Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftStreet, and DraftKings 4/22/14

A full slate of games on Tuesday with plenty of bad pitchers taking the mound. That's exactly what we are looking for. Lots of good value out there. Take advantage.

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Pitchers

David Price FanDuel 8500 DraftKings 10200 DraftStreet 19369
For the money, I would rank Price as the top starting pitching target for the night. Again, this is a money thing. As far as sheet points are concerned, Wainwright is the play. We will get to him in a minute. Price faces the Twins in Tampa Bay. Both of those things are advantages. The Twins, while not as bad as last year, aren't a scary offense by any means. They strike out almost 23% of the time against lefties and have an wRC+ of only 96. That's low. Combine that with the ballpark knocking down power expectation and you've got a great play.

Cash game debate:
Adam Wainwright FanDuel 10000 DraftKings 12500 DraftStreet 22740 or
Jose Fernandez FanDuel 9700 DraftKings 12000 DraftStreet 22025
It'll be interesting to see how cash games shake out tonight. Strictly on number of points, and a target for cash games if you think you can swing the salary, Wainwright and Jose are your plays. Both have been great to start the year. Essentially you are choosing between the better strikeout numbers or the worse opponent. Fernandez has been striking out an insane 12 per 9 (Wainwright about 10/9). But Wainwright gets by far the worse hitting opponent in the Mets. Wainwright is set to regress just a bit because of the strand rate and Babip numbers but the Mets aren't guys who pull you back from running hot. They strikeout a ton, don't have  any consistent power in their lineup and are near the bottom in all hitting categories against righties. The Braves, Fernandez's opponent, strikeout a bunch too, but have a little more power in their lineup. I think I'd go Wainwright, but it's pretty close for me.

Yovani Gallardo FanDuel 6700 DraftKings 9700 DraftStreet 17211
Gallardo comes at a reduced salary today and runs up against one of the bottom feeding offenses against righties in the Padres. The Dads strikeout almost 24% of the time and have an OPS of only 650 against righties this year. While Gallardo's strikeout numbers aren't quite as high as I'd like them to be (which somewhat limits his ultimate upside) he has reduced his walks this season. Not as good as his 1.46 ERA would suggest, but a nice play today nonetheless.

Risk/reward play
Ian Kennedy FanDuel 6100 DraftKings 8400 DraftStreet 14489
Kennedy has been sneaky good this year. He's striking out 8.63/9, walking less than 2 per 9 and has an xFIP of under 3. The Brewers strike out a ton as a team. Again, this is far from safe, but if you are looking to go a little contrarian in GPP and have a little upside, this is not a bad spot to pick.

 

Catchers

Buster Posey FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 5100 DraftStreet 8341
Prices on him are still too low across the industry, especially considering the park and another lefty pitcher on the mound. The FanDuel price is near criminal and he should be 100% started in cash games. You can't punt catcher with him at 3100. It almost is a mistake. I really don't see a reason to start anyone else in any format on that site unless you are just looking to get lucky. From a dollars/ expectation stance he is the best in our FanDuel system by far at any position. On DraftStreet and DraftKings it's a little closer but he's still near the top in both.

Jason Castro FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 6018
Not often going to see Astros mentioned in these parts, unless it's the opposing pitcher. But Castro has serious pop against righties and Erasmo Ramirez isn't much of a pitcher. This is one of the ways to go if getting away from Posey.

Miguel Montero FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 5889
Montero makes for an interesting/ cheaper option playing against Hammel in Wrigley today. He isn't great against righties, but the ballpark helps for sure and Hammel isn't a big K guy. On sites like DraftStreet, where Posey is much more expensive, Montero can provide some salary relief around the same points/ dollar expectation.

 

First Basemen

Quick Addition:
Miguel Cabrera FanDuel 3900 DraftKings 4900 DraftStreet 8725

With Sale out today, you can target most Tigers against the lefty Leesman.

Edwin Encarnacion FanDuel 3900 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 8242
Miguel Gonzalez, over his career, is actually a bit worse against righties. This is real good news for the Blue Jay hitters, a team that I like in some stacking situations tonight. Encarnacion is one of the leaders of that charge. He mashed righties for over a 900 OPS last season. He hasn't gone yard yet this season, but I'm not concerned with that. The only thing that worries me is his strikeout totals well outpacing his career averages. Other than that, he makes a strong play today against a weak pitcher.

Matt Adams FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 5871
Matt Adams has an OPS close to 900 in this early season and faces Dillon Gee who isn't a threat to rack up any real strikeout totals. There are a number of teams that look enticing in stacking situations. The Cards are another one. Especially the lefties in the order as Gee is prone to the long ball from that side of the plate.

Anthony Rizzo FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 7590
I often like Rizzo against righties when he's playing at home because the ballpark really helps in the power department from the left side of the plate. Brandon McCarthy has been inducing a bunch of groundballs this year but his K/9 is less than six.

Joey Votto FanDuel 4300 DraftKings 5700 DraftStreet 8914
Price is all over the place and little steep in some spots but he makes a great cash game play against Edinson Volquez. Votto is one of the most patient hitters in all of baseball which is the death knell for a guy like Volquez who struggles to put hitters away. Votto is nearly guaranteed some sort of point output today because of this making him super safe. A bit steep on DK but consider everywhere else.

 

Second Basemen

Anthony Rendon FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 6905
Rendon comes at some great prices across the industry today against the lefty Skaggs. While Skaggs induces a bunch of grounders, but he hasn't been striking anyone out so far this season. Rendon has been hitting well near the middle of the lineup for the Nats and anytime you can hit behind Harper and Werth (especially when Werth is facing a lefty) you are in terrific shape. Rendon is a little pricey on DraftStreet, but I think you can work to swing it anywhere.

Quick Addition
Ian Kinsler FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 5600 DraftStreet 7763

Same thought as with Miggy. A top 2B option now that Sale is out.

Ben Zobrist FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 7233
Like Longoria, and some other Rays coming up, we are really targeting the pitching matchup against Gibson. Zobrist has started the year with an 850 OPS and is walking more than he's striking out. That is a lethal combo considering who is on the mound and the patience of the Ray lineup is going to pay off big time tonight. It is for sure a squad to stack.

Aaron Hill FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 5459
Don't get fooled by Jason Hammel's early season ERA. He sucks. I'm liking some D-Backs today mostly because of the matchup. While Hill doesn't get the split here, the ballpark in Wrigley does allow more home runs than league average.

 

Shortstops

Shortstop is rough today.

Ian Desmond FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 5127
Desmond has been striking out a ton to start this season, almost 33% of the time. That is not good.* And the price has plummeted because of it. He isn't hitting well. But shortstop is weak tonight and he was passable against lefties last season. There is upside here because of the lineup's ability to hit lefties in general and Desmond could stand to benefit by association as much as by skill.
*Expert analysis

Jose Reyes FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 8374
A little pricey considering the expectation but the matchup is real nice against Gonzalez and Jose had a 354 wOBA against righties last season. Hitting at the top of the order makes him an ideal part of a potential Blue Jays stack today.

Jean Segura FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 4978
On a tough night to navigate the position, I'll take a guy hitting in a decent ballpark as much as anything else. Kennedy has been good to start the season, but some of the other offensive-minded shortstops have real brutal matchups.

 

Third Basemen

Pablo Sandoval FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 5451
A top third base option across the industry. Panda gets the dream ballpark in Coors. I'm going to even look past the splits here, as he's worse against lefties, because the price and milehigh air just are too enticing. This coupled with some other 3B working against decent pitchers tonight and I think you need to go Panda even with the wrong side of the split.

Evan Longoria FanDuel 4100 DraftKings 4800 DraftStreet 7354
Longoria faces off against Kyle Gibson who walks about the same number of guys he strikes out. This, in baseball land, is pretty terrible. I can't imagine the Rays will have any trouble getting to Gibson tonight. Longoria comes down to price as he will cost you significantly more than Sandoval and gets his expected points hit a bit playing in Tampa.

Brett Lawrie FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 5830
I think our system overrates him a little, but on a tough night at the hot corner, you aren't in bad shape going a little cheap and working some other big bats in elsewhere. Miguel Gonzalez really sucks and the Jays could go off in this one.

 

Outfielders

Billy Hamilton FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 6171
Caused havoc on the basepaths in the first inning last night. Just so lightening fast and I love him today against a pitcher who doesn't strike many guys out. Hamilton can be completely overwhelmed by power pitching, so you want to target him on the days where the risk of the K is greatly reduced. Today is one such occasion. Look for him to be on base and off the races.

Hunter Pence FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 7162
His splits against lefties are the things dreams are made of. And Franklin Morales isn't in any hitter's nightmares. (Like what I did there? Fucking literary). As long as the Giants checked into the hotels near Coors, then you want to have them in your lineups. Especially the guys like Pence and Posey who have stark platoon splits against southpaws.

Jayson Werth FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 7003
Werth is another guy with extreme splits that favor him against lefties. He had a ridiculous season last year against that hand with close to an 1.100 OPS and a whopping .461 wOBA. Those numbers are truly insane no matter what way you slice them. Skaggs won't overpower him and the Nationals could put a nice game together.

Jay Bruce FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 7955
Finishing off the run of lefty Reds is Bruce who increases his chances of going yard against Volquez.

Basically whoever is starting in the outfield for Tampa Bay. I like them all.
Desmond Jennings FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 5211
Wil Myers FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 5969
Matt Joyce FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 3200 DraftStreet 5905
This isn't a cop out. I'd consider starting the entire OF in some spots. That's how bad Kyle Gibson is.

 

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