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Madison Bumgarner FanDuel 9000 DraftKings 9800 DraftStreet 19367
Bumgarner is, I believe, the top pitching option on the day. He's been super solid to start the season with a K/9 over 10. The walks are right in line with his career averages of less than 3 per 9 and he owns a 3.22 xFIP. Very solid. This combined with the opponent in the Padres means he'll be a big percentage start today. The Padres are near the bottom of the league in hitting lefties. Some of it is with a low Babip (.243) but that doesn't explain everything. They have a 71 wRC+ and are striking out nearly 23% of the time. Those numbers are gross even if you factor in for luck. Bumgarner is the best bang for the big buck today.
Jeff Samardzija FanDuel 7700 DraftKings 0 DraftStreet 17685
Let me start by saying that I don't totally buy Samardzija's early ERA as it has a lot of luck behind it. And his K's are trending lower than his career averages. Not exactly the best way to open about a pick; I never was the best salesman. But Samardzija I think offers a contrarian opportunity on a day that doesn't involve many strikeout pitchers. The Reds are middle of the road against righties and are prone to K. They have a leadoff hitter in Hamilton who can get overpowered and the talent in their lineup falls off a cliff after the first few batters. Not a safe play by any means, but I don't think a lot of people will be on him and he could post a solid line.
Tyson Ross FanDuel 5900 DraftKings 8300 DraftStreet 15685
Over the last couple of seasons, Ross has been able to maintain a K/9 around 8. Solid. His xFIP hovers in the mid 3's. Solid. And today he gets the Giants who have been striking out the fourth most in the league against righties. This all lines up for a solid value play in the mid-lower tier of pitchers.
Wilin Rosario FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 6793
Wade Miley v Rosario is the story here. Need to be on Wilin whenever a lefty is the picture because he has an extreme split favoring the destruction of lefty pitchers. Miley isn't the worst of them, but he's not a Cy Young award winner either. Rosario will be a big percentage play today I think and for cash games he should probably find his way into your lineup because I think he's pretty safe at these prices with the matchup. Update: It looks like Rosario will sit tonight
Yan Gomes FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 2800 DraftStreet 4742
He doesn't have a ton of career at bats under his belt, but for the ones he does have, Gomes owns a 121 RC+ against lefties with a .345 wOBA. These numbers actually make the Gomes vs Rosario debate something to at least entertain because of how much you save playing Yan. Skaggs has struggled to consistently strike people out this season, which bodes well for some Indian righties.
Paul Goldschmidt FanDuel 4100 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 8587
First time making our picks this year. It isn't because of his talent. He's awesome. Just the price was always just out of range for our system's value marker. Not today. He's the top first base option by a fair amount. His price has dropped a little and he faces the lefty Morales today. Goldie slaughters lefties with an OPS of 990 last season and a wOBA of .414, both ridiculous numbers. Because Pujols and Abreu have been so hot lately, Goldschmidt's price has dipped and now is the best time to buy.
Allen Craig FanDuel 2200 DraftKings 3300 DraftStreet 4658
Won't be pivoting too much away from Goldschmidt at FanDuel, but Craig is another option (and he is an OF everywhere else). Early season hasn't been kind to Craig who has a Babip that must be driving him crazy. He's also grounding out a ton, and that might be an indicator the power is diminishing. Craig though doesn't have extreme platoon splits and had an OPS of .845 against righties last season. I'm still buying low and on DraftStreet he makes a great cheap play.
Anthony Rizzo FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 0 DraftStreet 6804
I'm buying no part of what Alfredo Simon is selling. He sucks and some Cubs lefties are in a great spot today. Rizzo has power and Simon is trash. He doesn't strike anyone out and has basically been insanely lucky to start the season.
Consider: Joey Votto on DraftStreet
Aaron Hill FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 7564
A lot of the D-Backs righties get big bumps against the lefty today and Hill is one of them. His early season struggles have mostly involved him k-ing a ton. And Franklin Morales, while a bit wild, can strike guys out. But I'm looking for Arizona to get to him early. Hill, like Prado below, has seen a price drop because of early season struggles. Don't let this sway you off of proven talent. Especially when his numbers projected out are positive.
Ryan Raburn FanDuel 2200 DraftKings 2800 DraftStreet 3712
Has been dogshit to start the season, but is the cheapest of cheap everywhere and owns a .353 wOBA against lefties for his career. Raburn's poor numbers have some to do with a low Babip, though his LD% is also way off his career. The rest of his batted ball numbers seem fine and I think there is some bounceback coming.
Ben Zobrist FanDuel 3700 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 8433
Zobrist hits righties just fine and is in a nice spot against Rienzo who is fairly stinky. Dude strikes out less than 6 per 9 and walks a bunch. The Rays are a patient team and should be able to get an extra at bat or two in here against a pitcher without any significant out pitches.
Troy Tulowitzki FanDuel 5000 DraftKings 5600 DraftStreet 9089
Our system is a bit down on him mostly because of the big price tag. I'm willing to make room for him though if I can find other cheaper options elsewhere just because the position is so weak. Especially today. Tulo crushes lefties over his career and Miley struggles with righties in general. Over Miley's career he has a .323 wOBA against when it comes to right handed hitters. This is probably an overpay, but if I can run some punt-ish types elsewhere I will squeeze him in.
Yunel Escobar FanDuel 2400 DraftKings 2600 DraftStreet 4166
This is about two things. Price and opponent. Yunel isn't great against righties, but Rienzo sucks and Yunel is near rock bottom prices. Very little upside, but like I said, if I don't go Tulo I'm going as cheap as possible.
A note about Alexei Ramirez: I know he's been awesome to start the year. This is on the back of a power surge that I don't think is in any way sustainable. If you bought early, congrats. Now? I think he's priced too high for when the power goes out. Which it will.
Martin Prado FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 3200 DraftStreet 5144
Prado is a phenomenal deal today across the industry. He's playing in a hitter's park against a lefty who has some control issues. Prado OPS'd 850 against lefties last season with a wOBA of 373. He's struggled from the plate which has precipitated a price drop. Time to buy low. He will be a heavy play for me today because the matchup dictates upside and the dollars allow for more flexibility throughout the rest of the lineup.
Evan Longoria FanDuel 4200 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 7883
Vastly prefer when he faces lefties, but Rienzo isn't a great pitcher and Longo still carries an OPS against righties near 800 from last season. That isn't scorching the ball, but it gets the job done. Again, I vastly prefer Prado in nearly every format today, but Longoria is a solid hitter with a good matchup.
Carlos Santana FanDuel 2600 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 5147
Ugh, he's probably broken, but the minimum prices pull me back every time.
Wil Myers FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 3400 DraftStreet 6771
Feel like I have him going up here everyday. I don't love many of the OF options today. The top tier of guys is either injured or facing tough pitchers. So we will have to find some value in the middle. Myers presents one of those options, facing a below average pitcher in Rienzo. Myers is pretty platoon neutral and the price is advantageous.
Cody Ross FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 2500 DraftStreet 5878
For his career, Ross owns insane numbers against lefty pitching. In almost a thousand ABs, Ross has a .395 wOBA and a 145 wRC+. Those numbers are all-star level that are unfortunately paired with a complete inability to hit righty pitching. But we don't care at all about the latter point. He's started off the year slow, but against the lefty Morales this is a great spot for a cheap price in a position that is tough to fill. Love Babe Ross today.
Jay Bruce FanDuel 3900 DraftKings 0 DraftStreet 7245
I'm generally trying to avoid the power arms today, but I could make a small exception with Bruce. Samardzija is a strikeout pitcher, but Bruce's power could counter that downside and he is good enough against righties, with a favorable price tag, that I'm looking his way in some spots.
Alejandro De Aza FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3100 DraftStreet 5570
Adam Eaton FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 3300 DraftStreet 7390
The splits aren't in their favor, but the matchup and prices are. I don't usually like buying in the middle on a less than favorable split, but Odorizzi isn't a strong pitcher and the White Sox lineup has been doing damage this season.
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