Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftStreet, and DraftKings 4/15/14

Another Tuesday in baseball, and you'll want to watch out for weather on the East Coast. Keep an eye on New York and Baltimore especially.

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A little note about baseball picks

If you're coming over from basketball - welcome. If you're a lifelong fantasy baseball player, welcome. I want to give a quick heads up about how we are going to do our baseball picks.

Unlike basketball, contextual information matters very little baseball. Guys rarely take days off, and "playing well recently" means almost nothing. Playing time hardly ever changes (unlike in basketball where guys can increase their opportunities by 50% on a coach's whim), and when it does, it's fairly obvious.

So, we're going to be giving picks each day without huge write-ups. The only thing that changes about a player in a given day (for the most part) is the park he's playing in and the pitcher he is facing. Most of the other stuff is noise, unless a player has drastically changed his position in the lineup. For pitchers, all that really matters is who they are facing, which park, and if they've been recently injured.

We cool?

Let's do it.

Editor's note: The database we pull from had an error and Texas starter Robbie Ross was listed as a righty, thereby overweighting Mariner lefties. We've taken them down and are correcting now. That being said, even with the platoon splits, Robbie Ross is below average and M's prices are low across board.

 

Pitchers

Brandon Morrow FanDuel 5600 DraftKings 7600 DraftStreet 16876
The system calls Morrow's number again, and for good reason. While he was a little ugly against the Astros - he did exactly what we were hoping he would do. He locked down a win, and scored a bunch of Ks. The Twins had a sub-.700 OPS vs. righties last year, and Morrow should rack up some Ks even if he gives up a few runs. He's a risky play by definition, but the upside for 3x on these prices is very real.

Robbie Erlin FanDuel 4200 DraftKings 9000 DraftStreet 13135
Today's a day I'm skimping on pitching. Erlin has been quite good so far this year, and Colorado just isn't the same away from home. The big factor in play here is Morales. He's been HORRENDOUS so far this year, and the system hated him to begin with. Erlin doesn't need to shut the Rockies out to produce a huge multiplier here - he only needs to pitch 5-6 innings and get a win.

Cliff Lee FanDuel 8800 DraftKings 10800 DraftStreet 18809If you must spend at pitcher, Cliff Lee is the guy I'm taking. He's available for sub-ace prices, and he's basically been his old self in his last 2 starts. Ignore the runs, which can come across due to luck, and you'll see a guy who struck out more than a guy per innings with 0 walks. He's looked hittable this year, but a lot of the Braves' mojo comes from the left side, and I think Lee will have a fine game.

 

Catchers

A.J. Pierzynski FanDuel 2600 DraftKings 3400 DraftStreet 5805
Righty-crusher Pierzynski draws the best possible match-up on planet Earth for his skill set. Erik Johnson just isn't a major league pitcher, and the White Sox play in a stadium that's terrific for lefty sluggers. My best catcher play by far.

Brian McCann FanDuel 3700 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 5572
Hopefully you grabbed McCann last time we recommended him, when he hit 2 homers. Batting in the middle of a lefty-heavy group of Yankee hitters, McCann should see plenty of good pitches, and he's proven he can still do something with them.

There's a big group of guys that look similar to me after these 2, including Buster Posey, Yasmani Grandal, and Evan Gattis if he plays.

 

First Basemen

David Ortiz FanDuel 3800 DraftKings 4800 DraftStreet 7686
Papi is showing signs of wear and tear, but that's meaningless in this match-up. Chicago is a fantastic place for lefty power hitters, and Erik Johnson is a dream match-up for Ortiz's slightly declining bat speed. Ortiz will get some numbers this year regardless of his age, and one has to think a lot of them will come in games like this.

Prince Fielder FanDuel 3700 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 6087
Blake Beavan would be hard pressed to find a situation where he's more overmatched than in this one. He's a fly-ball pitcher, and this just isn't the place to go take on Prince and the Texas offense for a righty who strikes out just 5.5 K/9.

Also considered: Joe Mauer, Chris Davis, Adam Dunn. On Draftstreet, Chris Carter is a ridiculously low $1,158 - a joke of a price with huge upside.

 

Second Basemen

Jedd Gyorko FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 5174
Gyorko has been turning it around recently, and quite frankly, he's been waiting for this moment all season. A lot of his slow start can be attributed to having just 6 PAs against lefties - against whom he has a 127 wRC+ for his career, as opposed to a 97 wRC+ vs. righties. And Morales, as previously noted, is essentially awful. Note: Colorado starting Nicasio, not Morales as reported

Ian Kinsler FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 6992
More an indictment of McAllister, Kinsler prefers lefties, but is still better than league average vs righties for his career. A lot of this comes from the fact that a lot of the guys hitting around him will have a nice match-up against McAllister, as well.

Also considered - Neil Walker. Finally went yard last night and the price keeps climbing down. The projection remains the same. Steady hands might be rewarded, but it's not for me today with Cano and Gyorko going.

 

Shortstops

Everth Cabrera FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 4216
Padres stack alert! The light-hitting Cabrera's fantasy value isn't negatively impacted at home, since he brings home the bacons with average, runs, and steals. He's a tick better against lefties for his career, and Morales is more than a tick worse than most lefties.Note: Colorado starting Nicasio, not Morales as reported

Chris Owings FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 2700 DraftStreet 4162
Owings, for some of his struggles, still has a .340 OBP and 4 steals this year. Terrific match-up against Mejia at home, as the D-backs are pretty strong against righties.

Also considered: Asdrubal Cabrera.

 

Third Basemen

Chase Headley FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 5476
Headley isn't quite as platoon dependent as most power hitters, and Morales really is that bad at this stage in his career. Headley can hit a little bit at Petco, and I expect Morales to get run off the field like he has every other time this season. Headley will be at the center of that.Note: Colorado starting Nicasio, not Morales as reported

Kelly Johnson FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 5845
An old favorite of mine, KJ has been playing very well recently, with 3 homers in the last week+. Hammel has been pretty great this year, but the new-look Yankees should give him fits in lefty stadium. Johnson's actually platoon neutral, but he should still make the most of this one.

Also considered - Carlos Santana, Pedro Alvarez.

 

Outfielders

Shin-Soo Choo FanDuel 3800 DraftKings 4800 DraftStreet 7686
Choo smokes righties, and he really smokes bad righties. Meet Blake Beaven. Beaven struggles with a few simple things in the world of pitching. He doesn't strike people out and he gets blasted by home runs. So, yeah.

Grady Sizemore FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 6475
Still a great story. Still a chance to pay the day. Still hitting in a solid lineup.

Jacoby Ellsbury FanDuel 4400 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 8066
Jacoby is one of the more expensive outfielders on the day, but that's okay by me. Jason Hammel is a guy who's operated with a FIP close to 5 last season. And this year he's outperforming his peripherals. Look for Ellsbury to get on base and make the most of it.

Nick Markakis FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 5369
A big thing with MLB DFS is not getting wrapped up in when a guy burns you. Last night, as the O's were manhandling Archer, Markakis was silent. This is tough to swallow. But he is still hitting leadoff, has a nice matchup against the righty Odorizzi and plays in a hitter's park.

Carlos Beltran FanDuel 4300 DraftKings 5600 DraftStreet 7470
Many of the same rules for Ellsbury apply to BeltrAAAN (trying to type that like Johnny Miller says it). Carlos OPS'd 870 against righties last season and we all know what Yankee stadium is like for lefties.

Curtis Granderson FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 5604
Going out on a bit of a limb here as Granderson has started the season hitting about .160. But we don't care about that. What we do care about is Bronson Arroyo and his inability to get lefties out. Plus the price on Granderson has dropped. This is a great spot to take a stab at the Grandyman.

Austin Jackson FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 5961
Jackson has been decent against righties in his career, so the reverse split thing isn't a huge issue in this one. Zach McAllister isn't a big strikeout guy, a problem Austin has had in his career.

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