With HoopDreams off for the night, MisterMarch is weighing in with today's picks.
A big old slate in the NBA tonight that features two of the league's worst defenses. You can never go wrong picking against the Lakers or the Sixers, but we've got a bunch of picks that will help you go against the grain as well. Enjoy!
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Damian Lillard - FanDuel $7,900 DraftKings $8,200 DraftStreet $17,013
Lillard has been fantastic (understatement) since Aldridge's injury, and his usage rate leaves me feeling great as he takes on a Brooklyn team that’s been considerably worse against opposing PGs as Deron Williams has shouldered more of the defensive load. I’m figuring he’ll continue his run of 40+ FPs games, with room for more built in as well.
Chris Paul - FanDuel $8,900 DraftKings $10,100 DraftStreet $19,455
CP3 has been back in business recently, going for 45+ FPs in 3 consecutive games. Even if he draws Patrick Beverly, I’m not sweating this matchup at all. I’m expecting another business like outing, even if there isn’t a ton of upside built in at this price tag.
Mike Conley - FanDuel $7,400 DraftKings $6,900 DraftStreet $13,543
Mike Conley has been pretty decent as he’s shaken the rust off in his return from injury. I’m expecting a break-out game against the woeful Lakers potpourri for Conley, whose price hasn’t reached the levels it was before his injury sidelined him. Something like 40 FPs is looking totally within reason.
Kirk Hinrich - FanDuel $4,100 DraftKings $4,500 DraftStreet $8,936
Hinrich is a steady source of fantasy production on these prices, with a floor of 4.5x. Love him against Curry and the Warriors, who are below average against PGs.
Jameer Nelson - FanDuel $5,500 DraftKings $6,000 DraftStreet $10,107
A hot matchup for Jameer Nelson, who has more upside than you might think against the pathetic Sixers. He really isn’t a double up play, as he is fairly up and down recently… but it’s tough to ignore him against a team who could give up 40 FPs to Justin Bieber at the PG position.
Brian Roberts - FanDuel $5,100 DraftKings $4,600 DraftStreet $8,612
B-rob remains a steady option against the “defense” of Jose Calderon and Monta Ellis. I kid, Mavs fans. Dallas actually is league average against opposing PGs, but Roberts’ price continues to not reflect the 30 minutes he puts in every game. Love this matchup for both upside and safety – I’d be surprised with anything less than 20 FPs, and I’m counting on 27-30 in my leagues.
Trey Burke - FanDuel $5,900
Fanduel’s snail-like price updating process leaves Burke a nice option against the Suns. Penciling him in for 30-35 FPs.
Derek Fisher - DraftStreet $4,775
Joke of a price for Fisher, who has been squashing this price for weeks on a site that’s usually really diligent about staying on top of things like this. Oh well – Draftstreet’s loss is your gain – ride this Fisher price while it still exists… especially in a matchup against Cleveland that could easily get out of hand early.
*Additional note about Deron Williams – I’m not going overboard after a terrific game against the Lakers. Other than that, he was paying barely 4x on this price recently. Letting other people hop on the Dwill bandwagon, while I look elsewhere.
James Harden - FanDuel $9,200 DraftKings $9,900 DraftStreet $20,030
Harden got it going against the Lakers a few games ago, and hasn’t cooled off since. I mean he put up 30 points in the FIRST HALF last night on his way to 43/2/8line. Love this matchup against the Clips – which should be a close game that features lots of scoring. Getting steep everywhere except FanDuel but I think you can go for it.
Marco Belinelli - FanDuel $4,500 DraftKings $4,900 DraftStreet $8,943
Belinelli has been paying this price without even considering the ramifications for people like me, who root tooth and nail against him. Ginobili’s return hasn’t hurt Belinelli or Green, and I imagine this will continue against the Pistons, much to my chagrin.
Victor Oladipo - FanDuel $6,800 DraftKings $6,200 DraftStreet $12,913
Since Afflalo's injury Oladipo has been getting great run and bounced back last night. He is still a bargain across the industry if he's jacking up 15-20 shots a game with Arron out of the lineup.
Kent Bazemore - FanDuel $3,600 DraftKings $3,400 DraftStreet $6,355
Bazemore is a high energy guy playing in D’Antoni’s system, or at least that’s what I gather from reading about him online. I literally couldn’t pick him out of a lineup if you paid me. That being said, you simply can not complain with 30 minutes per game in the Lakers’ up-tempo offense, especially for these prices. Take Bazemore for both safety and considerable upside.
Gerald Green - FanDuel $5,900 DraftKings $5,900 DraftStreet $10,777
A few of Green’s off nights have his price remaining far below his true value. Considerable safety against a lousy Utah team, with a little bit of upside built in as well. Quintessential double-up play.
Vince Carter - FanDuel $5,200 DraftKings $5,400 DraftStreet $10,277
Vinsanity has been fantastic recently, scoring 33+FPs in his last 2 games, and only missing 20 FPs in 1 of his last 10. He’s flexing upside at this price, and it sure looks like he’s gaining more trust even as Marion loses it. I’m riding the Vinsanity train until he quits on his team to get traded to another obscure team elsewhere. Wait, what year is this?
Jamal Crawford - FanDuel $7,300 DraftKings $6,600 DraftStreet $13,326
It’s easy to think of Crawford as an upside play, but the truth is, when the minutes are there, he’s as safe as he comes. He puts the ball in the air, and stays out on the court. Love him in this matchup against the Rockets.
Jimmy Butler OR Tony Snell, depending who’s playing.
Jimmy Butler - FanDuel $6,300 DraftKings $5,700 DraftStreet $11,565 OR
Tony Snell - FanDuel $3,600 DraftKings $3,400 DraftStreet $5,925
Snell or Butler both make a nice play against Golden State (who is actually better against SGs than you might expect). Either way, both are attractively priced – so keep an eye on this situation as it develops near game time.
P.J. Tucker - FanDuel $5,500 DraftKings $5,000 DraftStreet $9,750
Tucker is a guy who was coming off a couple of down games before last night. He shouldn't look as scary… because when he gets going, he plays more like a $7,000 guy than a $5,000 guy. He gets a slightly better than average matchup with Utah, and I expect him to take advantage of it for 30+ FPs.
Kevin Durant - FanDuel $12,000 DraftKings $11,300 DraftStreet $22,770
Durant keeps getting more expensive, but what are you supposed to do? Locking up 5x production with 12k of your Fanduel Salary is an incredibly firm foundation for the rest of your roster. It’s hard to say there’s any upside at all on this number – but getting 12k of your roster locked up with safe production is nothing to sneeze at. The big worry here is a blowout, which ironically means Durant feels more like a GPP play to me, in spite of his relative safety.
Kyle Singler - FanDuel $4,200 DraftKings $4,200 DraftStreet $7,877
Not sure what the daily fantasy basketball industry has against Singler, but he doesn’t seem to mind. He goes out there for 40 minutes a game, scores high teens points, grabs a few boards, dishes a few assists, and throws in a few hustle stats as well. Love him at this price, even if there is blowout risk against the Spurs.
Jeremy Evans - FanDuel $4,000 DraftKings $3,600 DraftStreet $6,707
Jermey Evans is simply a good player, who bangs his way to 20 FPs basically every game. His floor is 5x his salary (on FD), and there is upside for considerably more if the game gets out of hand. Unsexy pick who could free up salary for a big $ guy elsewhere.
Chandler Parsons - FanDuel $7,200 DraftKings $7,400 DraftStreet $14,704
Parsons takes on a Clippers team that is league average against the SF position, but I specifically like his perimeter game against a Clips team that feels a little more comfortable defending the rim. Not expecting an explosive performance, but he’s the safest SF on the form for double-ups.
Andre Iguodala - FanDuel $5,600 DraftKings $6,000 DraftStreet $12,528
Iggy was taking off before an off night against the Pistons. Looks like an anomaly to me, and I’m feeling him for 25+ FPs against the Bulls. Going to be playing Iggy until his salary comes up into the $6,000-$6,200 range where it belongs.
Richard Jefferson - FanDuel $3,700 DraftKings $3,800 DraftStreet $5,659
Richard Jefferson’s price remains punt-looking even as he plays 30 minutes per night. It’s awfully tough to go too wrong on this salary, and with a lack of huge upside from the mid-high range SFs tonight, I’m fine going super cheap and sliding Jefferson into one of my 2 SF spots, and paying for high-upside production elsewhere.
Andrei Kirilenko - FanDuel $3,900 DraftKings $3,800
Kirilenko has been balling in additional minutes recently, doing a little bit of everything – and contributing a TON on defense. There’s no reason to believe these minutes or the performance are a fluke, so ride the Kirilenko hot streak until the minutes go away. Not a double-up play, per se, but the upside for GPPs is undeniable.
DeMarre Carroll - DraftKings $4,200
Stupid low price.
Tobias Harris - FanDuel $6,700 DraftKings $6,600 DraftStreet $14,872
Except for last night, Tobias Harris has been back to his early season form recently, and gets the very best matchup in all of the land against the 76ers. They’ve given up a staggering FORTY PERCENT more points to opposing Power Forwards recently, and Harris figures to see a lot of that boost in his matchup here. Hard to imagine going in a different direction in my PF1 slot unless I’m punting elsewhere and just need to spend the dough.
Thaddeus Young - FanDuel $7,800 DraftKings $7,600 DraftStreet $17,345
With all of his friends leaving town, Thaddeus Young has positively gone off in his last two outing. Price has climbed on DraftStreet but is still in range. On the other two sites it's a positive steal. Speaking of, I don’t expect him to keep getting 6 and 7 steals per night – but even with 1 steal in each of those games, TY would be averaging more than 40 FPs per game in his last 2 outings.
Tristan Thompson - FanDuel $5,800 DraftKings $6,300 DraftStreet $11,678
For all of the praise Ibaka gets on the defensive end, the Thunder are merely league average against opposing PFs. I can’t give Thompson the nod in double up formats (especially with comparable prices for Harris), but there are plenty of scenarios where Thompson has a wonderful game at this low price point.
Brandon Bass - FanDuel $4,500 DraftKings $4,900 DraftStreet $10,770
Bass has been getting more consistent minutes recently with Sullinger’s concussion issues, and it’s another clear case of the price not following the opportunity and the production. If I spend my money elsewhere, I’ll be slappin’ the Bass at PF (sorry), mon.
Greg Monroe - FanDuel $7,000 DraftKings $7,500 DraftStreet $14,320
Monroe has been balling out of control recently – playing 40 minutes per night, and making the most of his increased opportunity. The Spurs are slightly above league average when it comes to allowing FPs to opposing PFs, but it won’t matter if Monroe stays on the court for all but 8 minutes of the game again. Love him for safety’s sake, and I’m not ruling out real upside as well – at least until the sites recognize his new playing time situation.
Markieff Morris - FanDuel $5,900 DraftKings $5,800
I may never play Markieff Morris in another god damned double-up as long as I live, but the upside is just undeniable. Assuming that the rest of the daily fantasy sports world has been driven as crazy by him as I have, he remains an unpopular play in all formats. He’s a great separation play with considerable upside that I’ll be avoiding for personal sanity reasons only.
Blake Griffin - FanDuel $9,800 DraftKings $9,800
The shine is off Blake a little bit after a couple of down games, but I’m loving him for a bounceback against the Rockets. His explosiveness and athleticism makes him a terrible matchup for anyone on the Rockets, and I’m liking him for 45-50 FPs easily.
Taj Gibson - DraftStreet $10,950
Even in non-starter minutes, Gibson is putting up double doubles. He’s a little priced out of the equation on FanDuel (due to his run as a starter), but remains favorably priced on DS.
Nikola Vucevic - FanDuel $7,000 DraftKings $7,400 DraftStreet $14,912
Not a whole lot to say here other than it’s free upside on a great price. While he’s a little more expensive on Draftstreet, Vucevic faces a Sixers team that has been perilously bad against opposing Centers. Looking for handfuls of boards, blocks, buckets, and anything else that is good that starts with the letter B.
Dwight Howard - FanDuel $9,300 DraftKings $9,700 DraftStreet $19,700
Howard draws a favorable matchup against a Clips defense that is more sizzle than steak. His around the rim game isn’t a terrific matchup for Jordan, who isn’t as good a defender against players like Howard as he is against players who face the basket. Howard’s performance has returned to his former peak levels, but his price hasn’t. I’m buying.
Joakim Noah - FanDuel $9,100 DraftKings $8,600 DraftStreet $19,112
Noah has turned into one of the game’s elite fantasy Centers, and his hustle-based game should be too much for the perpetually banged up Bogut to handle. Bogut was seen grabbing at his shoulder all throughout his foul-out performance on Monday, and I’m suspecting that continues in what will be a big night for Noah.
Kelly Olynyk - FanDuel $3,700 DraftStreet $7,843
Kelly Olynyk (if Sullinger is out) – Olynyk stands the most to gain from Sullinger’s injury – even more than Brandon Bass. Olynyk has shown some serious board/block potential earlier this year, and I won’t be surprised at all if he puts up 25-30 FPs on bargain basement salaries. If Sullinger is out, he’s safe with upside.
Robin Lopez - FanDuel $6,400 DraftKings $5,900 DraftStreet $13,340
Lopez had an off shooting night his last time out, but he was crushing before then, and still put up an incredible amount of volume (19 shots!). Loving him for a bounceback game against a Brooklyn team that doesn’t entirely know what it’s doing against opposing big men with Robin’s better half continuing to be sidelined.
DeAndre Jordan - DraftKings $7,400 DraftStreet $15,980
The prices on DraftKings and Draftstreet simply don't account for Jordan’s safety and reliable production – and he has a nice matchup for his skillset against Howard, since Jordan doesn’t rely on point scoring to get his numbers.
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