Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftStreet, and DraftKings 4/20/14

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A little note about baseball picks

If you're coming over from basketball - welcome. If you're a lifelong fantasy baseball player, welcome. I want to give a quick heads up about how we are going to do our baseball picks.

 

Pitchers

Tim Lincecum FanDuel 5900 DraftKings 9000 DraftStreet 16380
Prepare to profit today. Lincecum is an insane value across the industry and should be in a majority of your lineups. Some barebones numbers: K-ing more the 10 per 9 innings. He's walking nobody. His ERA? 7.20. His xFIP? 2.36. This guy is running a little bit of terrible on Babip but runs up against the Padres today and it's all about to come back to the middle. Can you tell I'm excited? Good. Let others look at the basics. Play him.

Marco Estrada FanDuel 6600 DraftKings 10900 DraftStreet 18278
On the opposite end of the early spectrum is Estrada whose early numbers aren't totally in line with expectation. The good news is the Pirates are a good team to face when you are struggling. Don't ask Matt Garza about that, but trust me. The Buck-o's aren't a solid offense. The have a team OPS of around 670 against righties and and K% of almost 23%. This is a good spot and price for Marco and you should take advantage.

Yordano Ventura FanDuel 6000 DraftKings 10000 DraftStreet 15525
Everyone is catching up to what we've been preaching. Yordano is the real deal. His early season ERA is insane, and there is a fair amount of regression coming. Some of it might come today honestly, but that doesn't make him a bad play. I'm a little less high on him considering how well the Twins have hit righties this year, but the value is still there. Yordano is K-ing a guy an inning and has limited the walks. He's a good play, but don't overbuy.

Brandon Morrow FanDuel 5500 DraftKings 7400 DraftStreet 16122
You can play him on the upside, knowing he can deliver some big strikeout games, but can also crush your soul in the right moments. I'm mostly on Morrow for price today and slotting him into some GPPs in the event that he turns the juju on. His early season K numbers are strong, but the walks are there. The Indians aren't an ideal matchup but remember that many of the big ticket pitching options have suboptimal pricetags/ matchups.

Updated note: I just saw the line on the Oakland/ Houston game. Our system hasn't corrected for Jesse Chavez's emergence as a legit starter. So I skimmed over him. I think he is a great play today against a weak Houston team.
 

 

Catchers

Miguel Montero FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 5904
There aren't a ton of high tag catchers I like today. Montero offers a nice opportunity against Josh Beckett who's walked a ton of batters in the early season. Beckett shouldn't be feared on the mound any longer and Montero is decent against righties. I also like it from the idea that Beckett can be susceptible to the long ball.

John Jaso FanDuel 2300 DraftKings 3000 DraftStreet 5611
Catcher is always a tough position to fill. Today I'll probably be looking to go as cheap as possible with some upside available. Even though he's been striking out at a higher rate this season, Jaso often hits near the top of the order for the A's and can get on base. Brad Peacock walks a ton of guys and the A's are a patient group. I think that mitigates Peacock's K rate to some degree and Jaso should see an extra look if he's in the one or two hole.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 6401
We gave him to you on Friday and he went yard. Brandon Maurer probably isn't as bad as some of his baseline numbers indicate, but he's not god either. And he has allowed an elevated home run rate in his short time in the majors.

Consider: BusterPosey

 

First Basemen

*Note: There are a bunch of good 1B options today. Almost too many to narrow down. They are making up for the tougher positions.

Justin Morneau FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 7595
I'm targeting lefties against Roberto Hernandez today as for his career they've mashed to the tune of a .355 wOBA. Add that into playing in Coors and Morneau is coming at great prices across the industry today. Going to be hard for me to get away from him in my lineups because besides the statistical upside of what he can do on his own, hitting behind Tulo and Cargo is about a good a situation as you can be in as a five hitter. Morneau has enjoyed his tim on the Rockies so far, mashing a 950 OPS early in the season.

Prince Fielder FanDuel 3900 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 7855
You're also going to want to have some Ranger lefties in your lineups today. Fielder hasn't shown a ton in the way of power this early season. That has kept his price down a bit. Good for you. Erik Johnson strikes out less than 8 per 9 and also gets wild. He's also gotten destroyed by lefties in his short major league career. The sample size is small, but lefties are crushing him for over a 1.000 OPS. Good ballpark, good matchup and reduced tag make Fielder a strong play today.

David Ortiz FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 6988
Picked him yesterday. Went yard yesterday. And though our system doesn't account for that, it is good to see. Papi is an elite bat when he gets rolling downhill and you have to like the matchup against Jimenez today. The Red Sox might grind him down early. His K numbers are way down and the walks are way up. And the HR/9 are through the roof. That's a bad combination against a patient Red Sox squad. Their lineup isn't in the elite tier, but they have good bats. Papi is the best of them all.

Consider: Ryan Howard, Miguel Cabrera

 

Second Basemen

Jason Kipnis FanDuel 3700 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 6856
Weird to recommend a bunch of indians after picking Morrow, but in DFS baseball, picks can be mutually exclusive. There are often cases to be made both ways. The key is to create your lineups based on a variety of logical expectations. The Indian/ Jay game is a good example. Kipnis is another guy to start buying low on based on early season run bad. His walks are way up. his K's are down, but that Babip is driving the price down.

Robinson Cano FanDuel 4300 DraftKings 5000 DraftStreet 8678
Kevin Slowey. Yikes. Cano, like Kipnis, is struggling in the luck department this year, and on sites like DraftStreet that adjust quickly, the price has come down. The only thing keeping him from being a top pick is playing in Miami throws a wet blanket on the power.

Aaron Hill FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 5658
Josh Beckett isn't a pitcher to fear. He has the tendency to get bombed. I don't mind mini stacking a few D-Backs today on it being a Beckett off day.

 

Shortstops

Jose Reyes FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 8930
He's back from injury and back to hitting at the top of this lineup. He's coming cheap on FanDuel and really is a deal across the industry. Carlos Carrasco has some early season K success, though his numbers are a bit out of nowhere so I don't exactly trust them. I don't love all of the Blue Jays today, but SS is never easy to fill so having Reyes back at least adds another decent name tot he mix.

Asdrubal Cabrera FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 5811
Another Indian. They are all over this thing today. Cabrera is here because the Indians are underpriced across the board. That's important to recognize in the quest to find good stacking teams. Even though Morrow is a strikeout pitcher. At times the prices for a team dictate putting them together even against a decent, though unreliable arm.

Jimmy Rollins FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 5000 DraftStreet 7054
Still playing in Coors.

 

Third Basemen

Carlos Santana FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 5142
This pick is based primarily on price. Because man has he been awful so far. The thing is: baseball's a long season and Santana is a good hitter. In the DFS world you are going to take some lumps buying low. But then it'll pay. Santana is an example of that. He hits in the middle of the lineup and is a top value at 3B today even against a strikeout pitcher in Morrow. I'm continuing to buy low here and you should too.

Kyle Seager FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 4303
In the best of times, Kevin Slowey is merely a mediocre pitcher. In the worst of times? he blows. The Mariner's stack was a bit of a problem last night, but that's why we do this DFS thing. To start anew. Baseball is the perfect opportunity and Seager is significantly better against righties. Update: Seager is sitting today

Mike Moustakas FanDuel 2500 DraftKings 3400 DraftStreet 5128
Phil Hughes is a flyball pitcher. Moustakas is a guy who will one day put it all together and turn into the power hitter who feasts off flyball pitchers. His early season struggles are on the back of an insane .125 Babip. Other shit looks pretty good. Strikeouts are down. Walks are up. He is coming cheap and I think there is upside here.

Evan Longoria DraftStreet 6366
Coming at a discount against the lefty Nuno.

 

Outfielders

Shin-Soo Choo FanDuel 4200 DraftKings 4800 DraftStreet 7028
On opposite day, Choo turned in a nice game against a lefty yesterday. That is a rare thing. He makes his bones off of righties and that's where you should target him. While Erik Johnson's K rate is up a bit, the walks are there as well. Choo is patient and the Rangers could put a hurting on today.

Billy Hamilton FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 7018
Still buying on Hamilton with the speed upside. We recommended him yesterday and he went 3-5 with a stolen base. Carlos Villanueva isn't the kind of pitcher who will be able to overwhelm Hamilton (believe me, plenty of them can). Look for Billy to get on base and create havoc once again.

Carlos Gonzalez FanDuel 4800 DraftKings 5900 DraftStreet 10212
I don't know what's gotten into Roberto Hernandez, but I don't like it. I keep picking guys against him and he keeps striking people out. I think the luckbox run comes to an end today in Coors. Cargo is so lethal and even with an elevated pricetag, he's still a value play today.

Mitch Moreland FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 6436 and
Leonys Martin FanDuel 2600 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 6864
Like Choo, I'm willing to target guys against Johnson today because he is a guy getting crushed by lefties. I'll be stacking Rangers in some spots today and these guys will feature in those lineups. My only concern with Martin is how low he hits in the order, but the prices reflect that issue.

Adam Eaton FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 7980
Alejandro De Aza FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3000 DraftStreet 5260
Let others be fooled by Robbie Ross's early season 1.00 ERA. He isn't an ace or anything close to it. He only strikes out 6.5 dudes per 9 and has an elevated walk rate. His xFIP is more than three runs higher than his actual ERA. That spells regression. Granted, the White Sox aren't the 1927 Yankees but Eaton and de Aza should see some extra opportunity today in a good ballpark.

Christian Yelich FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 8296
Our system has him really high against Maurer.

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