Get prepared for a big Friday in the National Basketball Association. It's always great to start your weekend by ignoring your family and responsibilities and sweating a full slate of games. TGIF indeed. We've got a lot to get to so let's just dive right in.
Quick reminder about these picks. At DFSR we employ a system that seeks to gain the most points-per-dollar. When we give a recommendation, it’s because we believe that player has the best chance to meet or exceed his price. On any given the night the highest dollar player can be expected to score the most points, but that doesn’t always make him the best play for the money. Want an in-depth look at how we set our lineups each night? Sign up for our email list and get a free eBook on the 6 steps every pro takes before setting his lineup, either by clicking that link or signing up through the sidebar. On to the picks.
As always, there are a number of quality options at point guard today.
Kyle Lowry FD $7,900 DS $15,642 -
Lowry was sick the other night, which may have contributed to an 0/10 shooting line. It seems as if it was a one day bug and he'll be back to lay waste to the Sixers and their particular brand of sucking on defense. He is the top guard play today. I'll have him in lineups on both sites.
Stephen Curry - FD $9,500 DS $20,039-
This should be an exciting game to watch with Curry leading the charge. But we don't make picks because something will be "fun" to watch. We make this pick because these two teams play a high volume ball, and Minnesota's style translates for increased production for the opposing point guard. This is where Curry sees a bump in our system. He's pricey but can pay more than 5x at this price with the right opponent. The T-wolves are that team.
DJ Augustin - FD $6,500 DS $14,873-
His FanDuel price has climbed a bit while DraftStreet's is still in the same range. But it matters not. Augustin is the man in Chicago right now. He's playing huge minutes the Bulls don't really have anyone else with Hinrich out. Plus he faces Darren Collison who is dealing with a foot injury and it all spells a nice value play.
Brandon Knight FD $6,500 DS 13,464-
Knight isn't the best "real life" basketball player in the whole world, but for our purposes we aren't really worried about that. He has the ability to really pay off this price, especially against the Cavs, who are an abomination against opposing point guards. They are about at the bottom of the league defending the position and Knight could really put together a day.
Jeff Teague FD $6,400 DS $13,259-
Teague is a gourmet five course feast or world ending famine kind of player. The Spurs have been sneaky bad against point guards this year. Start Teague at your own risk, and he won't sniff a double up lineup for me. But if he puts it together he has big game potential.
Brian Robert FD $4,700 DS $10,994-
Roberts on the other hand seems fairly safe at these prices against the Pistons. He's filled in adequately for Holiday and hasn't seen his minutes change with Tyreke Evans back from injury. All that spells for a nice cash game play.
Arron Afflalo - FD $6,200 DS $13,984 -
Afflalo has really struggled in his last two games, mostly because he isn't getting his shot up. Part of it could be a nagging foot injury, but I suspect most of it is just circumstance. His price has dropped enough that I think you can strongly consider him as a play. He gets the Lakers and the game should stay fairly close. There will be plenty of shots to go around and Afflalo has some serious upside in this game if he gets hot.
Victor Oladipo - FD $6,800 DS $13,379 -
As does his teammate Oladipo. In some ways Oladipo is safer than Afflalo because he doesn't rely almost completely on scoring to get into the box score. Against a Laker team that jacks shots and can be a bit sloppy with the ball, Oladipo has a chance to really pad some stats.
DeMar Derozan - DS $15,617-
He's getting a little price on FanDuel, though with the matchup against Philly I think you can make the case for DeMar. On DS, he's a top play at this price. Derozan is a high volume guy that just keeps shooting. He puts up more than 20 shots a night. Against he Sixers, he might get into the 25 shot attempt range. Last game was a bit more than you should expect only because he got to the line way more than usual, but look for DeMar to fill it up tonight.
Gerald Henderson - DS $9,890-
Recommended him the other night. He paid off. Then his price dropped. The Knicks are atrocious in general, but are especially bad against shooting guards.
Lou Williams DS $6,713-
This is a bit speculative, but is contingent on Demarre Carroll sitting out. Last time Carroll sat Williams drew the start. If that happens again you need to get Lou into your lineups at this price.
James Anderson FD $4300 -
We love recommending Anderson on FD because he has 6-7x upside on the right night. He also has 2x downside making him strictly a tournament play.
As usual this position is a complete minefield
Kevin Durant - FD $12,100 DS $24,001-
Can't believe I'm throwing him out there at these prices, but I don't want to be the guy that leaves him off a pick list. Not at the level he's playing. And even though these salaries are in the stratosphere our system actually still likes Durant. The biggest issue actually might not be his price, but that OKC might blowout the Celtics. For now though, the line is in the -7 range making Durant feel a little safer.
Khris Middleton - FD $4,600 DS $9,881 -
How's that for a drop off in talent? Stepping off the cliff into the Larry Drew rotation abyss is more like it. The Bucks don't know which way is up with their rotations but at least for the time being, Middleton seems to be the starter. He played big minutes last game and has shown flashes of putting up nice stat lines. He is a tournament play that carries a ton of risk but the Cavs have been bad all year against the SF position.
Trevor Ariza - FD $6,500 DS $13,030-
I can't quit you Trevor.
Chandler Parsons - DS $14,275-
Though it's against Memphis, this is still a decent midrange price for Parsons. His last two games have been strong and the Grizzlies are about league average against the position, slightly worse over the last 15 days.
Chris Johnson - $3,500 -
Been fairly productive for the Celtics at a minimum salary.
Glen Davis - FD $5,900 DS $11,883-
Look no further than Chris Bosh, who is essentially a power forward, and how he destroyed the Lakers last night which falls in line with what every other opposing big man has done to them this year. We have Big Baby as the top power forward play on both sites. Davis has struggled last few games, but those were against league average interior defenses. The Lakers are a whole different crappy animal. Look for Big Baby to get his tonight.
Tristan Thompson - FD $6,000 DS $11,351-
Has shown he can post big lines against weak teams. Cleveland has taken a dip of late in their defense of opposing power forwards. That's one thing going for Thompson. Additionally, Tristan has been playing about 38 minutes a night and that kind of volume just pays itself off. I actually think he's a fairly safe play today.
Tobias Harris - FD $5,900 DS $12,190-
Like him for pretty much all of the reasons I like Big Baby.
Pau Gasol - FD $8,800 DS $17,984-
Been crushing lately and gets a severely undersized and undermanned Orlando back line defense that is still without Vucevic.
Zach Randolph - DS $14,728-
A top play on DraftStreet today and will be in almost all of my lineups. Honestly, I don't really understand the price. It is criminally low for a guy like Z-Bo who can put up 40FPPs. Plus he gets Houston where he'll either be facing Terrence Jones or Donatas Motiejunas. I love Randolph in this spot.
Anthony Davis - FD $9,400-
A threat to go for 50FPPs every night and at this price I see him as having more upside than even someone like Kevin Love who's $1,400 more expensive. I really like him against Detroit tonight.
Derrick Williams - FD $4,200-
Yes it's against Indiana, but Williams is a near minimum player who should see many of Rudy Gay's minutes with Gay out for a few games.
**Keep an eye on Andrew Bogut's status before game time. If he sits Marreese Speights FD $3,500 becomes a nice punt option.
Andre Drummond FD $7,800 DS $15,693-
Liked him as a cash game play the other night and very little has changes. Drummond is remarkably consistent in his DFS scoring and I think you can start pencilling him in for about 35 FPPs a night, which at this price is getting you into the money.
Marcin Gortat FD $6,700 DS $13,735 -
Been playing great his last two games and should keep it going tonight against Phoenix's small lineup. Gortat could really see a boost in his scoring and rebounding against his former team.
Anderson Varejeo FD $7,900 DS $16,774 -
Varejeo's only hiccup since Bynum left town was against the Bulls who are about the best in the league at defending the opposing center. Hope that it was enough to take him off of people's radars because Anderson has beast mode potential.
Tyson Chandler $5,000-
Absolutely no reason for this price to be this low on this site. Has paid it 6x three of the last four games.
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View Comments
In regards to the 6 trade article how do you figure out your multiplier per player. Ex you had a multiplier of 4.4 for Cousins but a 4.2 for Plumlee. How are you figuring out the multiplier?
Hey there - thanks for reading, and you ask a good question!
Our system projects a point total for each player, and the multiplier is created by multiplying the point total by 1000 and dividing by the salary. So if Cousins has a 10k salary and is projected for 44 points, he would have a 4.4 multiplier. Thanks for reading! Hope you had some luck tonight!