Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks for FanDuel 1/15/14

 

Lately we've been combining DraftStreet and FanDuel picks because a decent amount of value was consistent across the two sites.  Today there seem to be clear distinctions in plays between the sites and we don't want to shortchange our readers. We come to ball, and not every site creates pricing equally. If you are reading advice columns that make blanket statements about who's a good play across the industry, be wary that subtle differences are there. One main reason for the separation is that DraftStreet seems to have price corrected for players facing the worst defensive teams (I'm looking at you Philly and Lakers).

Quick reminder about these picks. At DFSR we employ a system that seeks to gain the most points-per-dollar. When we give a recommendation, it’s because we believe that player has the best chance to meet or exceed his price. On any given the night the highest dollar player can be expected to score the most points, but that doesn’t always make him the best play for the money. Just something to keep in mind. On to the picks. 

 

Point Guard

For us, there are three PGs at the head of the pack here today and then a group of five literally all tied for that fourth spot.

Darren Collison $7600 - Has filled in for CP3 like a stud and the price hasn't caught up yet. Actually, hasn't come close to catching up. I think sometimes there is a tendency for people to avoid a dude like Collison because they remember not too long ago when he was like $4500 and the ideal punt. Now that is price has come up they might feel he is too expensive. This is not the case. We are still in buy low territory.

Kemba Walker $7200 - Oh man, he might have a field day. Like literally, this game might be what field day was like for a young Kemba Walker in grade school. Just a domination of every element of the game and other kids crying. If he returned 6x on this price I wouldn't be shocked.
Michael Carter-Williams $8200 - A value across both sites, MCW continues to be a daily fantasy force because he does a little of everything. The only thing I'm a little concerned about with our system's love of Carter-Williams is that Charlotte is abnormally bad in letting up blocks to opposing point guards and the data might be skewing MCW's projected outcome. Still a solid play, but is behind the first two dudes.

Our system has Damian Lillard, Goran Dragic, Kyrie Irving, Ricky Rubio and Trey Burke as dead ties in terms of value per dollar. I'd give the edge to Dragic for safety and Lillard for upside.

Quick addition Kendall Marshall $6700 - Been crushing this price and just is almost a lock for the minutes

 

Shooting Guard

Lot of interesting options here today.

Courtney Lee $4000 - Is the starting shooting guard for the Grizzlies and is doing everything he can to show that no one else should be playing there. Price hasn't come close to catching up. This is a must start.

Kevin Martin $5800 - We recommend him a lot and I'm always a little suspect because he just has almost no upside. But he's steady as can be, and at this price, against an opponent like the Kings we're in the range where he could pay 5X.

Monta Ellis $7600 - This game should have a nice pace to it and that favors Ellis. The Clippers are about league average against SGs except in the area of assists. They get knocked a bit in that category and Ellis has been handing them out this season. I like him a lot today.

Gerald Henderson $6400 - Not sure if you've heard, but Philly absolutely sucks on defense. It's true. This is more about opponent than Henderson himself, but the value is there.

Gerald Green $5500 - Looking for upside? Here you go. Green has been relatively quiet since he started filling in (again) for Bledsoe. Look for him to go off against the Lakers. I imagine a situation in which he is getting a ton of open looks around the perimeter. If the shot is falling this could be the play of the day.

 

Small Forward

 

Kawhi Leonard $5700 - He just seems so safe. Like clockwork he gets 30 minutes for the Spurs every single night and finds ways to meet and exceed his price. He is almost a must start for me tonight in GPPs because of the upside against Utah. Could be too much blowout risk but at our system's projection it is almost worth the gamble.

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist $4200 - A very nice punting option. He came back from injury and played 30 minutes last night against the Knicks. Watch to see if they plan on limiting his minutes tonight, but as long as he gets that run this is an amazing price for a starter.

Nic Batum $7500 - I don't love many of the Blazers' prices today except for Batum. He's proven that wearing the cast on his hand has absolutely no effect on his game. Cleveland sucks so he might be in store for a blowout, but I don't mind the risk on him.

Andre Iguodala $5600 - System likes him, but might be drawing too much on the earlier of the year. He's also spiked a couple of his games which is skewing his rating.

 

Power Forward

Power forward is consistently the most difficult position to fill on FanDuel for me because there always seem to be so many great options. It's the opposite of small forward. Today is no different. Going to be tough deciding which way to go.

Anthony Davis FD $9100 - If I'm spending big money anywhere today,  I'm avoiding the tippy top tier and getting Davis in there. He's playing at an insane level right now and Houston is not great against opposing power forwards, especially in the scoring, rebounding and shot-blocking departments. See what I'm getting at here?

Miles Plumlee $5100 - Has paid a minimum of 5x or more on this price six out his last nine games. He is always underpriced on this site. Find a way to play him.

Carlos Boozer $6000 - He's not missing Deng at all. (Update: But he might miss tonight with illness.)

Nene Hilario $5800 - He's back in the starting lineup and taking full advantage. This play is more about price than matchup because the Heat are actually good against PFs, but Hilario has been awesome since returning as a starter.

Patrick Patterson $4400 - Enjoying his time in Toronto right now for sure. Patterson is in the James Johnson, Kris Humphries "safe punt" category right now.

 

Center

Two clearcut options at center tonight and they are playing each other.  Our system has them even on value so go the way the money works. Both carry some risk with them, and aren't the most consistent guys in the whole world, but the multiplier is too much to get away from.

Al Jefferson $7900 - He torched the Knicks last night to the tune of 35/8/2 and tonight he gets an even worse (or better depending how you look at it) matchup in Philly.

Spencer Hawes $6900 - Don't see how Jefferson follows him out to the perimeter. Hawes could really put up some scoring numbers tonight.

Consider Joakim Noah $8200 - Also not missing Deng and gets a Vucevic-less Magic squad.

 

Who'd I miss? How'd I get totally wrong? Leave a comment down below or hit us up on Twitter @dailyfantasysr

   

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