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If you're coming over from basketball - welcome. If you're a lifelong fantasy baseball player, welcome. I want to give a quick heads up about how we are going to do our baseball picks.
Unlike basketball, contextual information matters very little baseball. Guys rarely take days off, and "playing well recently" means almost nothing. Playing time hardly ever changes (unlike in basketball where guys can increase their opportunities by 50% on a coach's whim), and when it does, it's fairly obvious.
So, we're going to be giving picks each day without huge write-ups. The only thing that changes about a player in a given day (for the most part) is the park he's playing in and the pitcher he is facing. Most of the other stuff is noise, unless a player has drastically changed his position in the lineup. For pitchers, all that really matters is who they are facing, which park, and if they've been recently injured.
We cool?
Let's do it.
Tyler Skaggs FanDuel 5400 DraftKings 9900 DraftStreet 10137
The Mets managed to outhit the Marlins and the Mariners vs. right handers last year, but that was it. And they face Skaggs in one of the very best pitching environments in the majors. Skaggs has got strike out stuff, and the Mets are generally horrible, which makes Skaggs my top pitching play of the day.
A.J. Burnett FanDuel 6600 DraftKings 7600 DraftStreet 17708
The Marlins are god awful against righties, and AJ Burnett still has that strike-out stuff. The only thing keeping him out of the top spot is the ballpark, which could allow for some long balls
Yu Darvish FanDuel 9800 DraftKings 12200 DraftStreet 25136
The price is so damned high, but this match-up is simply too good to ignore. If you can save money on hitting today, Darvish has the highest pure point expectation that I've seen this season.
Honorable mentions today for Carlos Carrasco and Tommy Milone - both of whom make fine picks if you are just trying to make the money work.
Buster Posey FanDuel 4000 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 8171
Posey always makes a strong play against mediocre lefties, and while SF isn't the greatest place to hit, it's a generally weak day for catcher value, and I'm fine to lock up Posey for a reasonable game instead of chasing upside elsewhere.
Victor Martinez FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 6837
Victor is great against lefties and righties, and while Cashner has strike-out stuff, AND the park isn't great for hitters, V-mart's value is largely derived from being so damned steady.
Tyler Flowers FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 3603
An upside play, if you want one. Flowers has been plenty good this year, and facing Carrasco in a good hitter's park makes for a very nice matchup. The only thing holding him back is the rest of the White Sox lineups, as counting stats might be hard to come by.
Adam Dunn FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 6150
Dunn is back to his three true outcomes routine, and this match-up with Carrasco could produce all 3. If he goes for a homer, a walk, and a few Ks, you'll thank me. I think that line is totally possible today.
Mike Napoli FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 5875
Napoli has been great so far this year. CC is past his prime. It's a great park to hit. Napoli owns a career .905 OPS against lefties. Need anything else?
Mark Reynolds FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 4646
Liriano could absolutely embarrass Reynolds here, but Reynolds actually has a better than 2:1 K:BB ratio against lefties. It's righties that give him fits.
Dustin Pedroia FanDuel 3700 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 5738
Pedroia owns a career .866 OPS against lefties, and the same caveats that we shared with Napoli apply here. Potential for a monster game.
Neil Walker FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 6093
If you read these picks, you'll already know that Walker is one of the more underrated platoon split guys in the game. He hasn't been great so far this year, but I love him to get things going against the young Peralta.
Kolten Wong FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 4835
I'm a big Samardzija fan, but Wong's lefty stylings could give him trouble - and he still remains underpriced given his well rounded game.
Derek Jeter FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 5757
Was there even a doubt in your mind that the Captain would top this list? He's unplayable against righties, but an incredibly high-value play vs. lefties. Love him vs. Lester here, and he's arguably the top overall positional play of the day.
Erick Aybar FanDuel 2500 DraftKings 3300 DraftStreet 5393
Aybar is pretty much platoon neutral, but Gee is a pretty good match-up for him. The biggest reason he's here, though, is the price. His early season woes are meaningless, and there's no way he should be priced like a back-up.
Xander Bogaerts FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 4904
Bogaerts has been somewhat unspectacular this year, but the bar for Shortstops is never especially high. Facing the aging CC, Bogaerts stands to benefit not only from his platoon advantage and a nice park. As of 10pm on Wednesday he's without an extra base hit this year, but that could change tonight.
Brett Lawrie FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 3400 DraftStreet 5185
Well, we perfectly predicted the first time to play Lawrie, and the system loves him again tonight. Young hitters seem to be particularly sensitive to pitcher match-up, and I have no reason to believe that Tillman will overwhelmed Lawrie and his preference for right handed pitching in this one.
Aramis Ramirez FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 7284
Pedro Alvarez
The price is climbing on Alvarez, but it's justified - the guy can straight up crush righties, and has been doing so recently. Love pairing him with Walker.
It's a weird night for 3b, and I can't say I love picking Aramis against Liriano, but hear me out. Ramirez has been phenomenal against lefties for his career - with a near .900 OPS and a ~12% strike out rate. The Brewers have some other guys that can hit lefties as well, so Ramirez might have more opportunity here than at first blush.
Martin Prado FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 5941
Another guy I'm lukewarm on, but the guy can hit a lefty, and bats in the middle of the lineup when the D-backs face lefties. It's also a nice park to hit in.
Bryce Harper FanDuel 3700 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 6985
I'm not sold on Teheran, and neither is the system, liking Harper as the top overall play by a pretty decent margin. Harper gets a nice boost from facing righties.
Ryan Braun FanDuel 4500 DraftKings 5800 DraftStreet 9443
I guess I'm all in on a Brewers' stack today. This will really test the system, as it believes the Brew Crew can still post decent lines against Liriano and his wicked stuff. Recommending Braun worked against Cliff Lee, and I suppose this really isn't so different.
Travis Snider FanDuel 2300 DraftKings 2900 DraftStreet 3840
Dirt cheap, and mashing recently, the system loves Snider against Peralta without even knowing that he's homered in his last two games.
Alfonso Soriano FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 5439
Soriano has been downright spunky since his opening season funk - which goes to show for the 193813013th time that moving prices based on the first few games of the season is a huge money making opportunity for us. Even if the rest of the Yankees (minus Jeter) are non-plussed at facing lefties, Soriano is quite the notable exception, with an .869 OPS against them for his career.
Shin-Soo Choo FanDuel 3800 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 8096
Any time I can take an incredibly sophisticated hitter like Choo and face him off against a patsy like Feldman, I'm taking full advantage. Feldman's always been mediocre, and his 1:1 K:BB ratio for the year has a big game from Choo written all over it.
Hunter Pence FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 5382
Love pairing the lefty masher with Posey, and again, I'm not dissuaded by the park here. AT&T Park (or whatever they call it these days) is actually MUCH more harmful to lefties than righties, and Pence stands to have a good game here.
Nick Markakis FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 5645
The price is creeping down on Markakis, and I think it's just because his game isn't very sexy anymore. Taking advantage of his solid approach vs. the righty McGowan could reap some nice, steady rewards tomorrow. Not a huge upside play, but ought to be pretty safe.
Denard Span makes a nice play alongside Harper - decent stack opportunity there.
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