Bit of a lighter day in the MLB today. But that's great as you transition out of the NBA regular season for good. Phew.
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We're going to be giving picks each day without huge write-ups. The only thing that changes about a player in a given day (for the most part) is the park he's playing in and the pitcher he is facing. Most of the other stuff is noise, unless a player has drastically changed his position in the lineup. For pitchers, all that really matters is who they are facing, which park, and if they've been recently injured.
AS a note, I don't think I'm paying up for any of the top end pitchers, at least on FanDuel. Their expectation just doesn't match the price tags and I don't think there's much of a case. It just diminishes your upside across the board to roll out one of the expensive guys. The cases are a little different on the two (or three) pitcher sites.
CC Sabathia FanDuel 6700 DraftKings 7900 DraftStreet 16023
CC got bombed in his first game of the season against the Astros. He looked awful. Since then he's had some so-so games against Toronto and Boston. But consider this: Sabathia is K-ing almost 10 guys per 9. His strand rate is below his career averages and his xFIP is 2.38 (as compared to a 6.63 ERA). I think people will be off CC today because some of the other numbers look so bad. The Rays aren't a dynamic offensive powerhouse. And though they've hit lefties ok, I think CC is in an advantageous spot because Tropicana Field really surpresses power from both sides of the plate.
Yovani Gallardo FanDuel 6700 DraftKings 9400 DraftStreet 16029
Before we go crazy for Gallardo's early season success, it is important to note that he's done much of it on the back of a 90% strand rate that is anything but sustainable. He also hasn't allowed a home run. That too is unsustainable. This pick is as much about price as anything. Even with regression Gallardo still has a nice matchup against the Pirates (with a weak bottom half of their lineup).
Ian Kennedy FanDuel 6000 DraftStreet 13426
Though I'm going to recommend some Rockies hitters against him later in the article, Kennedy does actually make a strong play today. He is K'ing 8.5 guys per 9 and has really limited his walks early in the season. If this trend continues, Kennedy could put a nice season together. His ERA (4.24) is trailing his xFIP (3.38) and he's kept the homeruns down. Granted, our system doesn't pull from the small sample size of this season, these numbers are there to just add credence to the pick. Essentially, Kennedy is pitching to what some of his projections thought he could do. I like him against the Rockies today.
R.A. Dickey FanDuel 7000 DraftKings 8400 DraftStreet 16357
We had Dickey as a play yesterday and this assuming he gets the start today. As of time of this post it hadn't been announced. Below is what we wrote yesterday and really nothing has changed. "I'm not a big believer in Dickey generally, but the Twins were in the lower third of the league in terms of OPS against righties last year, and Dickey should be able to rack up a few Ks against some of the Twins' freer swingers."
Yasmani Grandal FanDuel 3000 DraftStreet 5847
You know it's a tough day at catcher when the top pick comes with the caveat, *I think he'll start. Grandal, while not a world beater, does hit lefties well and Franklin Morales isn't exactly Randy Johnson. Even with San Diego keeping power limited, Grandal makes a cheaper option on a day that you'll probably want to avoid spending big bucks behind the plate.
Buster Posey FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4800 DraftStreet 6115
I usually don't like recommending guys facing off against strong opposing pitcher but catcher is pretty weak today and I don't feel comfortable with many of the other options. It would be a tough to swallow paying up for Posey against Ryu, but Buster does crush lefties so the value could be there in cash games.
Consider Dioner Navarro
Justin Morneau FanDuel 3100 DraftStreet 6038
Despite being known as a pitcher's park, Petco Park does let up home runs to lefties. Last year, their park factors indicate it was the sixth best place for lefties in terms of power.* This helps give Morneau a boost even against Ian Kennedy who does have a K or two in him. But Kennedy can be susceptible to the long ball. I'm running Morneau in all formats today.
*(Justin went yard there last night literally as I was typing this up)
Prince Fielder FanDuel 3700 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 7510
Lot of good pitchers going today, meaning you'll want to really hone in on the bad ones. Erasmo Ramirez is one such pitcher. Ramirez is sporting a 5.25 xFIP this season on the back of a 5.63 K/9. Prince finally got the power going last game and has a great chance to do so again.
Adam Lind FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 6277 and
Edwin Encarnacion FanDuel 4400 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 7354
If you're looking for stacks, the Blue Jays could be the squad to run. Don't let Kyle Gibson's 1.59 ERA fool you. He has a 5.71 xFIP and has walked more guys than he's struck out. The only thing tempering my excitement over the Jays is that it is going to be real cold in Minneapolis tomorrow and frigid temps limit power.
Strongly consider: Matt Adams
Jedd Gyorko FanDuel 3100 DraftStreet 5464
You are going to want target Gyorko against lefties as his splits are significant. He had an OPS of .830 against lefties last season with a wOBA .357. And if that doesn't sell you, Franklin Morales allowed over an 800 OPS to righties last season. This is a great place to meet on the graph.
Jose Altuve FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 5678
Once upon a time, little Jose wasn't too bad of a hitter. But times have been tough. On a weak day for the position, I would consider plugging him in against the lefty Bruce Chen. Altuve is hitting cleanup for the Astros and the addition of George Springer makes their lineup just a little meatier. Editor's note: Chen has been scratched and Shields will start today. Downgrade Altuve
Kolten Wong FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 6634
Should be in the lineup today against Taylor Jordan and Taylor Jordan might get bombed by the Cardinals. That alone is almost enough reason to float Wong.
Everth Cabrera FanDuel 3000 DraftStreet 6272
Cabrera is one of our top, for-the-money options at shortstop. He's been slightly better over his career against lefties and comes at a low price on a day where SS options are rather limited because of some of the other pitching matchups. I like his ability to swipe some bases and could be in for a decent line against Morales.
Jean Segura FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 5750
Edison Volquez is another guy we shouldn't get fooled into thinking he's suddenly some kind of ace. Though he has a 1.29 ERA, his xFIP is 3.57 and his Edison's numbers are bolstered by a low Babip and high strand rate. Those will regress, and soon. Look for Segura to get on base. And though the platoon splits don't favor the righty-righty matchup, this is as much about the guy standing on the mound.
Consider Troy Tulowitzki and Yunel Escobar
Aramis Ramirez FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 7342
Many of the reasons I recommended Segura apply to Aramis today. Volquez isn't a good pitcher. Ramirez doesn't get crushed by the splits either. He had a .361 wOBA against righties last season, so he can hit those guys. I would definitely pair Ramirez and Segura together today.
Evan Longoria FanDuel 4100 DraftKings 5000 DraftStreet 6334
I'm not a huge fan of going against Sabathia today, even with the R-L matchup for Longoria. CC has been better than his numbers indicate this season, and the K's are up. That being said, he's not bullet proof and Longoria crushes lefties. Could be a nice play that won't be a heavy start because of CC.
Brett Lawrie FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 5470
As I said for Lind and Encarnacion, Kyle Gibson is dogshit and the Jays could blow this thing wide open if the cold doesn't keep down the power. Lawrie is consistently near the top of our system because there is a some upside there and his prices hover near the bottom. If you think the Jays turn the lineup over an extra time or two against Gibson then Lawrie makes a real cheap option at third.
Shin-Soo Choo FanDuel 3700 DraftKings 4800 DraftStreet 7541
Get Choo in your lineups today. He is a righty killer and Erasmo Ramirez is just the kind of righty Choo can destroy. I'll be paying for Choo across the board today on this upside alone and he is the top OF play today.
Mitch Moreland FanDuel 2400 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 5383
The reasons to play Moreland fall in line with every other Ranger mentioned here. One other thing to mention is that Arlington provides a big power boost to lefties and is one of the top parks for lefty batters to jack one out.
Jose Bautista FanDuel 4800 DraftKings 5200 DraftStreet 8477
To go with your Blue Jay stack. I'm working like hell to get Jose into my lineups today even with the big price tag. Just too good of a matchup to pass up. But remember, as I said above, the one thing that has me a little concerned is the cold weather. It is a real thing in terms of decreasing power.
Carlos Gonzalez FanDuel 4800 DraftStreet 8798
To go with targeting lefties in Petco Park, Cargo has a chance to go yard today against Kennedy. The strikeouts from Kennedy are a bit of a concern but not enough to sway me especially if I can save bucks up the middle. I'll be spending on OF today.
Colby Rasmus FanDuel 4000 DraftKings 4900 DraftStreet 6197 and
Melky Cabrera FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4800 DraftStreet 7394
These guys go great with your Blue Jay stack if that's the way you want to go. Both have the platoon advantage against Gibson.
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