Just an enormous Friday in the NBA. So many games going it seems like the NBA may have subcontracted out some mid major conference teams just to fill in the gaps in the schedule. Twelve games! That's a lot to sift through. Have no fear. We've got you covered.
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Ricky Rubio - FanDuel $7,000 DraftKings $7,400 DraftStreet $15,111
Rubio is a top play at point guard because of the matchup against the Lakers. He'll be a big percentage play even with the huge slate because it's going to be damn tough to pass on the upside if this game stays close. It'll be up and down and point guards crush the Lakers. Look at Brandon Knight last night (and what every other point guard has done this season).
Deron Williams - FanDuel $7,200 DraftKings $7,400 DraftStreet $14,039
The big change for D-Will of late? He's shooting much more. That extra volume has him a top scoring point guard and tonight he pulls a Cleveland team that over the season has been bad against opposing point guards. One thing to keep in mind though is that over the last two weeks (much of that without Kyrie) they've gotten better, allowing 16% less scoring that league average. Granted that stretch featured a bunch of games against teams with PGs who aren't big scorers. Liking this play a lot tonight.
Shaun Livingston - DraftKings $4,300
Still so cheap here and should be matched up with Waiters.
Mario Chalmers - FanDuel $5,200 DraftStreet $9,568
Heat will be down at least Ray Allen and D-Wade is always a question mark. Detroit blows against point guards and Chalmers has fairly cheap salaries in these two places.
Kevin Martin - FanDuel $5,800 DraftKings $5,700 DraftStreet $9,744
Another guy who should be a heavy start today because of the opponent and the fact that SG is sparse. He needs to score to hit value and this is the perfect spot to do it, against a Laker teams that is well below average against shooting guards. Over the season they've allowed 10% more scoring than league average to the position. And though Martin doesn't do much else in the box score, he could see an extra couple of rebounds and assists because of the pace.
Joe Johnson - FanDuel $6,100 DraftKings $6,000 DraftStreet $11,661
As stated before, SG is a problem area tonight and I don't love many of the other choices. Johnson has been serviceable if unspectacular at these prices and has a bit of upside on the right night. Cleveland's been allowing a bit more scoring than average to shooting guards (although the Nets have weird rotations with Livingston, Pierce and JJ all on the court together.). I don't mind Johnson at all tonight.
Jodie Meeks - FanDuel $5,900 DraftKings $5,200 DraftStreet $10,796
He's fine I guess. The Lakers are weird and it's difficult to predict who'll have the hot hand.
Tyreke Evans - DraftKings $7,700
Price is way up everywhere else but here.
LeBron James - FanDuel $10,400 DraftKings $10,100 DraftStreet $22,512
Although I'll probably pay for Love tonight, Lebron makes it at least an interesting discussion and a decent play against the Pistons. Detroit allows more than league average scoring and assists to opposing small forwards. I like him especially if a number of punts crop up at the last moment, in an effort to get both he and Love into lineups which could be possible down the stretch.
Corey Brewer - FanDuel $4,600 DraftKings $4,500 DraftStreet $8,048
Been getting his shot up more lately and that's what you need from Brewer to pay these prices. There's no better opponent (except maybe Philly) to have a chance to shoot more than the Lakers. Brewer's price is depressed and I think he makes a great play just on the outside of the punt range.
Paul Pierce - FanDuel $5,400 DraftStreet $9,970
System likes him a lot. I don't like that I've recommended so many Nets so far. Maybe try to sneak him in as a low percentage start in a tournament because he can post big lines. But is far from safe.
Kawhi Leonard - FanDuel $6,600 DraftKings $6,500
Leonard almost always gets his 30+ minutes and that's all you can ask from with a guy who's coached by Greg Popovich. Leonard should hit value tonight against a quick Denver team.
Paul George - FanDuel $8,100 DraftKings $8,600 DraftStreet $15,323
PG makes an interesting play tonight with so many other big names on the board. It'll be easy to overlook him. But Washington is a good opponent for opposing small forwards and George has put up significantly more shots in the last two games. If you want to get away from the top tier dudes and go some midrange value, he makes a strong play.
Kevin Love - FanDuel $11,200 DraftKings $11,100 DraftStreet $21,379
The top big money guy on the board tonight because of the Lakers and that's really all I need to say about that. Love is great. I really don't know what else to say. Don't let the low scoring night from Wednesday hold you back.
Anthony Davis - FanDuel $10,900 DraftKings $10,100 DraftStreet $22,446
He's a couple of games removed from his thirty point affairs, but is still playing at such a high level that I really can't leave him off the list. System isn't over the moon in this spot against a Utah team that allows 5% less rebound than league average to opposing PFs. But they do allow more scoring. The price might be right at the breaking point.
Tim Duncan - FanDuel $7,900 DraftKings $7,800
Duncan, along with Paul George, fall into that midrange value tonight that you can really turn into profit. He's rolling against a Denver team that's among the worst in the league against opposing power forwards, allowing 12% more scoring than league average. Duncan contributed to that two nights ago with a 29/13/5 line that won some people a bunch of money in big tournaments on Wednesday.
Jordan Hill - FanDuel $4,900 DraftKings $4,300
As long as he's starting, these prices are great. He put up a monster last night, which with any other team would mean he'd be a lock for the minutes. The Lakers aren't just any other team. They fuck around with everything always.
Greg Monroe - FanDuel $7,800 DraftKings $7,400 DraftStreet $14,403
Won't be on many radars but has a good matchup against a small Heat team.
Gorgui Dieng - FanDuel $5,300 DraftKings
As long as Pekovic sits again, Dieng gets a match-up like you read about, AND he's been paying 7x on this price as is. Just love him against the Lakers, who have allowed a whopping 16% more FPs to opposing centers than league average this season.
Timofey Mozgov - FanDuel $4,400 DraftKings $4,400 DraftStreet $9,532
Please tell me you played Mozgov after we recommended him last time around. Please? Mozgov has been a pretty decent play at these prices on 20 minutes a game, and now that he's playing 30+, he's a downright no-brainer. And he just put up 7x pts/$ against this very same team. What else can I say? Editor's note: Mozgov has been scratched from tonight's game
Tiago Splitter - FanDuel $5,400 DraftKings $5,000 DraftStreet $10,993
Splitter didn't crush it against Denver his last time out, but the minutes are still there, and I'm a believer. Denver has given up 6% more FPs than league average against opposing Centers, and now that you can forecast Splitter for 30 mins a game, he too becomes a very attractive play.
Joakim Noah - FanDuel $9,400 DraftKings $8,700 DraftStreet $18,303
Noah's the guy you take tonight if you find yourself wanting safety for big money in the Center department. Not loving him for a ton of upside, but Portland's been playing small recently, and allowing 6% more FPs to opposing centers than league average in their last 15 games. This has the trappings of a 45+ FPs performance for the league's most lovable/intolerable player.
DeMarcus Cousins - FanDuel $9,900 DraftKings $10,000
The only thing holding Boogie back here is the blowout potential. Cousins has been embarrassing cats recently, and OKC just doesn't have anyone who can stand up to his size and athleticism down low. If he gets shut down tonight, it's going to be because the Thunder's electric offense blows Sac-town off the court, not because Boogie doesn't get his on the boards and the offensive end.
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