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Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

02/13/2014
Doug Norrie

The NBA does many a guy a major solid by getting the All-Star break to coincide with Valentine's Day. Granted, I've convinced Mrs. HoopDreams that V-Day is a silly, Hallmark induced disaster, so I'm good. But now you don't have to worry about sweating out any games while pretending to listen during a romantic dinner. Tonight's the last slate of games for a little stretch. Try to detox yourself appropriately. But before you do, get some money in tonight, cash in a few spots and take your significant other out for a nice night.

 

Guard

Reggies Jackson DS $11,288 DK $6,300
This game could be over in a hurry, but on a small night you can't go about avoiding blowouts so don't even bother. Opposing point guards actually only score at about a league average clip against the Lakers. That's mostly because they are expending their energy on dishing out crazy amounts of assists and snagging extra rebounds they usually don't get their hands on. Plus, opposing point guards don't have to worry too much about losing points on turnovers, Lakers don't create those. All of this makes for you getting Jackson in your lineups.

Kendall Marshall DS $11,566 DK $5,800
On the other side of the ball, just like that Kendall Marshall once again sees himself on the short list of Laker players who can dribble the ball over the half court line. Every team needs someone to do this for them (it's a rule) so Marshall gets the nod in lineups tonight on volume consideration alone. No matter the outcome of the game he should see heavy minutes with both Farmar and Nash sitting.

Jimmy Butler DS $11,115 DK $6,000
From a safety standpoint, Butler is just the kind of guy you're looking for on a night with a small slate because he's a virtual lock to play around 40 minutes. You really can't say this about any other player on the board tonight. Thibs plays Butler just insane minutes. It's really the major contributor in Jimmy's value because the dude doesn't crush the box score. But he hangs around the court enough to pay off and that's what you're looking for tonight.

DraftStreet Value

Kirk Hinrich DS $7,868
Like Butler, this is a minutes thing. Under 8K on DraftStreet for a starting point guard on a 2-game night is something you just have to do regardless of how slow and out of place Hinrich usually looks on the basketball court.

DraftKings Value

Steve Blake DK $6,000
Kind of the same thing as Butler/Hinrich from above, just with a different site price point. Blake, even with the injury to his elbow, should see plenty of minutes with every other Laker guard except Marshall banged up.

 

Forward

Kevin Durant DS $22,784 DK $11,400
Should probably be a 100% start but folks will fade him here and there. Just by far the best player on the board tonight (most nights) and I think there are a number of ways to fit him in your lineups. Durant against the Lakers should be sort of like me squaring up against my daughter and her other three year old friends from preschool. I'd be excelling in all phases of my game. Durant should be able to do the same thing. The case for fading him is that he doesn't see the fourth quarter. It's a risk you have to take.

Serge Ibaka DS $15,088 DK $7,700
In an effort to target the game with the highest over/under (and pray to Zeus it can stay close) Ibaka is a dude the Lakers will just have no answer for tonight, especially on the glass. At these prices, I'm not sure Ibaka has the upside you'd probably like to see against such a poor team like LA. But he also is the best PF on the board (from a DFS standpoint) now that Taj Gibson will likely head back to his 6th man role.

Shawne Williams DS $8,239 DK $4,700
This assumes he starts again tonight. What a weird year for Williams. One minute he's starting for LA. Then he's on the bench. Then he gets cut. Then resigned when everyone but the ballboy gets hurt. Then he's starting again. This probably says more about the state of the Lakers than it does about Williams as a player. Again, this pick is primarily about playing time (though Shawne was more than serviceable against Utah). Hopefully we can get word on the Lakers' starting five before lineup lock. If Ryan Kelly DS $7,239 DK $3,700 replaces Williams, so should you.

DraftStreet Value

Carlos Boozer DS $10,980
This is more a gut thing than a system one. Boozer should be back in the lineup tonight and his price has dipped since his injury. Though our system doesn't completely love him, there is some upside at this price if he gets his full run of minutes.

 

Center

Kind of icky here tonight. There are three starting centers out there tonight. Each is in a completely different price category and each comes with their own type of risk. For my money, I think I'm avoiding Noah. Joakim's been awesome lately, but it's been with Boozer out of the lineup. With Carlos coming back I think you can count on Noah's production dipping some, which at this price tag, is enough to steer clear. Go with:

Chris Kaman DS $13,936 FD 6200
As long as he's drawing the start again. Kaman has crushed of late, though remember that 2/3 of those huges lines were against Philly and Utah. (The other was against Chicago who are stout against centers.) Know, that I don't feel awesome about this play. I think Kaman is going to come back down to Earth (he is Chris Kaman after all) and I'm not too terribly interested in being around for the fall. If this were any other night Kaman wouldn't sniff the picks list. But alas, there are so few options that he gets the nod.

DraftStreet Value

Kendrick Perkins DS $5,911
I think you can strongly consider punting with him tonight here. This price is so low and he has to do so very little to pay it off against a bad team. It is so tempting to take him. Let it be known that Perkins is the number one guy in our system on DraftStreet from a dollar/expectation standpoint when considering the whole year statistically. I don't think it tells the whole story but it's worth mentioning.

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