And we're back. Not a moment too soon either. I was really questioning how much time I was spending with my wife and kids. It was getting to be a little much really. All this time not looking at scores or salaries. Just you know, "enjoying" each other's company. Thank god the NBA is back.
We've got some big things happening around here at DFSR. Besides giving you the daily picks, we've also opened up our new lineup construction tool for FanDuel lineups and DraftStreet lineups. Check it out and use it this week. Leave us some comments on how we can improve and tweak the model. We are excited about bringing the best plays to you each night. On to today's plays.
Kyrie Irving FD $8,100 DK $8,400 DS $16,715
Did his All-Star Game performance piss off anyone else? I know it's an exhibition and defense is matador style, but 14-17 from the field? WTF? Where has this been all year? While Kyrie has hovered around the value stage for some of the season (at this price, not at other times) his big breakout games are few and far between. If he's going to turn it on at all, this is the night against the Sixers. He'll be a heavy play both because of opponent and others will factor in the ASG stat line into his expectation. The latter is incorrect of course, but he still remains a solid play.
Chris Paul FD $8,200 DK $9,000 DS $18,317
I mentioned right before the break that CP3's pricetag was way too low, especially on FanDuel. Before he went down to injury his salary was creeping towards 10K. Well he went out against Portland and put up a 20/12/4 line that had you well on your way to cashing. Guess what? The price is still way to low. While I think he represents value on DK and DS, he is nearing must start territory for me on FanDuel. This is kind of a joke of a price.
Michael Carter-Williams FD $7,500 DK $7,900 DS $14,527
I mention him here mostly because our system likes him. I'll be hard pressed to spend dollars on him on FD or DK (definitely not in double ups) with the two guys above him and one below hovering around a similar dollar range. That being said, Cleveland is terrible against opposing PGs. Like really bad. They hold the scoring in check. But rebounding? 23% worse than league average. Assists? 18% worse. Blocks? An astounding 60% worse than league average. When accounting for some of the defensive disparity, MCW starts looking like an upside play.
Brandon Knight FD $6,600 DK $6,800 DS $12,941
Plays a ton of minutes. Can score. The Bucks suck. He plays. I hate playing Bucks guys. Seems like a value. Orlando isn't great defensively. Ugh, I hate the Bucks.
Jameer Nelson DS $8,823
Crazy low price here today that builds in some upside. I'd consider him decently safe, although whenever I play him he seems to get hurt. So take that into mind.
Nate Wolters FD $3,900
Honestly, taking Bucks players makes me want to fucking puke. Having two picks in the same positional category? Oh god. But it's damn tough to ignore Wolters if he's in the starting lineup tonight. Under 4K for his recent minutes is a great upside play. Warning: he's on the Bucks where nothing is safe.
A bunch of value here today but it gets a little funky depending on the site. Most of these guys are solid across the board, and I wouldn’t necessarily shy away from any of them, but I want to point out where they are the best value.
Arron Afflalo FD $6,100 DK $6,300 DS $10,661
Afflalo is the one guy who is at or near the top of the list no matter the site. Our system likes his price across the board today, with decent reason. When accounting for recent and season long performance, the Bucks don't rate well against opposing shooting guards. This is coupled with Afflalo's price drop for recent struggles. The price is down especially on DraftStreet. Though his performance has been less than great, his minutes haven't changed at all and consider his last two games were against Memphis and Indiana, two of the stronger defensive squads in the game. Afflalo makes a strong play today.
Jamal Crawford FD $7,000 DK $6,500 DS $13,175
What's not to love here? Redick is already ruled out. Crawford is playing major minutes with JJ out of the lineup. This game against the Spurs should stay relatively close and they are about league average against opposing shooting guards. It all spells for Jamal getting to or above value. I don't see him as a huge upside play at these prices, but he's safe.
Victor Oladipo FD $6,700 DK $6,400 DS $11,289
Afflalo's backcourt teammate also looks like a nice play today. For a guy who isn't the most consistent dude in the world, his fantasy lines end up pretty steady at the end of the night simply because he can do so much in the box score. Sure he turns the ball over a decent amount, but he also is good for his share of steals and blocks.
Gerald Henderson DS $8,916
Just an insanely low price for a guy starting and averaging more than thirty minutes a game. Sub 9K? Give me a break. I know he had an abysmal performance against the Nets, but that seems like an outlier to me. He can pay this price off 3x which is crazy value on DS.
Lance Stephenson DS $12,291
Another guy whose price has dipped a bit on here, but don't expect it to stay in this range too long. This is buy low territory.
Marco Belinelli FD $4,200 DK $4,200
It's so difficult to project Spurs' minutes but these are bargain basement salaries for a guy seeing 30 minutes a night. Tremendous upside here.
Monta Ellis FD $7,000
Great value on Monta for FD tonight. He actually makes the decisions tough for me on this site tonight. Including him with some of the other guys listed above means for a lot of different avenues to travel with SG.
Luol Deng FD $6,000 DK $6,100 DS $11,874
So here's the thing about forgiveness. It takes time. Sometimes you need to bottom out in a relationship before you can begin working on repairing it. I'd say right now Deng and I have officially hit our nadir. I have recommended him and subsequently started him twice. In those two games he is a combined 1/19 from the field. That's good for just a tick above 5% shooting. Not too bad. Not too bad. He's been a ship sinker for me lately. But I'm analytical and cold-blooded. I'm trotting him back out there tonight against the Sixers. But this is it Luol. This is it.
LeBron James FD $11,200 DK $11,200 DS $22,239
If I can afford it, my big money is going in on Lebron tonight. He's expensive for sure, but across the board our system likes him even with the monster price tag. In his last six games, King James has been good for 29/9/8 and that includes a clunker against the Jazz. He's in beast mode right now without a doubt. Again, this is expensive, but I think you can make a strong case for him against a shaky Dallas squad.
P.J. Tucker FD $5,400 DK $4,700 DS $9,580
If you're looking to save for James with a dude who gets his run then Tucker is your man. He's played big minutes over the last three and Denver is no great shakes against small forwards. Tucker is a little risky as the Suns seem to spread the love a little more than I'd like for DFS purposes. But these prices, especially DK offers plenty of upside.
Evan Turner FD $6,200 DK $6,700 DS $11,330
Ugh. I don't think I'll be doing it with Deng out there. I hate both of them, but I hate Deng a little less.
Trevor Ariza FD $6,600
Very tasty price for Ariza, a DFSR favorite. Don't expect the 10 three pointers to ever happen again, but his forty or so minutes a game raises his basement considerably.
Tristan Thompson FD $5,600 DK $6,100 DS $12,952
With Varejao already ruled out for tomorrow's game, Thompson gets a great bump in value in an already advantageous matchup. When Varejao has sat the last two games Thompson has seen increased minutes, shots, points and rebounds. Factor in that Philly is about 10% worse in all of these statistical categories against power forwards and you are looking at a great play. Thompson will almost definitely be in everything I play on FanDuel.
Tim Duncan FD $8,600 DK $7,800 DS $15,754
The Clippers, for everything they do on offense and as big a name Blake Griffin is in the NBA, do very little against opposing power forwards. Part of this is the Clippers pace. They allow more volume to the opposing team just on the increase in possessions. But this doesn't tell the whole story as they aren't below league average against every position. But power forwards can put up big games. This makes Duncan a nice play, especially coming out of the All-Star break where it stands to reason Pop won't screw with the minutes too terribly much.
Dirk Nowitzki FD $7,500 DK $7,500 DS $14,934
Screwed me in the ASG freeroll on DraftStreet. But that's fine. He still looks good here tonight against the Heat. I don't think Lebron will guard him, though if he does it probably downgrades Nowitzki some. But I don't think there is much precedent there. Someone can feel free to correct me on that point if I'm wrong.
David West FD $6,700 DK $6,900 DS $13,624
I play him on all the wrong nights. Let's reverse that trend David. Do me a solid and let's be together on this one. West's major issue is consistency and it typically revolves around early foul trouble. Though Atlanta's defense against centers has improved lately, their D against power forwards has regressed to a startling degree. Look for West to take advantage inside.
Channing Frye FD $5,400 DK $5,000 DS $9,810
System adores him against Denver. Really loves him.
Ersan Ilyasova FD $5,200 DK $4,700 DS $8,465
Another god damn Buck (and there's one more on his way) but this one comes with an asterisk. I only like Ersan if John Henson is sitting. If Henson plays, I don't touch Ily. When Henson sits, Ersan's been crushing these prices. Completely crushing them and getting about 35 minutes a game. This pick is more about player and price than about opponent. The Magic are much improved inside with Vucevic back and everyone shifting back to their natural role. I think, as with any Buck, there is risk. Ilysova though looks great with a Henson-less Buck team.
Boris Diaw FD $4,300 DK $3,800
Been fairly steady the last three games and for these low salaries I think you can make the case if you're looking to get big money in other places.
Blake Griffin FD $10,000
The only site I'd play Blake on, but even at 10K he's a solid value against the Spurs.
Okay, going to try and simplify this I think center depends greatly on what site you're playing today. The values seem to differ greatly and I'll try and outline where to allocate those bucks. The only industry-wide play is:
Andre Drummond FD $8,500 DK $8,200 DS $18,013
Especially enticing on FD and DK. Drummond is a near lock for a 15/15 game each night. He and Al Jeff will be squared up in a matchup that is sure to feature very little one-on-one defense between the two. Jefferson gets owned a bit in rebounding against opposing centers which is amazing, but nevertheless true. I don't think Drummond will be a heavy play today. I'm a bit concerned with him getting in early foul trouble. Otherwise he has value at these prices.
DeAndre Jordan DK $7,600 and Al Jefferson DK $8,800
Both of these guys are steals on DraftKings today. It will tough to decide among the three (including Drummond) but it each option is kind of great. I would suggest rounding out your lineup and then choose the guy whose salary fit best.
Nikola Vucevic FD $6,500 DS $13,521
Have to love him against the hapless Bucks who are playing without any real center.
Zaza Pachulia FD $4,300
Have a soft spot for the guy. Probably because he's so soft. Super cheap price if Henson sits and with Sanders already out.
Jonas Valanciunas DS $9,844
He's the way I'd go if I don't spend on Drummond or Vuce.
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