Are you working for the weekend? Not me. I work specifically for Friday. Even more specifically, for Friday evening. Want to drill it down even more? I specifically work for the Friday when the Sixers and the Lakers meet on the hardwood. This game has me freaking giddy. They are the first and third teams respectively in PACE and the 27th and 25th ranked teams in Defensive Efficiency. This is like the Aurora Borealis, it only comes around every so often and when it does you should not look away.
Quick reminder about these picks. At DFSR we employ a system that seeks to gain the most points-per-dollar. When we give a recommendation, it’s because we believe that player has the best chance to meet or exceed his price. On any given the night the highest dollar player can be expected to score the most points, but that doesn’t always make him the best play for the money. In addition to our ebook on setting NBA lineups, keep an eye out for upcoming premium offerings that will provide real time tools for setting optimal lineups each night.
Quick note: Our system really likes Kyrie Irving tonight. But after last game's playing time debacle I'm just so worried about the Cavs situation. From a numeric perspective, he looks great on paper. But tread lightly.
John Wall FD $9,400 DK $9,900 DS $18,572
Not the highest value among point guards tonight, but the best big money option. Wall's been awesome of late, stepping up his game significantly. Tonight he gets the Cavs who've really struggled at containing point guards. They will find it difficult to contend with Wall's speed.
Jordan Farmar FD $5,600 DK $4,700 DS $8,785
The only thing that worries me about this pick, and it's an important consideration, is how Nash and Farmar (and Blake to some degree) split minutes. Nash played without Farmar two games ago and vice versa last game. Should they both be suited up tonight there could exist a playing time problem. Otherwise, the matchup against Philly is just so choice for anyone in the Laker backcourt.
Jameer Nelson FD $5,900 DK $5,600 DS $10,076
A sneaky great value tonight. With so many more popular point guards going tonight you could find a nice contrarian use for Nelson. OKC is allowing 20% more scoring than league average against opposing point guards. If there's any chance of Orlando keeping it close in this one you've got a gem in Jameer.
Michael Carter-Williams FD $7,800 DK $7,600 DS $14,786
The recent numbers don't support it, but if you believe MCW can ever find some of that early season magic, tonight is the night for you. The game should be up and down the court. It should be sloppy and frantic. It should be wide open. All of this benefits MCW and his style. And while the Lakers aren't disgustingly bad against point guards (like they are against virtually every other position) they are far from good. It's a risk, but I think it could be worth taking.
Some very odd prices on this site tonight for guards.
Reggie Jackson DS $9,835
Inconsistent yes. But still starting point guard for OKC. Still playing 30+ minutes a night and could win help you a tournament on the right night at this price.
Brian Roberts DS $6,536
This one seems crazy. I mean he is the starting point guard for the Pelicans. And while he's been far from good, I think he gets an added boost if Tyreke Evans sits. Completely worth it.
Trey Burke DS $7,384
Another guy who's really struggled but still has the minutes and the opportunity.
Steve Blake FD $6,100 DK $4,800 DS $11,967
Had a triple double the other night. Steve Blake had a triple double. God the Cavs suck. Like Farmar, I'm just a bit concerned with Blake's playing time, but not enough to get him out of my lineups in his matchup verse the Sixers. Price is nice across the board, but in must start territory on DraftKings.
Bradley Beal FD $6,500 DK $6,300 DS $10,119
No minutes restriction? No problem. Could tear apart the Cavs tonight. Beal finds away to get his 15+ shots up a night and I love that kind of volume, especially on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings. Even when the shot isn't falling he's finding a way to get value. But watch out for the night he catches fire. He'll crush these prices. Did you see the shooting performance the Lakers put on against the Cleveland "defense"? It's easy to love a bunch of Wizards tonight.
Jamal Crawford FD $6,900 DK $6,600 DS $11,793
Been playing at a high level already and becomes a fantastic option if Redick sits again. If Jamal is in the starting lineup I think you can consider him even against a defensively sound Toronto team.
James Anderson FD $4,600 DK $4,300 DS $8,291
Anderson's been on the DFSR radar all season long. We loved him the other night and he crushed his price even with limited minutes because of injury. Against the Lakers he'll see more than his share of looks. Just check to be sure the back injury doesn't keep him out of the game.
Eric Gordon FD $5,700 DK $5,900
Take note that I didn't include his DraftStreet price because I don't think he's worth it there. But at sub 6k and possibly no Tyreke Evans, this is looking pretty enticing.
DeMar Derozan DK $7,500
Whoa. Get him in your lineups here. Stat.
Typically a barren wasteland of mediocrity and cringe-worthy names, small forward actually has some promise today. Kind of a lot of promise. I'm not exactly sure how to react. Seems too good to be true.
Kevin Durant FD $12,100 DK $11,700 DS $22,519
Let me say that I think the guys listed below represent significant cost/expectation increases over KD. But I also think there are so many affordable options across the board today that you may run into a money issue. Like, you can't get it all in. Durant makes a solid, though less than spectacular play for the money. Obviously he's a superstar, this is just a bit pricey. Wanted to get that out of the way.
Wesley Johnson FD $4,500 DK $5,100 DS $8,349
The Lakers are short on offensive options and Johnson has really no one to contend with him for playing time anymore. A guy in this price range, with his expected minutes and the ability to knock down the three for these prices? Almost a must start.
Ryan Kelly FD $4,600 DK $4,300 DS $8,706
On a site like FanDuel that requires you start two SFs, I think there's a case to be made for starting Kelly and Johnson together in every format. With Nick Young and Meeks out, Kelly should continue to see decent/ heavy minutes. Thirty minutes from him is nearly a lock to pay these salaries without even factoring in that he's facing a bottom-feeding defense.
Evan Turner FD $6,600 DK $7,100 DS $11,996
Facing off Kelly and Johnson will be one of the most frustrating DFS dudes ever. He's great. Then he sucks. Then he's great. Then he sucks again. Wash, rinse, repeat. Tonight there's too much upside in the matchup to not consider Turner, especially in a big tournament structure. Want some numbers? Over the last two weeks the Lakers are 20% worse than league average against opposing small forwards scoring. And that is the area they excel in against SFs. Rebounding and Assists? More than 40%!!!! worse than league average. It's like the other team gets to suit up a SF and then get like another regular average Joe to run around alongside that guy picking up extra rebounds and assists.
JR Smith FD $6,000 DK $5,800 DS $11,672
Worse than the plays listed above, but worth considering. Smith has been getting back to his Sixth Man of the Year play from not too long ago. Even with Shumpert back in the lineup Smith has been seeing significant minutes and making them count. Denver doesn't defend SF particularly well and Smith's hybrid style should open up holes in their defense.
Trevor Ariza FD $6,900 DK $6,000 DS $12,881
We love playing Ariza. I think we'll be hard pressed to do it tonight, but he still ranks pretty high in our system. He's a virtual lock for more than 38 minutes a night and just does so much in the box score that he is a great double up play.
Paul George DS $13,726
I'm targeting George on DS tonight specifically if Stephenson is out. If Lance plays the decision becomes a little closer for me. But this price is starting to bottom out for George. If Lance sits, PG will have to pick up more of the offensive load and makes a fantastic play on this site.
Jeff Green DS $10,162
Also a great price for a ton of upside. While I don't think he has another 36/8 performance in him for quite some time, this salary is perfect considering the Kings just stink against the opposing small forward.
Thaddeus Young FD $7,000 DK $7,300 DS $13,739
Will be a heavy play for me tonight on every site. Young most assuredly isn't the future Hall of Famer he played like for a brief stretch in late December/early January. But he's damn good. A 25/9/4 line isn't out of the question for him tonight against the Lakers who'll really struggle with his athleticism and inside/out game.
Serge Ibaka FD $7,500 DK $7,400 DS $15,362
Even with Vucevic back, the Magic are struggling to keep opposing big men off the glass. They also get the shit blocked out of them on the regular. Guess what Ibaka's two areas of strength are? It ain't his listening skills and penmanship. He could feast on the Magic tonight.
Jared Sullinger FD $6,200 DK $6,200 DS $11,745
Brad Stevens challenged Sullinger to step up his game. This talking to appears successful. I could use more Brad Stevens in my life. Specifically, I'd like him to speak to everyone I know who could stand to get their shit together. If it worked for Sullinger, it could work for everyone. He's been dismantling opposing teams both scoring and on the glass. Tonight is no cake walk against Boogie Cousins, but I think the price dictates another play across the board.
Carmelo Anthony FD $10,100 DK $10,100 DS $18,341
He's down the list because I think there are better value options out there. That being said, if you've gone cheap across the board and have money to spend Melo makes for a decent play against the Nuggets, especially if he plays the 4. One thing to keep in mind about Anthony that was mentioned during the Knick game against Portland is that Melo's efficiency drops fairly dramatically as the game goes on. So if you play him and he has a big first quarter, temper your excitement. And if he stinks early? Congrats, you're sunk.
Anthony Davis FD $9,900 DK $9,800 DS $
Great, great price. Was a heavy start on Wednesday at 10K. Could be an even bigger one against Minnesota with a banged up K-Love and no Pekovic. Should be in your lineups in all formats. His price gets a little steep on DS where he's priced right in line with Durant. I'd rather take KD in that situation.
Dirk Nowitzki FD $8,500 DK $8,200
Another fantastic value. Not sure how he completely fits with so many other great options on the board, but I wanted to include him because our system loves him tonight against Utah who could be without Favors again.
Brandon Bass FD $4,600 DK $4,600
Looking for a near punt price from a dude who plays heavy minutes? Look no further than Bass who's been crushing these salaries with ease.
Spencer Hawes FD $6,700 DK $6,900 DS $12,865
By far the best center value on the day against. The Laker bigs won't be able to follow him out to the perimeter and their smaller guys can't defend him inside. If the Sixers don't go to Hawes early and often I don't know what to tell you. The Lakers gets statistically murdered by opposing centers. Like if numbers could kill, their Defensive efficiency stats against centers should be arrested. (perfect, flawless analogy)
Jonas Valanciunas FD $5,700 DK $5,800 DS $12,175
Worse than Hawes but still a solid price against DeAndre and Clippers. The case for Jonas is he's a bit more consistent than Hawes and has a favorable matchup. I'll be hard pressed to get him into my lineups but he's worth a mention because our system grades him out in a tier just below Hawes. (Note below that for a similar price on DK I'd much rather have Varejao)
Ronnie Turiaf FD $4,000 DK $3,900 DS $7,313
If you feel like punting center tonight, Turiaf continues to churn out value at these rock bottom prices. He's playing 23-28 minutes a night and the Pelicans are particularly bad against centers.
Demarcus Cousins FD $9,500 DK $9,200
If you want spend big here Boogie is your man. He could very easily overmatch Sullinger or whoever the Celtics throw his way. Boston is 20% worse than league average in allowing opposing centers to score. Boogie will pose real problems down low.
Anderson Varejao DK $5,600
Yikes. What a price. Tough to get away from him here on DK as long as you know he's playing. Almost seems like a mistake.
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