Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 2/21/16 (Early Slate)

Holy Sunday. I think this is the first post Super Bowl Sunday with an NBA slate. There's no way for me to verify this information so I'm just going to stick with it. It's a big one with ten games spread over a double slate. Take full advantage folks. Sundays are back to you sitting around all day watching sports.

It's so big in fact, and so evenly split that I went ahead and wrote up the early slate and the late slate separately. No need to pat me on the back. I already did plenty of that myself already. Check out the evening slate of picks here.

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POINT GUARD

Reggie Jackson - FD 6500 DK 6600
Opponent - NOP
FD Proj. Pts - 33.21 DK Proj. Pts - 34.52
First time in a long time I haven't led a picks article with Westbrook when he's playing on that slate. Not to dude's off the table, but I'm not sure he's anything like a must play. From a cash game perspective I really like Jackson here. He's such a high volume guy for the Pistons and has a fantastic matchup against the Pelicans who've been smoked by opposing point guards this season. The downside to Jackson is SVG caps those minutes right around 32 meaning his upside's trimmed just a hair. But that's reflected in the price. The shot attempts should be there for the guy and the scoring opportunities are what you're looking for when rostering RJ. I'm taking him also with the idea that he's more of a contrarian play on this slate.

Russell Westbrook - FD 10900 DK 11000
Opponent - CLE
FD Proj. Pts - 50.27 DK Proj. Pts - 52.05
He has the highest raw point expectation on the slate (not any hard-hitting number crunching needed for that kind of analysis) and even against a tougher defensive matchup like Cleveland, you have to seriously consider Russ. Good chance he plays a ton of minutes in what projects as the highest total for the slate. The game also projects to stay close meaning OKC could feel obligated to run him out for long stretches. There's no harder player to fade than Westbrook and Irving isn't a great defender. The price tag is high and this slate doesn't have a ton of cheap options which is the only reason he isn't a unanimous play.

Consider Emmanuel Mudiay

SHOOTING GUARD

J.R. Smith - FD 5100 DK 5300
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 23.91 DK Proj. Pts - 27.2
There's a good chance he plays a lot of minutes in this game. Iman Shumpert looks likely to sit out leaving what could heavy run all for Smith at the two. Looking at the recent game log, it may be tough to stomach rostering the guy. But he's struggled with some bad shooting games that have sunk his production. And sure, he isn't the safest guy in the world. But if he's looking at mid-to-upper 30's of run then you can easily play him at these prices.

Avery Bradley - FD 5600 DK 5200
Opponent - DEN
FD Proj. Pts - 26.05 DK Proj. Pts - 28.27
He's coming off two rather difficult matchups in the Jazz and Clippers, teams who are extra stingy against the opposing shooting guard. That isn't the case with Denver who appear to play a matador-style defensive scheme when it comes to the opposing two. They allow in the range of 10% more scoring than league average to the position. This is a great spot for Bradley against a bottom third team in D-efficiency. Look for mid-teens shot volume to get him to value.

SMALL FORWARD

P.J. Tucker - FD 4800 DK 5100
Opponent - SAS
FD Proj. Pts - 22.83 DK Proj. Pts - 24.27
Never easy rostering a guy against the Spurs mostly because they can take opponents and turn guys into ash and rubble. But I see Tucker as a cheap option today in line for a bunch of minutes if the Suns can keep it close. That's a big if of course, but is helped if Kawhi were to sit again. The Lakers gave the Spurs a run without the latter's best player and it isn't out of the question the Suns could as well. Tucker's minutes should be there almost regardless. The Suns are no strangers to getting blown out and P.J.'s run is relatively safe. He needs to score to really outstrip the price tag as well as get to the boards.

Marcus Morris - FD 5500 DK 5500
Opponent - NOP
FD Proj. Pts - 25.2 DK Proj. Pts - 27.24
This one's all about the matchup and the price. You are hard-pressed to roster Durant on this slate going up against Lebron and you'll need room for at least two big money guys at other positions. Taking Morris means other punts didn't open up at other positions. What I mean is, he's a necessary evil it if gets tough to save elsewhere because things didn't open up because of injuries, etc. Morris plays heavy minutes and see double digit shot attempts per game leading to an uptick in scoring over the short term. Like I said, he isn't a fantastic play, but the matchup is a good one and his price is still a bit depressed thanks to some early season poor shooting.

Kawhi Leonard is a top play if he's given a full bill of health. Conversely, if Kawhi sits again then you can safely play Kyle Anderson as a punt option

POWER FORWARD

Anthony Davis - FD 9900 DK 9700
Opponent - DET
FD Proj. Pts - 49.78 DK Proj. Pts - 50.53
I wrote before his last game that if you thought he'd see minutes in the uppers 30's against Philly then he was a must start. But you had to worry about the minutes a little. Well guess what? He got back to looking like vintage-ish Brow with a 34/7 line while throwing in some blocks and steals. He put up 22 shots on his way to a stellar game. This isn't as easy a matchup, but Detroit will be throwing out a combination of Anthony Tolliver and Tobias Harris at Davis, neither of whom is looked about as tough defensively. On this shorter slate I'm playing Davis nearly everywhere. The guy's built like a fortress. No way anything goes wrong here...

Jared Sullinger - FD 6000 DK 5700
Opponent - DEN
FD Proj. Pts - 29.7 DK Proj. Pts - 31.3
Can you trust the recent love Brad Stevens has given the guy? Ooh, I sure want to. The Celtics have jacked the front court minutes all around this season and Sullinger's recent minutes surge may just be a blip on the radar. But he's a per minute beast this season and could really put in work against a Denver team allowing about 5% more than average scoring to opposing power forwards. Could be a bit speculative at his price as he isn't exactly cheap and the minutes may get buzzed. Worth a flyer though and close to safe in cash games.

Keep an eye on the Phoenix Front Court. There could be minutes to go around for Mirza Teletovic, Jon Leuer and/or Kris Humprhies if Tyson Chandler were to sit.

CENTER

Andre Drummond - FD 8400 DK 8000
Opponent - NOP
FD Proj. Pts - 42.05 DK Proj. Pts - 42.82
There are a lot of big names for such a short slate of basketball. It's rare to have a four game run with so many high-priced superstars. Drummond falls in just below the upper tier crowd, but his pricing puts him as a distinct advantage today. There may not be a ton of punts on this slate, meaning you'll be forced to possibly middle out some lineups with guys like Andre and below. The Pelicans have been torched by opposing centers this season, especially in the scoring department. That's where Drummond needs to do his damage because I think the rebounds will for sure be there. Not the safest guy, but on this slate we need to target the best matchups.

Steven Adams - FD 4300 DK 4100
Opponent - CLE
FD Proj. Pts - 20.36 DK Proj. Pts - 20.73
It's a short slate so options are limited. If you don't go with Drummond and want to spend on one of the many superstars then Adams is the way to go. OKC may get forced to go smaller against Cleveland, but Adams should see enough minutes out of the five to creep towards value at these numbers. Mostly he'd fill a need to roster a center on the cheap who won't get completely dusted in minutes.

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