Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, and Drafstreet 4/12/14

INSERT WITTY INTRO HERE! (but seriously, on to the picks)

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A little note about baseball picks

If you're coming over from basketball - welcome. If you're a lifelong fantasy baseball player, welcome. I want to give a quick heads up about how we are going to do our baseball picks.

Unlike basketball, contextual information matters very little baseball. Guys rarely take days off, and "playing well recently" means almost nothing. Playing time hardly ever changes (unlike in basketball where guys can increase their opportunities by 50% on a coach's whim), and when it does, it's fairly obvious.

So, we're going to be giving picks each day without huge write-ups. The only thing that changes about a player in a given day (for the most part) is the park he's playing in and the pitcher he is facing. Most of the other stuff is noise, unless a player has drastically changed his position in the lineup. For pitchers, all that really matters is who they are facing, which park, and if they've been recently injured.

We cool?

Let's do it.

Pitchers

Justin Verlander FanDuel 8200 DraftKings 11800 DraftStreet 19177
Verlander is a puzzle. He's gotten decent results so far, but the Ks simply aren't there, and might never be again. The good news is he's facing a terrible hitting team in a terrific pitcher's park. At less than ace prices, I think Verlander is the top pick today.

Taylor Jordan FanDuel 4300 DraftKings 7000 DraftStreet 10499
Jordan is a very interesting pitcher. An extreme control guy with a nice groundball rate, he's actually quite a bit better than his strike-out totals suggest. He won't pile on the Ks, but he's dirt cheap, and could absolutely get a win here.

Jered Weaver FanDuel 7100 DraftKings 9000 DraftStreet 17248
Like Verlander, we've likely seen the best of Weaver, but that doesn't mean we can't take him in great matchups. The Mets are a mess against righties, and Anaheim is one of the underrated pitcher's parks.

Also of great consideration: James Shields, Bud Norris, Justin Masterson

 

Catchers

Jarrod SaltalamachiaSalty has some pretty good results this year, even with the ridiculous K rate. The good news for him is that Pettibone is hardly a strikeout artist, and Philly is a terrific home park for his approach.

Victor Martinez FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 7141
No one likes playing in Petco, but V-mart should be bothered less than most. He generates a ton of his value away from the long ball, and while it won't help his counting stats to have his teammates impacted by the park, Kennedy has been worse than his reputation these last two years.

Brian McCann FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 3934
Speaking of guys I'm not sold on - I love McCann against Lackey. True - McCann hasn't produced yet this year. But a lot of that is wrapped up in a .194 BABIP. Facing Lackey in Yankee Stadium is a nice spot for him - and he got a day of rest to prepare for this one.

If you want to put a few Giants righties in, Posey makes a good play today as well.

 

First Basemen

David Ortiz FanDuel 3800 DraftKings 4900 DraftStreet 7865
Still one of the best hitting guys who qualifies at this position, Ortiz has a fantastic match-up in the righty Kuroda, and a perfect park for his swing. He's got an OPS .160 points higher vs. righties for his career.

Billy Butler FanDuel 2500 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 5676
Not much to say here except that this price is a joke. Pricing Butler less than Lucas Duda is a crime against humanity, and he could easily has a very nice game against the aged Nolasco.

Joey Votto FanDuel 3800 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 6522
Votto is off to a slow-ish start, but he's one of the very best in the game, and benefits from facing the right hander Cobb in his favorable home park.

Also receiving strong consideration: Adam Dunn and Justin Morneau.

 

Second Basemen

Ben Zobrist FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 6127
Alfredo Simon embarrassed the Mets in his first start since 2011, but he's always been a pretty lousy starter, and I don't know why getting 3 years older would have made him any better. I love this match-up for the patient Zobrist, who could have a huge day.

Neil Walker FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 3400 DraftStreet 5843
A daily play against righties until the price climbs, which it will. Gallardo isn't the scary match-up he once was, and the Pirates all benefit from getting away from their pitcher-friendly home park.

Dan Uggla FanDuel 2500 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 4942
No two ways about it - Uggla has been brutal this year, but the system still likes him quite a bit against the inexperienced Jordan. Uggla is a reverse-platoon split guy, with an OPS 50 pts better against right-handers for his career.

 

Shortstops

Hanley Ramirez FanDuel 4500 DraftKings 5600 DraftStreet 7871
Hanley's been fantastic recently, and while he's only marginally better against lefties, facing Miley in Arizona is a dream matchup for him. He's hitting for power and running so far this year, and I think this game could be a monster.

Chris Owings FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 2800 DraftStreet 4021
Owings is an entirely different player against right-handers at this early stage in his career, and while Greinke posted a nice ERA last year, he really outperformed his peripherals. Arizona is a great place to hit, and I see Greinke struggling here.

Elvis Andrus FanDuel 3800 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 6517
Cosart is a very nice match-up for Andrus, whose solid all-around game should give him lots of run scoring and base stealing opportunities in the Texas heat.

Also considered: Erick Aybar, Asdrubal Cabrera.

 

Third Basemen

Ryan Zimmerman FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 6682
It's a pretty rough day for 3rd basemen, and Zimmerman tops the list sort of by default. He's a nice play against lefties like Wood, but the bigger tale today is the weakness at the position elsewhere.

Carlos Santana FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 6133
I don't trust Paulino yet, and while the switch hitting Santana is better against lefties, he's more than serviceable against righties - especially those with potential control problems.

Mike Moustakas FanDuel 2500 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 4769
I get that it's tough to pull the trigger on literal 1-hit wonder Mike Moustakas, but unless you think he is going to go hitless for the rest of the year, you have to consider him against Nolasco. The strikeouts are actually down for Moustakas this year. He'll be back soon enough, and I think this could be the game.

Also considered: Brett Lawrie, Chase Headley, and Aramis Ramirez

 

Outfielders

Christian Yelich FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4800 DraftStreet 7168
No one gets happier to see a weak righty on the mound than Christian Yelich. The youngster is a menace to righties, and Philly's small dimensions play perfectly to his power-oriented approach.

Melky Cabrera FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4900 DraftStreet 7264
The Melk-man has been producing terrifically on this number all season now that he seems fully healthy, and he'll enjoy a favorable platoon match-up against Norris.

Austin Jackson FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 6395
Another severe reverse-platoon split guy, Jackson features an OPS .60 points better against right-handers for his career. His speed and average oriented game shouldn't be bothered by Petco's dimensions.

Hunter Pence FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 6046
I love Brett Anderson, or at least what he used to be - but the dude just doesn't have it this year. If he's going to struggle with his control and not K guys, Pence could really eat his lunch in this match-up.

Jason Heyward FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 8906
Heyward is an extreme platoon guy, which is a lot of why he hasn't lived up to what we thought we'd get from him, fantasy wise. That's why daily fantasy baseball is awesome, though. You can take him in his good matchups, and root against him in his bad ones! This would be one of the good ones.

B.J. Upton FanDuel 2500 DraftKings 3200 DraftStreet 4782
It's tough to recommend such an undisciplined player, even at these bargain prices, but I actually like Upton against Jordan today. Jordan works around the zone and rarely strikes guys out, which might give Upton a chance for a very nice game.

Domonic Brown FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 6498
Brown's best situation, by a mile, is at home, vs righties. At home vs. righties he's got a .364 wOBA. Away vs. righties he's got a .314 wOBA.

Also considered: Grady Sizemore, Travis Snider, Jay Bruce, Yasiel Puig, Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Beltran.

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