Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks for Draftstreet and FanDuel 1/21/14

Yo. A little switcheroo for today - this is your old buddy Mister March offering some good picks for the day, as opposed to Hoopdreams. But never fear, Hoopdreams and I talk literally every day about daily fantasy basketball, and employ an identical system... so hopefully I won't lead you astray!

Quick reminder about these picks. At DFSR we employ a system that seeks to gain the most points-per-dollar. When we give a recommendation, it’s because we believe that player has the best chance to meet or exceed his price. On any given the night the highest dollar player can be expected to score the most points, but that doesn’t always make him the best play for the money. Want an in-depth look at how we set our lineups each night? Sign up for our email list and get a free eBook on the 6 steps every pro takes before setting his lineup, either by clicking that link or signing up through the sidebar. On to the picks.

 

 

Point Guard

Damian Lillard FD $8,100 DS $15,621 -
Lillard is a guy who I like for double ups and GPPs - Oklahoma City has given up 11% more fantasy points to opposing PGs than league average, and this ought to be a close game.

Trey Burke - FD $6,100 DS $12,711-
Before last game, Trey Burke had been steady Eddie. Again, perfect for both double ups and GPPs for his consistently high floor and his occasional break outs. Minnesota has been defending the PG position a little better recently with Rubio playing fewer minutes, but that shouldn't make much difference for Burke, who will be lining up against the first unit. With Hayward likely to return to the lineup on Tuesday, everyone on Utah will lose a few shots, but I like Burke regardless as I think he's cemented his place in Utah's scheme. It's going to keep me away from Johnny-come-lately Alec Burks, though.

Isaiah Thomas - FD $7,800 DS $15,188-
Thomas has been playing massive minutes recently, and while I don't like him as much as Burke or Lillard, his upside at this price is as good as anyone's. New Orleans has been defending the point a little bit better with Brian Roberts handling defensive duties, but it should effect Thomas too much, as they are still just 4% better than league average against PGs in their last 15 games.

 

Shooting Guard

Shooting guard is somewhat of a wasteland, but there are a few diamonds in the rough.

Joe Johnson - FD $6,200 DS $14,245 - Just keep playing JJ until the price catches up. He's paying this price so routinely that it's getting a little bit ridiculous. Orlando gives up 8% more points to SGs than league average, too. I mean, COME ON! Not fair. JJ is a must play, and I won't be debated on the subject.

Alan Anderson - FD $3,800 DS $7,186- Chronically underpriced as well, Anderson has been logging extremely consistent minutes (even in D-will's return). He's getting plenty of looks and plenty of love, and I'm happy to start both Johnson and Anderson in GPP formats. For double ups, I'm probably not going to put all my eggs in one basket.

Wesley Matthews - FD $6,200 DS $11,056 - I can't justify spending this price on Matthews with Johnson being so similar on FanDuel, but Matthews makes a fine play in either format against an OKC team who has been much worse against SGs recently. I especially like him on Draftstreet, where his price is significantly better than Johnson's.

Potential value -
Ray Allen FD $3,600, DS $6,171 - Keeping my eye on Wade again - if he's out, Ray's a must. You can even justify playing him on DS either way.

 

Small Forwards

Some variability across the sites here, so pay close attention!

Kevin Durant - FD $12,100 DS $22,952- The Durantula continues to produce at an incredible level, and I love him in a game that promises to be close. He's looking like a safer option than 'Bron in FD double-ups just due to a closer game, but I'd be happy with either anchoring the SF position for me.

Rudy Gay - FD $7,700 DS $14,964 - I'm feeling Gay for a bounceback performance in this one, and while his shooting percentage was destined to come back to earth, I think his talent level and opportunity lies closer to the guy we saw when he first arrived in Sacto, rather than the guy we've seen recently.

FanDuel Only:
LeBron James - FD $10,700 - The system likes James best of any small forward today, which is awfully rare for a player of this price. It's noticing that Boston has been HORRENDOUS against small forwards recently, and while there's considerable blow-out risk here, James is going to be a part of any blowout that happens. I'm shrugging my shoulders and putting him in, figuring on him paying this price fairly routinely.

Paul Pierce - FD $6,000- There's more upside here than you might realize, as Orlando has given up %18 more fantasy points to shooting guards in their last 15 games. The lost of Vucevic has made Orlando positively tiny, and the trickle down effect to the SG position has been considerable. I love Pierce's floor here, and can't imagine him paying anything less than 4.5x on FD.

 

Power Forward

Power forward is top heavy tonight, with a few interesting value plays mixed in.

Anthony Davis - FD $9,400 DS $20,794 - The system can hardly believe that Davis' price hasn't caught up to the other elite bigs in the game on FanDuel, and his price on Draftstreet isn't terrible either. Following another soul-crushing performance on Monday night, Davis lines up against a Sacramento team that is slightly worse than league average against PFs. Expecting a monster from him in this one.

Jason Thompson - FD $4,100 DS $9,188-
Thompson has been pouring it on lately in increasingly large numbers of minutes. While Davis, his counterpart, has a reputation as a great defender, it doesn't stop New Orleans from being 9% worse than league average in terms of giving up points to power forwards. Thompson is a great value and a great play in general, and given the strong options at some other positions, I'm happy to have him in there alongside one of the other big money guys.

Andray Blatche - FD $5,300 DS $10,725 - Dray dray had his way way (ugh) with the Horfordless Hawks a couple games ago, and I expect him to positively dominate the Vucevicless Magic as well. He's getting more run recently and is absolutely making the most of it. While I'm still wary of him for double-ups, I'm pumped to get this upside in play in GPP formats for sure.

Kevin Love - FD $10,600 DS $22,117- Love's price isn't quite as good as Davis', but he unquestionably holds the greatest upside of any PF (and I especially like him better than the similarly priced Aldridge given their matchups). I'm fine with Love in either format, but I'd rather spend a little less on Davis and spend more elsewhere.

FanDuel Only:
Kris Humphries - $4,900 - Not a double-up play by any means, but you could do a lot worse than rolling the dice on Humphries at $1,100 less than the similarly priced Sullinger. When Humphries is right, he absolutely destroys this price... and while Miami is far from an ideal matchup, it wouldn't take much for Humphries to more than satisfy what you're asking of him here.

 

Center

DeMarcus Cousins - $9,800 DS $20,082- The Boogie Man is just SO much better than the other centers today that I'm having a hard time picturing a lineup without him. Price, matchup, upside - everything - our system lists him as 16% better for his dollar than the next best center, which is nearly unheard of.

Chris Bosh, FD $7,300 DS $14,563- If for some reason you want to fade the Boogie Man, and god help you if you do, holding your nose and choosing Bosh wouldn't be the worst thing. Boston gives up 9% more FPs than league average to centers, and while the game might be a blow-out, Bosh should do pretty well here.

Nikola Pekovic, FD $7,900 DS $15,322 - Peko has a nice matchup here against Utah, and absolutely went off last game. At this price, he's got similar upside to Bosh, and I'd be fine with either if it were a matter of making the money work.

FanDuel Only:
Kelly Olynyk - $4,100- Strictly an upside play here, but Olynyk was poised to have a much bigger game his last go around had it not been for foul trouble. Olynyk is a guy who can make up ground for you elsewhere, or be a total zero. Play at your own risk, but don't be shocked if the overall winning lineup has Olynyk involved.

So that about does 'er. Wraps 'er all up. Please tell me if I've made some egregious error, or if I cause you to win $1,000,000 tonight.