Ooh boy, last night was a bit much. Ended up staring at a few too many Bucks when it was all said and done. Let that be a lesson to myself. Never expect to count on a more than one guy under the control of Larry Drew. Alas, we move on with life (though for a second last night I thought I might move on into the next life). Let's take a look at some picks for the day.
Quick reminder about these picks. At DFSR we employ a system that seeks to gain the most points-per-dollar. When we give a recommendation, it’s because we believe that player has the best chance to meet or exceed his price. On any given the night the highest dollar player can be expected to score the most points, but that doesn’t always make him the best play for the money. In addition to our ebook on setting NBA lineups, keep an eye out for upcoming premium offerings that will provide real time tools for setting optimal lineups each night.
I could make a fairly strong case for about eight of the fourteen starting point guards today. This is probably the make or break position on the day in that there are some pretty nice values, from some bigger names. I'll highlight three here, but know this was the hardest position to choose and not end up with half of the relevant guys represented. Who would that help?
Reggie Jackson FD $6,300 DK $6,000 DS $11,072
I think Jackson is the top value play on the board tonight. He's not exactly the most consistent point guard around. Part of this stems from Durant's uber-focus (understatement) in the offense. But Jackson can fill it up on the right nights. The risk is reflected in the price. And I usually wouldn't recommend him in a double up format, but I'm almost okay with it here. Portland has been bad against point guards this year, and really, really bad recently. Like 30% worse than league average across the board. Some of this is running up against the Curry's and Wall's of the world. But the Felton's and George Hill's are in their too. All this is to say, play Jackson.
Isaiah Thomas FD $7,900 DK $7,500 DS $14,881
IT3 is second on the list, but closer to the pack below him than to Jackson. Just didn't want you to think they were tied. Thomas has played at a high level since becoming the starter and tonight gets an added bump by facing Cleveland. The Cavs aren't too bad at stopping opposing PGs from scoring. But everything else? Yikes. Point guards grab 25% more rebounds than league average. 18% more assists. 10% more steals. And they turn the ball over less. So Kyrie, you got some 'splaining to do.
Nick Calathes FD $5,100 DK $5,200 DS $9,871
Has been so steady since taking over for Conley. The minutes are there every night and the price hasn't caught up to the production. Not by a long shot. What I also like about his performance is that it hasn't come against the Philly's or Lakers' of the world. Calathes has performed well against better and worse than league average defenses. This price is also extremely advantageous for getting big money in down the rest of the lineup.
Trey Burke DS $7,793
Worth mentioning Burke here because even though he's blown of late if there ever existed a slump busting team, it's the Lakers. This price, for a guy still getting thirty minutes a night at the point is crazy. Pretty much need to start him.
Gordon Hayward FD $7,100 DK $7,000 DS $13,047
What't not to love about this matchup? On a short night, targeting guys against the worst possible defense is a completely sound strategy. I mean it's sound every night, but especially with less games. The recent (effective) chucking of Marvin Williams has eaten into Hayward's production. This is less of an issue against the Lakers because dudes have no problem getting shot, after shot, after shot up against them. Price is especially nice on DraftStreet. He will be a heavy percentage play.
Steve Blake FD $6,400 DK $5,800 DS $12,872
Don't let last game against the Bulls deter you from Blake. The Bulls live to stop guys like him as they slowed the game down to a halt. Utah isn't much better from a PACE department, but they are much, much worse on defense than the Bulls. I especially like his price on DraftKings.
These three guys all rate high on our DS board tonight an all are priced almost identically. If you are looking for value in this range, throw a dart (at your computer, you heard me, throw one).
Gerald Henderson DS $10,968
Jimmy Butler DS $10,845
Wesley Matthews DS $10,776
Rudy Gay FD $7,700 DK $7,500 DS $16,039
Oh yeah. What's not to love here? Cleveland is atrocious. They can't guard the small forward position, even with the addition of Deng. As long as Gay's over being sick he should be back to getting his shot up. This is a great play, but almost essential on FanDuel and DraftKings.
LeBron James FD $11,000 DK $10,900 DS $22,025
If I'm spending big money it's on Lebron and then at center. If I'm forced to choose, I'd buck up for one of the big center options, so fair warning. Outside of a stinker verse the Jazz of all teams, Lebron's been murdering these prices. Phoenix plays at a near breakneck pace which should increase Lebron's touches. Our system likes Lebron's multiplier which is never easy at such a huge pricetag. I think that makes him a safe play in double ups.
DeMarre Carroll FD $6,200 DK $6,200 DS $12,378
I'm not as gung-ho about this pick but your options are severely limited tonight and if you're hoping to middle around, Carroll makes a decent play. Chicago is no cakewalk but Carroll's recent performance suggests he can hit value even with a tough opponent.
Wesley Johnson FD $5,300 DK $5,100
The case against Carroll is what Chicago did to Wes Johnson last game. But luckily Wes doesn't play the Bulls again. He gets the Jazz who are much more league average against small forward.
This position is downright gross tonight.
Marvin Williams FD $5,200 DK $5,000 DS $11,920
He'll be a high percentage start in every format tonight because the recent performance suggests he'll continue jacking up his fifteen shots a game. He's been running a bit hot from the field, over 50% recently so expect some regression there. But he can probably make up for it in opportunity against the Lakers. I don't suggest getting away from him tonight. The price is too advantageous and the opponent sucks.
Nene Hilario FD $6,800 DK $6,400 DS $12,984
After Williams I start getting little uncomfortable about some of these plays. Nene has been playing great, but it's opponents like Memphis who can slow some production down from a guy who's been crushing. I have a sneaky feeling this is as high as Hilario's price rises in the short term. That being said, I still think he can hit this value against a stout opponent.
Carlos Boozer FD $6,400 DK $5,700 DS $10,800 or Taj Gibson FD $6,400 DK $6,400 DS $13,902
Getting a little slippery here. I'm much more comfortable starting Taj if Boozer sits, than starting the Booz-man if he's back from injury. Follow? Our system likes both because Atlanta been shredded against power forwards recently. Again, check in on who's playing tonight.
Zach Randolph FD $7,900 DK $7,800 DS $15,825 or Dirk Nowitzki FD $7,700 DK $7,700 DS $15,823
I have these guys paired almost identical on our board, and quite a ways down from Williams/ Hilario in terms of dollar/ point expectation. These guys are fairly safe options because of their roles and price. Neither is off the charts in terms of getting me excited to play them, but their price tags are decent.
Here's where you can start getting excited. If you're looking to spend the big bucks, with the highest expectation, the next two guys are the ones the guys to target.
Al Jefferson FD $9,800 DK $9,300 DS $19,841
Been on the Dominate the World Tour of the country with stops in Denver, LA, Golden State and back home in Charlotte. On his way he scored a ton. Rebounded a ton. Stole a bunch. Blocked a little and basically embarrassed the competition. I don't see it stopping tonight against Dallas, who has no legitimate big to handle Big Al. I love Jefferson in this spot tonight though it will be hard to choose between him and...
DeMarcus Cousins FD $9,600 DK $9,600 DS $19,984
These prices, especially on FD are just a little silly. Cousins should have no problem paying this against a Cavs team who've been allowing 22% more scoring to opposing centers of late. Got to love Boogie here. And I just can't see a reason to get away from these two big money centers. I wish I could find a way to start both on FD.
Chris Bosh FD $6,800 DK $6,500 DS $11,915
But if you do want to go contrarian, this is the spot. In a big tournament, Bosh represents the contrarian play with upside against the Jazz.
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