Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftStreet, and DraftKings for 5/1/14

Happy May Day! Much to your disappointment, it's Mister March here instead of your old pal Doug. The good news? I am considerably younger and handsomer than Doug. You've been warned.

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Pitchers

Dan Haren FanDuel 8100 DraftKings 0 DraftStreet 16767
Here at DFSR, we've been all over Haren this year. The projections have liked him for a bounce back since day 1, and he's produced on those projections, and more. The strikeouts are good, the walks are great, and the real kicker? He's reversed his fb/gb trends this year. With a 54% ground ball rate, Haren is positively in beast mode - and the Twins had a sub 700 OPS against right handers last year. All in all, a great match up for early game players.

Hiroki Kuroda FanDuel 7100 DraftKings 7100 DraftStreet 13599
It isn't easy to pick a runner up to Haren, today. Kuroda has Seattle, which is a very nice match-up, but the park certainly isn't in his favor. Seattle hasn't been nearly as bad as they've been in the past in terms of run scoring, and they've got some solid lefties to throw at Kuroda. The good news? Kuroda's ERA is artificially inflated this year, as his left-on-base % is nearly 15% lower than his historic averages. I think the Yankees are well suited for a win here with the young Elias opposing Kuroda, and I think Kuroda pays this price if the Yankees get the W.

Ervin Santana FanDuel 9000 DraftKings 11000 DraftStreet 20453
The price is significant for big Erv, but that's because it's a significantly terrific matchup for Santana. Miami has been much better in terms of run scoring this year, but they are significantly better equipped to hit left handers, and I believe in the Braves' chances of walking away with the W against Alvarez and the Fish.

 

Catchers

Salvador Perez FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 6257
Perez simply dominates left handers, and at this stage in his career, Buehrle has no answer for guys who mash southpaws. With an incredible 150 wRC+ against lefties, Perez should be a huge start in every format.

Matt Wieters FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 0 DraftStreet 7457
While Wieters favors lefties, the system likes him to produce against knuckleballer Charlie Morton. This is largely a park consideration, and the fact that it's a relatively poor day for catchers.

A.J. Pierzynski FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 6835
Keep an eye on whether Ramos or Archer pitches today - but my gut tells me Archer (and Rotoworld agrees). Another platoon split all-star, Pierzynski is unplayable against lefties, and solid vs. righties. I far prefer the guys above him, but if you decide on a Boston stack today, Pierzynski isn't a bad play.

 

First Basemen

Mark Teixeira FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 5565
Mark has been sending Text Messages(!) to the bleachers with 2000 form recently, and gets a fantastic match-up of Elias at home. The system is unimpressed with Elias' smoke and mirrors low ERA (21K:14BB ratio - ouch), and figures Tex for a great outing.

Billy Butler FanDuel 2300 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 5016
Butler seems to be seeing the ball better recently, and he gets an ideal matchup in Buehrle. The price is ridiculously low (especially on FanDuel, where he's basically the minimum), and if Butler is over his early season woes, he'll be very reasonably priced for the next few games.

David Ortiz FanDuel 3800 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 7892
Papi still has the power stroke, and it's going to come out most at home vs. right handed pitching. If he draws Archer today, figure on a chance for a very solid game.

Also considered - Mark Reynolds, Joe Mauer, Joey Votto

 

Second Basemen

Neil Walker FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 0 DraftStreet 5951
Don't let the cold-stretch fool you - early season DFSR favorite Neil Walker is one of the more dramatic platoon split guys at his position, and in spite of a better walk rate this year, Bud Norris has been a lot more famine than feast.

Robinson Cano FanDuel 3900 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 7676
My love for Cano in his return to Yankee stadium knows few bounds. Facing the right handed Kuroda, Cano should be able to take advantage of a home park that treated him very lovingly over the years. He's priced below superstar level due to his new home situation, but that won't matter back in the Bronx. Cano's been plenty steady, and I think this could be his biggest game of the year.

Brandon Phillips FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 3300 DraftStreet 4375
Phillips represents a significant step down, value wise, from Walker - but there's real upside here on a day where 2b is relatively weak. Estrada has had a nice start to the season, but on sites where Phillips is priced cheaply, he shouldn't be ignored.

Also considered: Daniel Murphy, Dee Gordon.

 

Shortstops

Jose Reyes FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 7632
JOSE is essentially platoon neutral, so this ranking comes down to the opposing pitcher and the price. When he's right, Jose is still capable of superstar performances, and this game is as good as any to get him going. While the lack of SB is a concern so far, that could easily be as much a function of opportunity as anything else. 4 of his 9 hits have been for extra bases, and along with missing the beginning of the season, have limited his opportunity a great deal.

Derek Jeter FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 2900 DraftStreet 3416
If I've said it once I've said it a thousand times - all of DJ's fantasy value has come against lefties this season. A lot of that has come at home. Facing a lefty with control problems at home makes Jeter a gorgeous play, especially if you're feeling a Yankee stack.

Brad Miller FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 2800 DraftStreet 3983
Miller hasn't done a heck of a lot this season, but I love this match up for a couple of reasons. First - his biggest weakness, striking out, is mitigated by Kuroda's relative lack of K's. Second, it's a great park to hit in, and he plays in a lineup that loves hitting righty pitching. If he tanks again here I may start to re-evaluate, but for now, I'm sticking with Miller.

Also considered, Hanley Ramirez.

 

Third Basemen

Pedro Alvarez FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 0 DraftStreet 5573
Alvarez has had a really strange year. He's still producing monstrous power, and he's striking out much less while walking much more. His value has been driven downward by a ridiculous .161 BABIP. This will absolutely correct itself over the course of the season, and Bud Norris makes a great match up tonight. I'm going to go out on a limb and say I love Alvarez in any format, including double-ups.

David Wright FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 6310
While a lot of the Colorado guys have been priced out of consideration due to the Coors effect, that's not the case for their opponents. The patient Wright should have a fantastic game against Nicasio, even if it's not his preferred platoon situation.

There's not any one guy that sticks out after these guys, but Aramis Ramirez and Evan Longoria are both pretty similar beneath them.

 

Outfielders

Christian Yelich FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 3200 DraftStreet 5282
Homey keeps doing the deed against righties, and while he's doing that, he's getting the nod here. I had the pleasure of being on the phone with DFSR's main contributor, Doug Norrie, when Yelich hit his homer last night. It was something akin to watching a father walking his daughter down the aisle, or watching his son take a first step. Root for Yelich, if only for Doug's sake.

Carlos Gonzalez FanDuel 4100 DraftKings 5200 DraftStreet 6662
Cargo may not exactly have been himself so far this year, but I'm beating everyone into the pot to get my money in on him vs. Bartolo Colon at home. Righty/lefty, home park, etc - Gonzalez is going to make some seriously hard contact in this one.

Nick Markakis FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 0 DraftStreet 7129
Markakis doesn't appear to be a huge platoon guy on the surface, but the 118 wRC+ vs. righties and the 100 wRC+ vs. lefties tells a different story. Morton is a little tricky, but the experienced Markakis should be able to produce against him at home.

Colby Rasmus FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 2700 DraftStreet 5088
You couldn't accuse Colby Rasmus of being consistent, but I always feel a lot less awkward watching him when he's facing guys like Guthrie. Lest you forget, Rasmus was a monstrous prospect - it's just those pesky pitchers who can actually pitch, and especially the left handed ones, that stand in his way to stardom. Luckily, Guthrie is none of those.

Matt Kemp FanDuel 3800 DraftKings 0 DraftStreet 6759
A guy with talent like this against a talentless heap like Pelfrey - the 15 walks against the 8 Ks are a joke, and many Dodgers are in play in this game - even if they aren't listed at the top of their position.

Andre Ethier FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 0 DraftStreet 5040
Ethier is only in the majors to hit right handed pitching at this point, and oh what a right hander he has! He may or may not play because he generally sucks - but the matchup against Pelfrey is out of this world. The value here is great if he gets in there.

Alfonso Soriano FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 4682
You can cut/paste Teixeira's entry here - Soriano is decidedly better against left handed pitching, and is very much effected by the park he's hitting in. The recent slump should be an aberration - Soriano should be a part of any Yankee stack today.

Dustin Ackley FanDuel 2500 DraftKings 2700 DraftStreet 4327
Ackley has unquestionably been a disappointment in his young career, but in a game where many of his comrades will enjoy a nice platoon advantage, I like him as part of a Seattle stack against the pitch to contact approach of Kuroda.

Also considered - Shane Victorino, Wil Myers, Melky Cabrera.

 

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