Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftStreet, and DraftKings 4/18/14

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A little note about baseball picks

If you're coming over from basketball - welcome. If you're a lifelong fantasy baseball player, welcome. I want to give a quick heads up about how we are going to do our baseball picks.

Unlike basketball, contextual information matters very little baseball. Guys rarely take days off, and "playing well recently" means almost nothing. Playing time hardly ever changes (unlike in basketball where guys can increase their opportunities by 50% on a coach's whim), and when it does, it's fairly obvious.

So, we're going to be giving picks each day without huge write-ups. The only thing that changes about a player in a given day (for the most part) is the park he's playing in and the pitcher he is facing. Most of the other stuff is noise, unless a player has drastically changed his position in the lineup. For pitchers, all that really matters is who they are facing, which park, and if they've been recently injured.

We cool?

Let's do it.

Pitchers

Matt Cain FanDuel 7400 DraftKings 9300 DraftStreet 16344
The reasons for this pick probably go without saying, but indulge me. Cain looks for all the world like a pitcher in decline, but this match-up plays to all of his strengths. His major weakness - the long ball - is mitigated by San Diego's terrific home park. The guy pitching for his opponent, Tyson Ross, has outperformed his peripherals considerably so far this year, and his 5 bb/9 isn't going to allow him to maintain an ERA under 4 for much longer.

Jon Niese FanDuel 5700 DraftKings 8100 DraftStreet 12332
Niese has had some tough luck in the win department this year, but he's back to looking like the promising pitcher the Mets thought they had during Niese's break out season 2 years ago. His control has been excellent, and he is actually running bad with his hr/fly ball rate. He's got a nice opportunity for a win with Harang going on the other side - so all systems are go for Niese here.

Sonny Gray FanDuel 8000 DraftKings 10200 DraftStreet 17001
If I decide to go a little more expensive at pitcher today, I'm fading the Gio/Greinke duo and going with Gray. The Astros are hor-rendous (hyphen for emphasis) against right handers, and Gray has simply been dominant in his home games over the course of his short career.

Also considered - lots of cheap guys, and in particular Nathan Eovaldi.

Catchers

Jarrod Saltalamacchia FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 5618
You can't dream up a better match-up for the switch hitting Salty. He's got a .795 OPS vs. righties, and a .607 OPS against lefties. And Chris Young features equally extreme splits. Games like these are what keep Saltalamacchia in the majors.

Miguel Montero FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 4848
A very affordable price for Montero, especially when facing a right handed pitcher. Los Angeles is obviously not an ideal place to hit, but I'm really liking Montero in this match-up, even if Greinke has been terrific this year.

Victor Martinez FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 6858
V-mart's been an even better version of his 2013 self this year, and is striking out at a ridiculously low clip of 2.3%. When he's seeing the ball like this, I'll take him at these low prices against basically anyone.

Also considered - Tyler Flowers.

First Basemen

Justin Morneau FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 8222
Alas, Jonathan Pettibone, we hardly knew ye. Morneau is a central part to playing in Coors meat grinder experience, and you'll read this again, but this isn't going to go well for him. Morneau prefers righties, and especially righties with the last name Pettibone.

Ryan Howard FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 4800 DraftStreet 7223
Sometimes I play Ryan Howard just to make it feel like it's 2007 again, and I'm back playing poker for a living. Other times, I play him because he's facing a right handed pitcher in Coors Field. Chatwood is actually not the ideal match-up for Howard, because while he doesn't strike anyone out, he induces a TON of grounders. I'm betting the loft in Howard's swing overcomes the sink on Chatwood's sinker.

David Ortiz FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 7206
Ortiz has been struggling a little bit recently, but most of Ortiz's considerable fortune has come from hitting right handed pitching in Fenway. Tillman is running hot (obviously) with his sub-1 ERA this year, and I'm feeling very good about Ortiz's chances for a big game.

Second Basemen

Daniel Murphy FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 6909
Murphy has a career .343 wOBA against righties, and a .298 wOBA against lefties. I'm not buying the Harang resurgence, personally. I like Murphy for a very solid performance today.

Ian Kinsler FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 7468
I'd like the match-up a lot more if Kinsler were facing a lefty, but he's still been better than league average vs. right handed pitching for his career, and he's been tearing the cover off of the ball recently. It certainly seems like Weaver's best days are behind him, and I think Kinselr takes advantage.

Howie Kendrick FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 6362
I get it if you're a little scared of playing Kendrick - but follow me for a second. His BABIP is 45 points off his career average, and he's about 8% better against lefties for his career. He's bounced back quite a bit, fantasy wise, in the last week or so as well. I prefer the guys above, but if you're feeling some other Angels, Kendrick could make a solid play.

Shortstops

Derek Jeter FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 3200 DraftStreet 5278
The Captain hasn't exactly been lighting the world on fire, but have you seen Erik Bedard? The shell of his former self is coming off a season with a 4.47 BB/9 rate and a 4.61 xFIP. Unless Jeter is totally done, I think his patient approach will give Bedard fits.

Everth Cabrera FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 4478
Cabrera is a cool player, because he has no time for your fancy park factors, or your fancy platoon splits, or any of that. He gets on base with his contact skills and wheels, and produces his fantasy value likewise. I think he gets on base and tries some running, which could produce plenty of value on these numbers.

Troy Tulowitzki FanDuel 4600 DraftKings 5500 DraftStreet 8914
You're obviously paying here, but I just love Troy against weak pitchers who elevate the ball at home. Especially like pairing him with Morneau here.

Also considered - Brad Miller (especially for a stack), Erick Aybar, Jimmy Rollins.

Third Basemen

David Wright FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 6003
Wright is a lefty killer, but the system positively hates Harang. There's really all there is to this ranking - but the system does like Wright quite a bit more than the other 3b today.

Carlos Santana FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 5604
While it's true that Santana has been better against lefties for his career, it really isn't by much. He's also got a higher ISO against right handed pitching, and Drew Hutchison isn't exactly Jimmy Key, or (insert other well known Blue Jay here).

Kyle Seager FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3400 DraftStreet 4225
Kyle Seager joins the rest of his brothers from the drizzlin'-city in his preference for hitting right handed pitching. I almost chose Headley for this spot, but the stack possibilities are simply too juicy (plus, mad street cred on winning with a Seattle stack. Seattle stack sounds like it should be a WNBA team. I digress).

Also considered - Chase Headley.

Outfielders

Christian Yelich FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 8066
Everything I wrote for Salty goes 10x for Yelic, whose lefty/righty splits are just as dramatic. The system is passionately in love with Yelich in this contest, and I have to be real with you: so am I. So am I.

Carlos Gonzalez FanDuel 4700 DraftKings 5700 DraftStreet 10048
By the time we get down to outfielders, much of what can be said about match-ups has been said. Obviously, you're spending out the ass if you try to pair all the Rockies together. My suggestion? If you have to choose 2, pony up for Morneau and Gonzalez. Gonzalez is pure beast mode against right handers at home, featuring a staggering 1.056 OPS in that scenario. And a lot of those right-handers were > John Pettibone.

Adam Eaton FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 5100 DraftStreet 7484
I have to say, I really didn't see Eaton's game translating to the Majors - but he's exactly as advertised: an on-base machine with great run scoring ability. He's also a reverse-platoon split guy, so this match-up against fellow youngster Perez plays right into his strengths. He's been great for the south-siders so far this season, and I have to grudgingly admit that I think it will continue.

Shin-Soo Choo FanDuel 3900 DraftKings 4800 DraftStreet 7775
Regular readers will know of my love affair with my little choo choo train. The power hasn't been there this year, but this should be made up for by the fact that Felipe Paulino has been, politely speaking, dog shit. The right hander can't find the plate, and Choo has an 18% walk rate this year. I'm sniffing out a blood-bath here.

Curtis Granderson FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 5168
Sort of a condemnation of Harang more than a praise of the Grandy man, but you've also got to consider some positive factors in play with the rest of the Mets lineup (a nice matchup for Murphy, Wright). I'll probably play Granderson in a few places where I play the other two as well.

Austin Jackson FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 5788
Reverse platoon split guy Jackson should make the most of Weeaver's struggles, and there is a huge amount of run scoring possibility in that incredibly deep and deadly Detroit lineup.

Domonic Brown FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 6926
He might rank higher if I weren't concerned about Chatwood's ground-ball tendencies, but none-the-less, I'm going to typically take Brown at these prices when facing pitchers of his preferred handedness in the lovely mile high air.

Also considered - Aaron Hicks, Alex Gordon, Alejandro De Aza

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