Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks for DraftStreet and FanDuel 1/13/14

 

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Quick reminder about these picks. At DFSR we employ a system that seeks to gain the most points-per-dollar. When we give a recommendation, it’s because we believe that player has the best chance to meet or exceed his price. On any given the night the highest dollar player can be expected to score the most points, but that doesn’t always make him the best play for the money. Just something to keep in mind. On to the picks. 

 

Point Guard

 

Tony Parker DS $13375 FD $6600 - Fellow DFSR contributor Mister March and I were talking last night about lineup construction and he mentioned his hesitation in picking Tony Parker, who our system loved. He said, “Only Parker issue for me is minutes. He NEVER plays extra minutes.” This is an interesting consideration, and something we’ll probably tackle in an upcoming piece about tournament roster construction. But Parker almost never sees an added minutes bump in close games. This limits his ceiling considerably. Or it can be called, “Getting Pop’d.” Anyway, I love him tonight at these prices again. Blowout is in play, but Parker is a top pick.

Jameer Nelson DS $11525 FD $6000 - Speaking of blowouts, Orlando fucking blows. What I just gave you there is considered “expert analysis” and is why you read. Afflalo is questionable with an ankle injury. Vucevic needs his head checked. Oladipo is going to be good but is all over the place. Jameer is a solid play at these prices against Dallas if he can play through fourth quarter. There’s limited value in PG tonight and options all have issues. Jameer is no different.

Trey Burke DS $11209 FD $5700 - Speaking of potential pitfalls, Burke is a tournament play that I like because he has three areas of production (assists, rebounding, shot attempts) that are super steady from game-to-game. What keeps his price depressed is that he isn’t a good shooter (sub 40%) BUT when his shot is falling he crushes these prices. This is kind of thing will win you a tournament. I’d avoid him in cash games.

 

 

PG - DraftStreet Value

Kyle Lowry DS $15465 - Very enticing price on here today against Milwaukee. Brandon Knight isn't a terrible defender, but I see still see Lowry exploiting the epic trash dump that is the Milwaukee Buck team.

 

 

PG - FanDuel Value

John Wall FD $8500 - Chicago plays at a snail's pace, and I don't like him as much as Parker or Burke even, but if you can save other places, Wall is a nice way to spend a few extra bucks in a cash game.

 

Shooting Guard

 

Monta Ellis DS $14869 FD $7500 - Blowout in play, but Ellis could be in for a big game. Orlando really struggles with opposing shooting guards, allowing worse than league average production in just about every phase of the game. Monta could really go off. Going to be tough for me to get away from him tonight.

Giannis Antetokounmpo DS $8513 FD $4500 - Took me three tries to spell it, and I still can't say it, but here you go. The Greek Freak. Alphabet. Whatever you want to call him is (for) now playing shooting guard in Larry Drew's manic construction of an NBA starting 5. He has the ability to fill up the stat sheet and at these prices, its almost necessary to get him in there on upside alone.

Brian Roberts DS $9245 FD $4200 - Here is why I love this price on Roberts. While he is playing a top team in the Spurs, they are actually sneaky below average against PGs (where Roberts will be playing). Also, Roberts had two distinct and correctable problems in his first two games that kept him from really outstripping his dollar value. First game foul trouble and second game a bad shooting night. Avoiding these two things tonight will allow him to crush it. I love this play tonight.

 

SG - DraftStreet Value

Jordan Crawford DS 11,681 - Chucks with the best of 'em. Price getting to the point where he if he catches even a little bit of hot he is a great play.

JR Smith DS $8861 - A mess in real life. A great value here for tournament play.

 

SG - FanDuel Value

Marco Belinelli FD $ 4700 - Check on Manu. Both make nice value plays here tonight.

 

Small Forward

 

Trevor Ariza DS $11543 FD $5800 - We recommended him on Friday night and he was one of the plays of the night. His price hasn't adjusted and his upside is insane. Chicago doesn't have anyone to handle him. There is some risk as he can disappear in the offense, but at these salaries you kind of need to pull the trigger.

Khris Middleton DS $8590 FD $4800 - Gulp.

Richard Jefferson DS $7753 FD $3900 - I'm as surprised as you, but go back and look at his last couple of game logs. Did you look? Then you'll see what I mean. Jefferson is getting the minutes as long as Hayward is out. If Hayward is back, I actually like Gordon's price. Check the wire before the game.

Jeff Green DS $10835 FD $5800 - Gulp again.  

SF - DraftStreet Value

Mike Dunleavy DS $10038 - So cheap for a guy playing starter minutes who can get hot from behind the arc.

 

 

Power Forward

 

Derrick Favors DS $13237 FD $6500 - This is my top play for the day for the money. Denver has the worst interior defense in the league against opposing power forwards. Favors could be in for a monster. His price on FanDuel is much more enticing and he will be a must play for me on that site. DraftStreet its a little closer, but he's still our top forward value.

Boris Diaw DS $7014 FD $4100 - We recommended him yesterday, he paid off handsomely and his price actually dropped on DraftStreet. You know what to do.

Carlos Boozer $12568 $5900 - With Deng no longer around the Bulls have one less guy who can score. Enter Boozer, who stands to benefit just from being able to stand around on the court in the Bulls' "offense".

Tim Duncan DS $16499 FD $8100 - Got some rest last night near the end as the Spurs pulled away from the Wolves. Always hard to judge Spurs on back-to-backs (and has same issue as Parker above) but Duncan could really put up solid numbers against the 'Cans.

PF - DraftStreet Value

 Watch for Kenyon Martin $8329 and/or Amar'e Stoudemire $8922 if Tyson Chandler sits again 

PF - FanDuel Value

Some especially good deals on FD tonight at PF

Dirk Nowitzki FD $7500 - For what he's been doing, he probably gets paired with Favors tonight were it not for...

Kris Humphries FD $4200 - Yikes, just look at his game log. Should be a 100% start but won't be. (Center on DS)

Kenneth Faried FD $5400 - Has entered beast mode last few games.

Andrea Bargnani FD $5700 - Awful to watch in real life. Nice price still with Chandler out.

 

 

Center

 

Dwight Howard DS $18998  FD $9200 - It'll be interesting to see if Boston alters its starting lineup tonight to deal with Dwight. If the Celts keep going small, then watch out. Dwight could be in for a monster. Since starting Humphries and electing to go smaller, Boston has allowed double digit rebounds to the opposing center in 2/3 games (R Lopez 13, A Bogut 13, Hickson who's really a 4 playing 5 had 8.) Dwight is a bit better than these guys.

JJ Hickson DS $10820 FD $5800 - What a great price for Hickson, especially on DraftStreet. Utah is terrible in preventing opposing centers from getting to the rim. Hickson could be in for a big game. He's listed as a PF on FanDuel, but I like his price on that site, at that position as well. As long as he gets close to 30 minutes he's money in the bank at these salaries.

Jonas Valanciunas DS $11245 FD $5600 - This one has me worried, as I'm afraid our system is pulling a little too much from his production earlier in the year. But he's also run into some tougher matchups of late which have depressed his price a bit. I like starting him tonight as cheaper option with center not holding a ton of value tonight.

 

How'd I miss? How'd I get totally wrong? Leave a comment down below or hit us up on Twitter @dailyfantasysr

  

 

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