Welcome to another Monday DFS-ites. Decent slate of games going today. DraftStreet is including the Boston Patriot's Day early game, but the other sites aren't. These picks don't include that game. Otherwise, we are good to go.
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If you're coming over from basketball - welcome. If you're a lifelong fantasy baseball player, welcome. I want to give a quick heads up about how we are going to do our baseball picks.
Sites are going to put you in a weird spot today with pitching. If you want to start Darvish or King Felix you will need to pay big time. No doubt about it. On sites like DraftStreet one of them will cost you about 25% of cap. That's insane. Or is it?
The big problem today is that the middle tier of pitching has significant issues in matchup. Teheran faces the Marlins who are, wait for it, first in the league wOBA and OPS versus righties. First!!! Meanwhile Anibal Sanchez faces the White Sox who are third in the league in wOBA (not even factoring in for the batting practice they took yesterday). Who's left? Well, like I said before, at least to start you are going to have to pay.
Felix Hernandez FanDuel 11000 DraftKings 12500 DraftStreet 24842
I think there is a decent case to pay up for Hernandez today. Even at such a crazy number, there seems to be just too much downside along the middle tier of prices. Probably don't need to explain this too much but I will. Houston is just awful. They strikeout 27% of the time and have a team OPS of 600 against righties. King Felix has been nails this season. Just electric. I think you can pay up for him today in cash games.
Cliff Lee FanDuel 9200 DraftKings 10900 DraftStreet 20669
Lee is coming cheaper than Felix, and makes a decent play against the Dodgers. Lee is carrying an xFIP of 2.38, trailing his ERA by more than a run. His K's are up and so is the Babip. The Dodgers strikeout a lot against lefties in a park that surpresses power to righties. There's a lot to like about Lee today, especially as a contrarian play to Felix.
Tyler Lyons FanDuel 4200 DraftKings 5000 DraftStreet 10498
this is completely speculative of course. Lyons was just called up. But he's coming real cheap against the Mets who rank dead last in the majors in strikeouts against lefties. They are K-ing about 30% of the time. That's a crazy number even in a small sample size. Their team OPS is around 630 against southpaws. On sites where you need more than one SP, I'll be slotting in Lyons with some upside, knowing that it is speculation at best.
Buster Posey FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 5100 DraftStreet 7111
You are going to see a majority of the plays from this game. Why? Two so-so pitchers throwing in Coors. I could probably end the article right there. Posey mashes lefties, and de la Rosa has been getting bombed in the early season though some of that is run bad issues. That being said, Posey is too good a deal to pass up considering the park and he isn't cost prohibitive. The top catching option today for the money and it isn't really close.
Wilin Rosario FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 7185
Wilin will find his way into some lineups where I stack Rockies. Even though his splits favor him facing lefties, Vogelsong is rough enough to not have Rosario's multiplier get chipped away at too terribly much. If Posey is 1, Rosario is 1A. But paying more for Rosario in some spots doesn't make a ton of sense to me unless you are stacking Rockies.
Also consider: Mike Zunino and Carlos Ruiz
Miguel Cabrera FanDuel 4000 DraftKings 5000 DraftStreet 9320
One of these days he's going to post a monster. This could very well be that day. John Danks has an xFIP close to 5 this season and Miggy is Miggy. Do you need me to give you the stats? His OPS last season against southpaws was around 1.200. Like Posey, the cost is just too low to ignore. If you can fit him with King Felix, the more the better.
Anthony Rizzo FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 7161
Rizzo is someone I will run out in GPPs because his price is fine and Arroyo gets hammered by lefties. Rizzo has been fine to start the season and the ballpark favors him especially if the wind can pick up a little to right. According to our system, Rizzo is actually at a higher multiplier than Miggy, but I couldn't stomach putting him first.
Justin Morneau FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4900 DraftStreet 9324
I'm going to keep throwing him out there. Did it yesterday and he went yard. He is loving Coors and you should be continuing to buy low on Morneau as he has the added benefit of hitting behind two of the top hitters in baseball. These guys are grouped very closely in our system and I'll be running a variety of combinations involving all of them.
Billy Butler FanDuel 2300 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 4394
If you are looking for a cheap option that is getting harder and harder to believe in, it's Butler. This will probably be the last time I recommend him until he shows there is any life in his bat at all.
Ian Kinsler FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 5600 DraftStreet 8371
I'm also looking to stack some Tigers together today against Danks. Kinsler makes a great option for the price as he is significantly better against lefties. Danks sucks and Ian had a 359 wOBA against southpaws last season.
Jason Kipnis FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 4900 DraftStreet 6638
One other team I'll be targeting today is the Indians. Jeremy Guthrie is one of the worst pitchers going today and Kipnis should be able to get the bat on the ball. Guthrie has an absurdly low 5.38 K/9 rate and lets up the long ball.
DJ LeMahieu FanDuel 2400 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 5858
This is your cheap option in the Rockies stack (or really if you are looking for some salary relief). Makes an even better play if he can find himself hitting second, but should be considered regardless. He isn't a great hitter, but can get on base and swipe a bag here and there. His OBP is around 350 this season and Vogelsong won't be overpowering anyone.
Troy Tulowitzki FanDuel 4300 DraftKings 5300 DraftStreet 9998
I don't love continuing to put the highest price options at the top of the list. And it doesn't always happen, but today you are sort of forced to decide between overpaying for top end pitching, or stacking a lineup of elite stars. I think there are cases for both. Tulo has been crushing this season. One of the big things is he's actually walked 6% more than he's struck out. That won't continue, but it speaks to a patient approach that is paying off early.
Asdrubal Cabrera FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 5701
Prefer him against lefties, but he can find his way into lineups if you are putting Indians together against Guthrie. Cabrera is running a Babip about 50 points lower than his career average while the rest of his numbers are basically in line. Meaning he is probably just getting a little unlucky. Guys like Guthrie are the ones where your luck starts to even out for the better.
Andrew Romine FanDuel 2200 DraftKings 2200 DraftStreet 4196
Alex Gonzalez FanDuel 2200 DraftKings 2700 DraftStreet 3850
Getting a little weird, but if you are looking to punt out shortstop with guys who are facing bad pitching, then line these guys up with a detroit stack. Whoever is starting at least.
Editor's note: Reader Spetty gave heads up that Gonzalez was released today. I'm assuming this makes Romine the starter and a decent punt play.
Couple of real interesting options here today.
David Wright FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 8135
Tyler Lyons was called up to start this game and Wright looks to benefit the most. He owns a career 167 wRC+ and .426 wOBA against lefties. Those numbers are about as high as you're going to see. Wright is a guy to really hone in on when facing the opposite hand. Lyons has had moderate success with K's in his career, but that makes very little difference here.
Carlos Santana FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 5419
Man oh man. I want to preach patience but with each rough outing by Santana that becomes harder and harder. He K'd three times yesterday. And while Morrow is a strikeout pitcher, Santana is having some real contact issues. But the Babip is the real story. He is running at nearly 100 points below his career average there and his walks are actually up. The groundballs are up too. I'm staying strong here. Guthrie has strikeout problems and Santana makes a great upside play today at crazy low prices.
Nolan Arenado FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 6201 and
Pablo Sandoval FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 4354
These guys can go with your respective Rockies/ Giants stacks though it is worth mentioning that both are facing the wrong side of their better platoon split. Still rate out, but they are getting a big bump from the ballpark factors.
Torii Hunter FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 6256 and
Austin Jackson FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 4986
I'm looking to run out both of these guys today against the lefty. Jackson is more of a reverse split guy, but still makes a strong play if putting together Tigers. If I'm choosing just one it's Hunter who OPS'd about 830 against lefties last season. You'l see both played a bunch today because of the matchup and the need to reduce salary in the outfield. OF is the place to save some cash today.
Michael Bourn FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 4987
Our system really likes Bourn today. He's back at the top of the lineup for the Indians and when this offense starts humming a little more he'll be primed to take advantage. Won't give you the long ball but can swipe some bags and score runs. Again, you are looking to save some coin in the outfield today and he's extremely affordable with a good matchup.
Hunter Pence FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 6164
Really delivers against lefties. Like 970 OPS against them last year. That kind of delivers. Gets the Coors bump as well and will be in some squads I put together with Posey and Panda. It's worth it to note that he's trailing his career Babip by about 100 points in the early season so don't be swayed by the depressed batting average.
Corey Hart FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 6777
A lot of his early season FPG average is wrapped up in one game. But our system doesn't know that. What it does know? That Hart, for his career, OPS's nearly 900 against lefties. His price has come up a little in the early going because of the power he's displayed. But I think he still makes a good play against the lefty.
Marlon Byrd FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 5842
A great cheap option against the lefty Maholm. Southpaws are the reason Byrd keeps getting paid.
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