DraftStreet All-Star Game FreeRoll Picks 2/16/14

DraftStreet All-Star Game FreeRoll Picks 2/16/14

So here’s the deal. Because we here at DFSR are nearing the degenerate state, looking for NBA action all of the time, reduced to coming up with fake salaries for B-list-ish celebrities on Friday night (nailed Arne Duncan as a hidden value) and essentially jones-ing for the second regular season action returns on Tuesday, I’m about to spend way too long on the DraftStreet All-Star game freeroll happening tomorrow. Way too long. But hey, you came here looking for the goods and I aim to please.

I started by entering data from the last four All-star games into a system aligned with the DraftStreet scoring rules. I wanted to see if there were any easily identifiable trends in All-Star scoring. We often think, rightfully so, of the ASG as an uptempo/ no defense affair. This is true. But I wanted to see how the style of game effected certain players and who could be expected to most match his salary expectation in this freeroll. Basically, the All-Star games benefits the best players. This isn’t a revelation necessarily, but it was surprising to see how much one or two players completely dominated the scoring in each game. Bottom line: the best players score the most.

Additionally, it seems to trend that a few of the starters play major minutes and the rest of the squad splits up the rest. I tried to project how many minutes each player would play, factoring in a couple of key considerations and then providing the rest as guess work. For instance, I assumed that Joakim Noah and Roy Hibbert wouldn’t be on the court together ever, and since they would both be coming off the bench, they would see considerably reduced minutes.

Also, because this game is in New Orleans, it stands to reason that Anthony Davis will see a little more hometown run. I factored in a couple of other things like D Wade, CP3 and Tony Parker’s recent health issues and gave them a downgrade in minutes. Then I assumed that because Joe Johnson was one of the worst ASG selections in recent memory, that he would see like three minutes. There were a couple of more considerations, but you see what I’m getting at here.

I then considered each player’s fantasy points per game output this year and placed it in line with how many minutes they see each night to give an idea of what kind of production they produced on a minute-by-minute basis during the season.

The All Star game isn’t much different than a regular NBA game in that guys who do the most across the stat line are typically the most valuable in fantasy. It seems there might be a slight bump in rebounds (as compared to the mean) and a slight decrease in assists (considering the amount of overall scoring) but for the most part things appear in line. On to the picks.

You should probably have

Lebron James $23,200 AND Kevin Durant $23,600

in your lineups. ASG’s are showcases for the very best. The highest scoring players each year are the ones who are the league’s most marketable. This is because the league’s most marketable players play the most minutes in the game. These people aren’t dumb. There’s a very real possibility that both of these guys out score the next closest person on their team by 20%. This means a guy like Kevin Love who’s priced at $21,700, isn’t necessarily an open court player and probably won’t see near the minutes of a KD has little to no shot of hitting a point/dollar ration near Durant. Case in point: last year KD put up 46.75 FPPs in the game. The next closest player in the West was Griffin at 36.5. That’s a massive disparity. Durant also played 37 minutes, three more than the next closest guy (Kobe) and six more than Blake. The same is true of Lebron. Lebron in fact is probably an even better start than Durant because his next closest marketable star is Melo and I can’t imagine the latter getting close to the expectation on his $21,3000 salary.

The only other big money guy I’m playing is

Blake Griffin $21,000

Besides that this game is made for a guy like Griffin who gets out in the open court about as good as any power forward (ever?), he also is a dude who the NBA clearly wants as a central focus in their move toward the future. Evidence his appearance in every single commercial for every product. Besides Lebron and KD, I think he’ll see the next most minutes in this game.

Then it’s:

Anthony Davis $12,700

Again, he stands to see significant run considering the home crowd. He also has a game in line with what we are looking for in ASG success. While I don’t think his blocks will keep pace, his rebounding and scoring should be sufficient to keep up with his mid-range price tag.

Now money is getting to be an issue. After this much salary is in we are going to need bench guys. I’m targeting:

DeMar Derozan $9,400

Here’s why I love this play. There stands a solid chance D-Wade either doesn’t play or sees reduced minutes. Derozan’s skill set factors on shooting, shooting, shooting more and then when he gets a moment he grabs a rebound. And then shoots again. The All-Star Game doesn’t benefit the timid or the unselfish (typically). One needs to worry not about making the extra pass or being a “team player”. Nope, you need to shoot. And score.

Chris Bosh $8,600

Bosh falls into somewhat of the same category as Derozan in that I think he sees additional minutes because Wade should see fewer. Also, the East has an athleticism issue, especially in terms of size outside of Lebron, Melo and George. They don’t have many guys who can keep pace up and down the court with the guys from the West. Bosh fits that need and I think he’ll see some additional minutes because of it. He is one of the best deals in this freeroll.

The final two guys I’ll be looking at are:

Dirk Nowitzki $8,900 and/or Paul Millsap $12,000

Both have decent price tags if you think they can play 15+ minutes in this one. I think that’s a completely reasonable expectation and both have well rounded games even if they aren’t the most fleet of foot. These picks are more about price than about actual style. Dirk is especially attractive for this play.

One more piece of strategy for this freeroll: Typically, in a freeroll or large tournament it is advantageous to play against the grain (or contrarian) because this will allow for field separation in order to hit the money. That isn’t necessarily the case with this one. The top prize is $1,000 but the next 399 spots are paid equally. And while that will most likely be only a small fraction of the player field, you need to consider that your primary goal is to hit the money. And while there is a 1K first prize payout, I think you can profit in this freeroll with a somewhat conservative approach. Then flip that $22 voucher into big money somewhere else.

Have fun with the All-Star game. We’ll be back with picks on Tuesday. Click the banner below for entry into the freeroll.