:1 K/BB ratio and an xFIP of 1.99. Even against a Dodger team near the top of the league against righties, it's hard to make a case against Fernandez if you are looking for just raw pitching points. The price is probably starting to reach critical mass, and it will dip the second he has a so-so start, but for now picking against him seems a bit folly.

Lance Lynn FanDuel 8000 DraftKings 9900 DraftStreet 19250
He struggled some in his last start against the Braves, but I'm still looking at Lynn as a safer play today. His peripherals are strong with a 10.3 K/9 rate and an xFIP of 3.24 not too off from his 3.60 ERA. The Cubs are near the bottom of the league against righties with one of the higher K% in the league as well as a team OPS of .639 which is pretty garbage. Lynn isn't a sexy pick as compared to some of the other names running out there today, but his numbers along with the matchup deserve consideration.

Madison Bumgarner FanDuel 8700 DraftKings 9500 DraftStreet 17391
Bumgarner is strictly an upside play today. The Braves can mash, but they also strike out in bunches. I wouldn't put Madison in cash games for this reason. There exists a strong possibility he gets roughed up. But there is also an opportunity to really inflate his strikeout numbers. And with a little luck, he could make a fantastic start. But beware of the pile on.

Wade Miley FanDuel 5600 DraftKings 7100 DraftStreet 13828
Do you like your starters facing bottom-feeding offenses? Then do I have some great news for you. The Padres play in the major leagues and Wade Miley gets to face them today. The Dads strike out nearly 23% of the time against lefties, have a team wRC+ of 82 and just generally stink. Just glance at their lineups some time. It's bad. Miley is pretty *meh* but the price is so low I think you can take a stab at him.

 

Catchers

Jason Castro FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 6501
Castro has shown flashes of power to start the season and is a solid play today against Brandon Maurer. Maurer is about a league average pitcher (or little worse) and has had some home run issues in his brief major league time. For the dollars, Castro is my top catching pick today and with the home park boosting power for lefties, has some nice upside today. The Astro offense is bad, but they've been running bad as a team. There could be some runs on the board today.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 4927
Saltalamacchia has a ridiculous 1.000 OPS this season. He's been a top hitting catcher since moving  from a great hitter's park to a terrible one in Miami. Some of it is luck, but he's shown power in the past and might just be putting it all together. We've had him on our picks a bunch this season as our system has liked his power potential. That is coming to fruition and he has another great matchup against Fife today.

Buster Posey FanDuel 4000 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 6829
Tough matchup with Wood, but I'm inclined to put Posey on here just about every time he's facing a lefty.

 

First Basemen

Mark Teixeira FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 7889
Going to keep recommending him until he gives me reason not to. Had him as a top play yesterday. Dong. Gets to face Bedard today. And while I won't do the home run guarantee, this could be a Yankee pile-on game. The only thing stopping it would be the hitters at the top of their lineup (Ellsbury and Beltran primarily) are worse against lefties. But not Tex. He's platoon neutral and stands to put some numbers up on the board.

Juan Francisco FanDuel 2200 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 6158
All he does is destroy right handed pitching. Especially shitty right-handed pitching like Edinson Volquez. He's a platoon guy through and through. But the power is very real and for minimum prices is a guy you can put in and not really feel bad about it at all. He's rocking absurd numbers to start this season (over a 200 wRC+ to name one) and when he's facing mediocre pitching while hitting in the middle of the Jay lineup, makes a great play.

Joey Votto FanDuel 4000 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 7227
Aren't going to see many 0-5 performances like you did from Votto last night. He's typically as safe as they come. But everyone has off nights. Kyle Lohse is just a regular guy and Votto is still the guy carrying the 900+ OPS into the game. Get back on the horse here.

Consider: Miguel Cabrera, Lucas Duda

 

Second Basemen

Jedd Gyorko FanDuel 2600 DraftKings 3000 DraftStreet 4673
It's a shame the Padres suck so bad. Well, actually I don't really care about the Padres, I guess I just wouldn't mind writing about them a little more. Alas, they are awful and we are stuck talking here and there about guys like Gyorko. His splits really favor facing lefties and with Miley on the mound, Gyorko's punt-ish prices are looking nice at a weak position.

Anthony Rendon FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 7658
This one is all about the splits. Our system has Rendon middle of the pack, but I'm giving him a bump based on Hamels not being quite Hamels. Rendon is a lefty killer and had a .357 wOBA against them last season. He's had a great start to the season, OPS-ing close to 900 and is playing in a hitter's ballpark. This has upside written all over it. (Update: Hamels was scratched. Roberto Hernandez gets the start)

Scooter Gennett FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3300 DraftStreet 5899
Gennett is pretty awesome against righties over his career. He owns a 144 wRC+ facing that hand with an OPS close to 900. Yeah I know, I couldn't believe it either. Alfredo Simon is garbage and on a sparse day at the position I'll be targeting him in a few spots.

 

Shortstops

Jose Reyes FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 6844
Crushed my soul into a million little pieces the other night when I played him nearly across the board, and he was the only Blue Jay not to reach base at least twice. Reyes reached first 0 times. He has been awful to start the season, partially on the back of a Babip that is more than 100 points off his career average. He's putting the ball in the air more, which for his skillset is a trend in the wrong direction. But I'm still holding out hope. I think Jays are going to bomb Volquez today and at a weak position, I'll take Jose to grab an extra at bat. (And hopefully not make an extra out)

Asdrubal Cabrera FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 6161
Andre Rienzo really isn't a major league pitcher, carrying an xFIP of more than 5 into today's game. Cabrera hits better against righties and his price is depressed some because he's run a little bad to start the year. Cabrera is by no means a strong hitter, but at SS you can consider him especially if you believe the Tribe will get to Rienzo early in often. The latter point is a plausible scenario and Cabrera stands to benefit beyond just our projection system feeling like his points/$ are in the acceptable range.

Everth Cabrera FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3300 DraftStreet 4992
Is better against lefties, has some speed, comes pretty cheap. Everth has been striking out a little too much to start the year, and his OPS is down but he's got some speed if you are looking to essentially punt SS today, then he offers some salary relief.
Blanket Tulo recommendation that pretty much exists in perputuity because of his skill and the rest of the field being so weak. The ongoing issue with Tulo is his price. He costs an arm and a leg which makes getting him into lineups tough.

 

Third Basemen

Carlos Santana FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 6357
Has been slowly pulling himself out of the early season tailspin that had me questioning whether something was really wrong him with him. It appear it was just a slump and he's primed to capitalize on Andre Rienzo's mediocrity. Santana has an 815 OPS against righties last season with a .359 wOBA. When he's clicking he's one of the best hitting third basemen in the game. And it looks like he's back.

Evan Longoria FanDuel 3800 DraftKings 5100 DraftStreet 5894
Even with the tough matchup against Sabathia (I think he might own CC, I'm not much of a BvP guy) I like Longoria because the splits are so heavily in his favor. He had a wOBA of close to 400 against southpaws last season and the Rays in general could give Sabathia fits. They have three hitters at the top of the lineup (Jennings, Longo and Myers) who own lefties. With the stadium considerations this could be a team to target.

Adrian Beltre FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 7073
Just manhandles lefties in every possible way you can imagine. (No not that way you fucking sicko, in every baseball way, Geez.) Beltre has yet to hit a home run this year though remember he's only played in 15 games. When he gets it going, watch out. This could be the game considering the splits and Skaggs on the mound. Feels a little like we are buying low.

Matt Carpenter FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 5744
Has been awful. Just awful. And it's kind of hard to figure out why. His Babip is fine. His batted ball profile looks in line with the rest of his career. Strike outs are up significantly, though that wouldn't tell the whole story of where the extra base hits have gone. It's perplexing. Which is why I'm still buying. Jason Hammel isn't as good as his 2.08 ERA would suggest and let's keep buying low on Matty.

 

Outfielders

Carlos Gonzalez FanDuel 4400 DraftKings 5800 DraftStreet 8283
Charlie Blackmon FanDuel 4000 DraftKings 5000 DraftStreet 8913
the considerations for both of them are the same. They are facing Dillon Gee, a flyball pitcher, in the best home run hitting park in the majors. Oh, and did I mention that Gee is significantly worse against lefties, allowing more dongs from that side of the plate? Do you need any other reason to try and get these guys into your lineups? It won't be easy wit the salaries, but you need exposure to at least one of them.

Adam Jones FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 6095
I know Phil Hughes looks like he might have figured something out but he's still a flyball pitcher and Jones is, for the most part, platoon neutral. Jones has struggled with the strike outs to start the season, but he's still an elite player and our system isn't overrating some early slumping. Now is the time to buy on playes like Jones, who others will dismiss with the lack of early returns.

Christian Yelich FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 4300
Has quietly been having a really strong season. Our system has liked him from the get go and he's been delivering. Yelich's early returns are a little Babip fueled (really from the whole Marlin team) but he gets a nice matchup with the Fife spot start. The Fish are scoring in bunches and today shouldn't slow them down too much.

Alex Rios FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 7373
Rios is a slightly better hitter against lefties and facing Skaggs today in Arlington puts him in a nice spot. For his career, Rios has a 109 wRC+ against lefties and a wOBA of .344. Skagg is struggling to strike guys out in the majors this season with a K/9 of only 5.44. Rios makes a decent cash game play in the OF today with the speed and power combo deal that somewhat limits his downside.

Alfonso Soriano FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 5866
Always a threat against lefties. Especially crappy lefties like Erik Bedard. Bedard sucks, walking as many guys as he's striking out and pitching in a ballpark that boosts power numbers from both sides of the plate. Soriano has been batting in the middle of the order against lefties and should be there again today. I wish more Yankees had favorable platoon splits against lefties because I love to pick on Bedard.

Jayson Werth FanDuel 3800 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 7861
Hamels doesn't seem fully recovered and Werth obliterates lefties. Until I see Cole back to his past form, I think it's safe to start Nats against him today in Philly. The ballpark helps the power numbers and if Hamels is just an average pitcher now, the Nats could really put a hurting on him. Werth's wOBA against lefties last season was an obscene .461. That should be illegal. (Update: Hamels was scratched. Roberto Hernandez gets the start)

Curtis Granderson FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 5915
A final chance to grab some Mets in Coors before you never really think about any of them again.

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