Well we are definitely nearing the finish line. It's been good hanging with you guys and gals over the course of the season. We've had our ups and bigger ups. No downs around here. Today is the last big Friday and FanDuel is running their 1.2 million DFBBC. It's a huge day and the amount of games are insane. Great day to get some money in. Because of the amount of games, there will undoubtedly be a number of scratches/punts/considerations that develop over the course of the day. Things will change. Below are what our system believes are solid plays. But get prepared to make changes.
Be sure to sign up for a free 3-day trial to access the NBA system and spreadsheets that help produce our picks. And give a follow on Twitter @dailyfantasysr. Let's get to the picks.
Point guard is actually pretty weak today. I'm not loving any of these plays too terribly much, but they show up at the top of our list. You'll want to check in on guys like Rondo and IT2 over the course of the day because if they sit dudes like Bayless and McCallum become a lot more attractive.
Goran Dragic - FanDuel $7,500 DraftKings $7,800 DraftStreet $14,618
Feels real weird putting him at the top of the list. He's been anything but awesome over the last couple of games. His price has dropped and the Blazers have been letting up more scoring than average to opposing point guards. Again, PG is weird and you'll be waiting to hear about some injury news.
Kyrie Irving - FanDuel $8,000 DraftKings $7,900 DraftStreet $15,330
Didn't miss a single beat from his arm injury. He played under thirty minutes in his first game back and shot 7/8 from the field, showing no worse for wear. Pretty encouraging and tonight he'll square up against the Hawks who don't worry too much about opposing point guards. Risky still, but on a big tournament night Kyrie has tremendous upside.
Shaun Livingston - FanDuel $4,700 DraftKings $4,400
Minutes have dipped over the last couple, but some of that has been because of foul trouble. I really like his chances of exceeding value against a Detroit team that appears to hate playing basketball, and really hates defending point guards. He will be a low percentage start on such a big day, but there is some contrarian maneuvering that could have you profiting.
Mario Chalmers - FanDuel $5,000 DraftKings $4,300 DraftStreet $9,979
Like him a lot more if D-Wade sits again. If so, the Chalmers will see a lot more run in the offense. Probably more of a double up play except on DraftKings where he's nearing punt prices for some reason.
Reggie Jackson - FanDuel $6,000 DraftKings $5,200 DraftStreet $10,570
I think Westbrook is going to sit making Jackson a great play at reduced prices. Check status updates before game time.
And just a reminder: Check on Rajon Rondo before gametime. If he can't go, Bayless could make a greaat plug against the Sixers who actually have been better lately.
Klay Thompson - FanDuel $6,000 DraftKings $6,200 DraftStreet $11,423
He needs a high volume game to pay and this could be the one. The Kings are about as bad as it gets against shooting guards. Over the last two weeks they've let up 37% more scoring that league average to the position. It's like they play a whole game, and then let the opposing shooting guard play ten or so more minutes with no one else on the court. Think he'll be off radars at these prices, but there is upside.
Monta Ellis - FanDuel $7,400 DraftKings $7,800 DraftStreet $14,472
Took us this long to get to someone playing against the Lakers. Feels weird right? Monta will be a popular cash game play today with good reason. I think he's going to put up a bunch of points. Last time they played he went 16/9 and 5 steals while also getting up 18 shots. Play him.
James Harden - FanDuel $9,700 DraftKings $10,000 DraftStreet $18,963
Like him more if Dwight doesn't play but either way, Revenge Game!
Tyreke Evans - FanDuel $7,900 DraftKings $7,600 DraftStreet $14,738
Like Harden, want to see Reke go without Brow. Price has dropped a bit, back down to a place where he can hit crazy value if he's the one doing everything in the offense. I wouldn't roll him in double ups because who the fuck knows with this guy, but the upside is there.
Ben McLemore - FanDuel $3,700 DraftKings $4,000 DraftStreet $7,289
Benefits from IT2 being out of the lineup for sure as he's been getting more consistent shooting opportunities. The tag is still real low for the upside he can bring.
Dion Waiters - FanDuel $6,600 DraftKings $6,800 DraftStreet $11,365
Thought he would suffer a bit more with Kyrie back and honestly, I think he will once Irving gets back to full minutes. I guess the Cavs still have a slight chance at the playoffs (I don't study that stuff too much) meaning Kyrie could see a full complment tonight. If so, that diminishes Waiters' value.
LeBron James - FanDuel $10,000 DraftKings $10,300 DraftStreet $21,343
The top big money play tonight. This game against Minnesota should be fast-paced and high scoring. Lebron will be in every part of it. That he's the 6th most expensive guy on FanDuel seems crazy to me. I will have a lot of shares of this guy tonight and he should be a real high percentage start in cash games. You don't even want to know how bad the TWolves have been against SFs lately.
Shawn Marion - FanDuel $5,200 DraftKings $5,200 DraftStreet $10,592
How's that for a drop off in talent? The Matrix is someone I've had a love/hate relationship with the season. It's kind of like the relationship my daughter has with her stuffed animals. Sometimes she's snuggling them in bed. Other times she's chucking them off the deck and saying "they died". So it goes with with Marion. But it's the Lakers and you have to fire him off in a couple of places. And yes my analysis of his value involved me describing stuffed animals. Shit's a pro move right there.
DeMarre Carroll - FanDuel $5,600 DraftKings $4,400 DraftStreet $10,536
Been relatively quiet lately but I' still expect big things from the guy. Carroll has upside at these prices, especially on DraftKings where he's been underpriced nearly all season. The Cavs aren't great on defense in general and are particularly bad against small forwards. Carroll makes a nice off board play today.
Paul Pierce - FanDuel $5,400 DraftKings $5,700 DraftStreet $10,665
You'd feel odd putting him into some lineups today right? Don't be. He has tremendous upside in the right spot and this is one of those times. Detroit is below average across the board so it really doesn't matter what position we label Pierce with. He will see more scoring opportunities tonight and that's where a majority of his value lies. When he's pouring it on he crushes these prices.
Jeff Green - DraftStreet $10,004
The Celts are really underrepresented tonight against the Sixers mostly because their guys chop up the minutes. Green isn't a great play everywhere, but you can roll him here.
Dirk Nowitzki - FanDuel $7,700 DraftKings $8,200 DraftStreet $17,069
Again, you want to target the Lakers on a night in which you'll most likely need a ton of points to win. Dirk. Dirk. Dirk. His tag on FanDuel is almost a must play considering both the safety and the upside. A little less clear the other places, but still a top play. The revolving door of Laker big men won't have an answer for him.
Jordan Hill - FanDuel $5,200 DraftKings $5,200 DraftStreet $12,235
This is assuming Pau is still dizzy and Kaman's leg still hurts. Hill is one of the craziest DFS stories on the season (not named Dieng). When he gets a ton of minutes he basically just destroys his salary. And then the next game he won't play. It's nuts. I think the minutes are here tonight and he exceeds value, even on DraftStreet where the price has really climbed.
LaMarcus Aldridge - FanDuel $9,400 DraftKings $9,000 DraftStreet $19,317
Has to be licking his chops for a matchup with the Suns. He put up 24 the last time they played, though the rebounding was down considerably. I'm not sweating that small sample size. Don't think a ton of people will be on him tonight with the other big names going.
Derrick Favors - FanDuel $6,700 DraftKings $7,100 DraftStreet $13,909
A guy the can screw with your sanity but has a great matchup against New Orleans. Did you see what Faried did to them the other night. I know that was without Davis, but New Orleans isn't good against PFs even with Brow around.
Jared Sullinger - FanDuel $6,500 DraftKings $6,100 DraftStreet $11,983
You need to have a piece of guys playing against the Sixers. GPP play only.
Zach Randolph - FanDuel $7,100 DraftKings $7,500 DraftStreet $14,245
Denver is one of the worst teams in the league against PFs. Z-Bo might be declining but this is still a nice matchup.
Center is crazy weak tonight. Here's to hoping there are some injury-induced options.
Marc Gasol - FanDuel $7,300 DraftKings $7,200 DraftStreet $13,788
Denver gets crushed by centers on the glass. Just crushed. They've allowed 22% more rebounding than league average to opposing big men over the last couple of weeks. It makes sense. They only really have Mozgov as a "legit" big man.
Omer Asik - FanDuel $4,600 DraftKings $4,900
If Dwight doesn't play you need to roll him on both these sites.
Gorgui Dieng - Gorgui Dieng - FanDuel $6,100 DraftKings $6,400 DraftStreet $12,504
If Pekovic doesn't play, well we've seen what this guy can do. He becomes a Hall of Famer.
Joakim Noah - DraftKings $8,700 DraftStreet $18,099
Sick low price on DraftKings today for one of the best centers in the league.
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