Man it's good to have the NBA back. Games all night. Get to ignore your family. Lebron continuing to crush. Telling your wife you're "working" while staring at box scores. It's all good again. Bunch of games on the docket tonight and fair warning, the values are a little spread out. I tried to lay it out as clearly as possible.
As we said yesterday, we've got some big things happening around here at DFSR. Besides giving you the daily picks, we've also opened up our new lineup construction tool for FanDuel lineups and DraftStreet lineups. Check it out and use it this week. Leave us some comments on how we can improve and tweak the model. We are excited about bringing the best plays to you each night. On to today's plays.
Point guard is a little iffy tonight. You are going to see some names here that are a bit all over the board. That's fine. I think you'll end up going cheap here and spending dough in other places.
Damian Lillard FD $7,500 DK $8,000 DS $14,771
Fresh off an All-Star Weekend that saw him competing in everything possible, Lillard is one guy I think I'd pony up on. More on FanDuel and DraftStreet than DraftKings, though the latter is some value too. He gets a nice matchup against the Parker-less Spurs (though point of fairness, the Spurs haven't been great on d with Parker on the court) and Lillard should see plenty of looks.
Cory Joseph FD $3,700 DK $3,900 DS $9,744
Assuming he's starting again for Parker, I think he makes a nice play on FanDuel and DraftKings. Even DraftStreet hasn't caught up yet as they set their prices for today in advance of their usual schedule. Portland's PACE is such that opposing point guards see plenty of volume and opportunity in a game, averaging about 10% more scoring and rebounding in a given game.
Jameer Nelson FD $5,500 DK $5,600 DS $8,823
Nice midrange salaries, but especially tempting on DraftStreet where he continues to be underpriced. Anytime you can get a starting PG, who sees 30+ minutes for under 9K, the opportunity is almost too tough to pass up. Nelson doesn't exactly light the world on fire but these prices are solid against the Cavs who play little to no defense against point guards.
Patrick Beverley FD $5,200 DK $5,200 DS $9,410
Getting a little riskier here as Beverley dealt with some injuries prior to the All-Star break. Honestly, I wouldn't even put him up here if the yellow and purple of the Lakers weren't going to be standing across from him during this game. But so goes the plight of LA, as they let up tons and tons of points to the other team.
John Wall DS $15,972
The price and the name are going to mean he'll be a heavy start today on DraftStreet. Atlanta's recent performance against PGs with Teague back means Wall should have plenty of looks. This is a strong, strong play here.
Trey Burke DS $8,436
Like Nelson, burke gets a look here because of the pricetag and the minutes. Our system is still pulling a little too much from the early season on this play, but is it wrong for me to believe he can turn it around?
Get ready to go through the rollercoaster of this section. I tried to section it off in the clearest terms to know which sites to play to play which guys. Hope you can follow.
James Harden FD $8,600 DK $9,200 DS $17,112
Biggest question here is whether the Lakers can hang enough for Harden to pay off. It could be close. There's no doubt he'll see plenty of looks and he has no problem taking them. Will he be in the game long enough? I like his chances there. The Lakers are bad for sure, but they've shown a pluckiness in games that keeps them hanging around long enough. Not always, but they can do it. Right? I hope so because in their two meetings this year Harden is averaging a 37/7/5 line.
Steve Blake FD $6,400 DK $6,100 DS $11,454
Speaking of the Lakers, Blake is a nice play here because he should see a wealth of minutes. He was dealing with some arm issues before the break and in watching the game against OKC it was clear he didn't feel completely comfortable shooting. Here's to hoping the extended break did him well because he could crush these prices with a high volume game.
Gerald Henderson DS $8,516
Arron Afflalo DS $9,760
Both of these guys kind of fall into the same category. They have advantageous match-ups against weak defensive squads and both need to get hot scoring to really pay off. Henderson seems a bit safer for me with the salary. But both rate out fairly high.
Lance Stephenson DK $6,500 DS $12,991
Remains significantly underpriced on both of these sites. He should be in his glory getting up and down the court against the T-Wolves who will have no real defensive answer for his style of play.
Marco Belinelli FD $4,200 DK $4,300
As long as he is drawing starter minutes at these prices you need to have him in your lineups, especially on FD.
Gordon Hayward FD $7,200
Really love Hayward on FD tonight. His price on the other sites has outstripped his usefulness, but not here. Even on horrific shooting nights he's been able to catch his expectation because he is a jack of all trades on the court. Brooklyn isn't the world's best matchup and this thing will be a snoozer from a fan point of view. But you can set Hayward in your lineup and watch another game.
Typically a minefield of punts, Lebrons/Durants, or mediocrity, tonight small forward has a bunch of interesting names. Who knew? A theme of tonight is paying attention to whom to play where.
Chandler Parsons FD $7,000 DK $7,000 DS $13,956
Like many of his teammates tonight, Parsons is getting the old Laker bump. It does wonders for a guy's resume. I wonder if players consider this before hitting the floor. Like does Chandler think, "I'm usually pretty good, but tonight I might see 10-15% more scoring and rebounding than usual because that's what the Lakers have been letting up this year to small forwards, the position that I play." And that my friends is how you give a pick using inner dialogue.
Shawne Williams FD $3,800 DK $3,700 DS $8,140
A few weeks ago wasn't on the team. Now is starting and getting like 30 plus minutes a night. The LA Lakers everyone! Been making the most of his run though, getting up shots, snagging some boards. Who knows what the future holds. He could be cut by Thursday. But he's a value right now.
Wesley Johnson FD $5,200 DK $5,100 DS $9,413
Another guy seeing huge minutes. His run hasn't been as productive of late, mostly because for a short stretch he ran insanely hot with blocks and steals. Those two categories won't be fillers for Johnson, but his minutes dictate a higher expectation than what he showed going into the break. His price has climbed on FD and DK, but I think you can still make a case there. I like his price a bit more on DraftStreet.
Jeff Green FD $6,400 DK $6,700 DS $11,297
While a deal on FD and DS I think you can make the case across the board. On those first two sites, Green is a top SF option on the day. When his shot is falling he will cash plenty of leagues for you. When it's not you want to kill yourself, but so goes the Jeff Green play.
Paul George FD DS $13,946
Luol Deng DS $10,274
Two fantastic prices here for higher end guys. Following both of their performances last night (Deng would have hit value had the game not been a blowout, and George was awesome) I expect to see both as large percentage plays here tonight. George is pretty much a must start on DraftStreet at that price.
Draymond Green FD $3,500 DK $3,900
Has been playing big minutes with the Warrior big men banged up. It looks like Bogut and Jermaine O'Neal will be out tonight. If that's the case Green is your perfect kind of punt.
Andre Iguodala FD $5,100
Not as sexy as Draymond but still stands to benefit from a Bogut absence. Iggy can crush this price on the right night. I actually don't mind the idea of playing he and Draymond together in some tournaments and hoping the Kings can keep it close.
Tyreke Evans DK $5,300
Super cheap if you think he gets a full run. Strictly a tournament play.
Weaker field here tonight and again the values are a bit spread out.
Nene Hilario FD $6,900 DK $6,400 DS $13,745
Nene will be a lot of places for me tonight. This is because Atlanta has been getting bushwhacked against opposing power forwards. They've been letting up 30% more scoring to the position in the short term. And David West was well on his way last night, but played less minutes because of the blowout. Nene could be primed to light up the interior.
David West FD $6,700 DK $6,800 DS $13,624
As stated above, he was getting his game on last night before getting pulled because of the blowout.
I like this price a lot more on FanDuel and DraftStreet though he's serviceable on DraftKings as well. He'll get matched up against Kevin Love and while that probably won't hurt West too much on the offensive end there is some foul trouble risk. I hate factoring that kind of thing in because there's so much variance in foul trouble (please correct me if I'm wrong on that) but it could be a real thing with West.
Channing Frye FD $5,400 DK $5,100 DS $9,810
System still likes him even though he had some foul issues last night. Has the ability to crush these prices on the right shooting night. But he's only a tournament play for me.
Terrence Jones DS $8,639
Uh, what the hell is up with this guy? Had entered beast mode status only a few weeks ago. Has since bottomed out. I think he falls somewhere in between tonight against the Lakers.
Amar'e Stoudemire FD $4,200 DK $4,400
I'm as surprised as you, but have you been seeing what Amar'e's (Don't you love the double apostrophe possessive?) been up to lately? Coming off the bench, playing around 25 minutes, getting into double digit points and pitching in some rebounds. You can do a lot worse at these prices.
Marvin Williams FD $5,100 DK $5,300
Looks like a great play especially if Favors sits with injury. Even if Derrick plays, the Jazz have been running out a smaller lineup that's proved advantageous to Williams at the four.
Tristan Thompson FD $5,600
Straight crushed last night against Philly. Gets such another good opportunity without Varejao.
Jared Sullinger FD $6,500
Could be falling off some radars as the price climbs but he won't be overmatched against the Suns smallish interior. I think he'll be a low percentage start but could help you take a middling strategy at PF today.
Dwight Howard FD $9,100 DK $9,900 DS $21,179
Besides Harden, this is where all of the big money should be heading into your lineup. Pretty much every single reason to start the guy is on the table. Statistically? You bet. The Lakers are a trainwreck against centers. Physically? The Lakers have no one who can body him. Mentally? He has to want to reduce them to tears. Nationally televised? Sure, why not. In their two meetings so far this year, Dwight has averaged an 18/14. That alone is not enough to pay off these salaries, but I like him for better tonight.
Andre Drummond FD $8,500 DK $8,300 DS $18,013
If Dwight weren't getting such an insane bump in our system for playing the Lakers, Drummond would be looking like a top play on almost any other night. And if you think the Rockets railroad LA and Dwight doesn't see the fourth, then Drummond is your man. Only grabbed 22 rebounds yesterday. Is that good? Well guess what, he plays Al Jeff again tonight.
Nikola Vucevic FD $6,500
Have to love this price against the potentially Varejao-less Cavs. I just worry a bit about the minutes. He only played 27 last night in a game he was clearly dominating. Otherwise he's all systems go.
Tyler Zeller FD $3,600 DK $3,600
Take into mind that last night's performance was against Philly, lest you get too excited. That being said, Zeller poses an interesting play if Varejao sits again. These are basically minimum prices for a guy who could see around twenty-five minutes. He's far from a sure thing, but if the minutes are there you almost need to start him.
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