Boston Celtics guard Evan Turner, left, tries to block San Antonio Spurs forward Kawhi Leonard, right, in the fourth quarter of an NBA basketball game Sunday, Nov. 1, 2015, in Boston. (AP Photo/Steven Senne)
Welcome back for the first Post-ASB installment of the DFSR daily picks column. Thursday presents a short slate with just three games. All three matchups figure to be relatively low-possession affairs with at least one very-low Pace team in each game (and two of the three featuring a medium-Pace team as well). There are still some hidden value plays, with a couple of low-end punt/tourney play as well. Let’s have at it.
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Opponent - CHI
FD Proj. Pts - 35.51 DK Proj. Pts - 37.7
Uncle Drew represents the best value at the PG position on a night with limited options. He’s high-end, but not elite from a price-point perspective. The DFSR projections show a high floor and quite a bit of upside. The matchup is also good – the Bulls are near the bottom of the league (26th) in terms of allowing PG fantasy scoring (Defense vs. Position or “DvP”). I’ll roll him out in all formats.
Opponent - SAS
FD Proj. Pts - 43.61 DK Proj. Pts - 45.32
On many nights, I’d consider CP3 a luxury pick. Tonight the high price is justifiable, even with a tough matchup against the Spurs (4th in DvP vs PGs). His projected multiple is a 3rd-ranked 4.4x on FD (more on 2nd in bit). On DK, he’s by far the best value play due to his lower price. Hard to pass him up, and you should be able to make the numbers work with bargains a few other places.
If your stomach for risk needs feeding, our projection system likes Derrick Rose a lot on FD (he’s the previously-mentioned 2nd-ranked PG). I absolutely refuse to recommend him for cash games though, and I’d stay away entirely on DK where his price is a bit steeper.
Opponent - SAS
FD Proj. Pts - 26.1 DK Proj. Pts - 28.29
Mr. Crawford is the top-rated SG on both FD and DK, and on the former it’s not even close. The matchup sucks, but he runs mostly against the opponent’s 2nd unit, and we like his ridiculous 5x floor over the last 7 games. He’s also spiked over 7x even as his price has ticked up. This is an across-the-board plug-and-play.
Opponent - LAC
FD Proj. Pts - 22.25 DK Proj. Pts - 25.22
Playing for the Spurs is generally easier than playing against them, and Thursday is no exception. Where the Clippers SGs are facing the top-rated DvP, the Clips themselves are dead- average. At these prices we see D. Green (the Texas version) near or above a 5x on both sites, with plenty of upside. He’s been playing a lot better lately, with just one dud in the last six, and we see a high floor here as well.
The DFSR projections also like J.J. Redick on both FD and DK, but I’m hesitant to stack the two against such a tough opponent, especially in cash games.
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Opponent - LAC
FD Proj. Pts - 37.68 DK Proj. Pts - 39.26
Mr. Two-Way went off last week (that may not sound quite right taken out of context) even as his price down-ticked on DK. He’s the best SF value on both sites, and again, it’s not even close. The Clips are statistically decent defending SFs, but I can’t get the thought of Paul Pierce trying to stop Kawhi out of my head (and concentrating well enough to write). Good floor with lots of upside. Roll with him in all formats.
Opponent - WAS
FD Proj. Pts - 34.65 DK Proj. Pts - 36.88
The truly baby-faced Hayward (did he actually try growing facial hair at one point?) is another slightly-above-average investment that I feel compelled to recommend. He’s not as much of a value play on FD as a very safe place to invest some dollars. On DK at the lower price he’s an absolute must. Why is the system so high on him? Look no further than the Wizards’ league-worst DvP on SFs. He might well go off for a 6x, which at this price point is huge.
After just mocking him, I am going to point out that Paul Pierce is a possible punt play given his cost on both DK and FD.
Opponent - CLE
FD Proj. Pts - 19.33 DK Proj. Pts - 19.86
Perhaps my favorite play of the night on FD, the Bulls’ first big off the bench is going to get enough minutes to earn his keep, even on DK. The floor is rock-solid, with the potential for a massive multiple. The matchup is not great, but don’t let that keep you from getting this low-cost option into all your lineups.
Opponent - WAS
FD Proj. Pts - 35.51 DK Proj. Pts - 35.98
Mt. Gobert’s running mate is far-and-away the top PF value on DK, and not far behind Portis on FD. Favors has been an absolute beast over the last five, spiking twice for 6x, with just one dud. At the same time, his price hasn’t moved. The Jazz/Wiz interior matchup is gonna’ be a slugfest, and it’ll be interesting to see how up-and-down the game is, with Washington sporting the 4th highest Pace in the league and the Jazz the absolute lowest. Still, this is just too much value to pass up
I’d be remiss if I didn’t at least mention Tristan Thompson. The system likes him as a safe low-investment play on DK and a major value on FD.
Opponent - CLE
FD Proj. Pts - 39.04 DK Proj. Pts - 39.66
The clear choice at the position for the night on FD, Pau’s also a safe investment on DK. CLE is decent against Centers, ranking 10th at DvP. Unfortunately there are limited options tonight, and no terrific matchups. The floor’s high here, with the potential for a nice spike, even at this salary level.
Have to mention that the system loves Tim Duncan on DK at his low price – but he’s in the same can’t-recommend-in-good-conscience category as D-Rose for cash games.
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View Comments
Yeah! Basketball is back :)
Irving, Burke, Hood, Crawford, James, Hayward, Gibson, Dudley, Gortat
Any thoughts?
Notwithstanding developments today, I already endorsed Irving, Crawford, and Hayward. I like Hood - decent floor. I'm actually looking at playing LeBron in some lineups to make the cash work - he's pretty reliable, which is key for elite salaries.
As for the others, Burke's in play in the trade deadline, so I'd plan to steer away. Gibson has done less with more, I've been disappointed with him since his minutes went up. Expected more, and really like Portis who's significantly cheaper.
If you have the $$, I'd avoid Gortat since he's going against the Jazz. Of the big guys in that gane, Favors is the best option. Try and pay up for Gasol if the ##s allow.
HTH.
LOL Gortat had 49 and Favors was the biggest bust of the night until Leonard did not play. Tough one.
I am now officially fallible. Prior to that, other than my wife, you couldn't prove it!
If it helps, I had Favors _and_ Kawhi in at least one lineup.
Sadly, these are projections (I can tell you know it since you're keeping your sense of humor about it). If you ever get the specific numbers in advance, LMK, we can make lots of money together. :)
I'm skeptical on Burke's minutes and like Kawhi for the money
Cash or tourney?
Allen.... tough to lock into anything until after the trade deadline at 3pm tomorrow imo. Guys might get moved and sit and often guys get moved and it messes with the clubhouse/chemistry in short term. Could have guys from the Cavs, Clippers, Bulls and Wizards on the move before tip tomorrow.
PS and Trey Burke has been mentioned as well in deals.
Thanks Thomas. As always, picks are subject to new info. Tomorrow most of all!
Be sure and check out the Daily Update posted early PM ET and ensuing discussion via comments.
Picks are based on info at time of posting.
Cash. Thanks for the feedback.
I've literally been waiting for days to see this article. Love what you are doing. Best info out there!
Thanks! It went out a little later than we like, but that happens. Appreciate the positive feedback.
I'm just doing a couple days a week, so be sure to check in on James' and Doug's picks (they're also the proprietors and the developers of the DFSR projection system) as well as the afternoon updates.
And of course, if you're not already a subscriber, I encourage you to strongly consider it. And look out for imminent changed on that front.
Might want to avoid cash game plays today as a lot of people are going to have similar picks w the lack of options. Myself I usually never pick a cash game unless we have at least 5 games (possibly 4 depending on the games)
Mike, I understand where you're coming from, but for me it's a question of level of comfort. I like the cash game lineups I'm generating tonight, in part because I'm pretty comfortable with some options really well suited to cash tonight (high floor, lower risk).
That said, short slates do always present fewer options so you're going to have more overlap with others' lineups. That means it's just a couple of slots that'll make you stand out, which "feels" like tourney play when you're counting on a couple of lesser-owned guys to go off to really cash. Tonight you'll be looking for those three guys that differentiate your lineup, but they won't be lower-end high risk guys. Like I said, it ultimately comes down to your level of comfort.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts and contributing to the discussion. We're really happy to see an active DFSR community developing.
Tend to disagree here. With our system, small slates tend to help get the money in good. Mistakes cascade much worse with less options.
Any updates on the optimizer?
We are very close. Basically now we are having some issues converting to mobile. Devs feverishly working on it.