Daily Fantasy NFL Football Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, and DraftPot - Week 13

Editor's note: Get ready for Raybon's insightful article on NFL's Week 13! He's done an amazing job breaking down the top plays of the week, but obviously, he could never include every single great play. If you want point projections for individual players? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get started with our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftpot.

As we come upon Week 13 of the NFL season, I think it’s a good time to revisit sample size. While it’s true that generally we want the largest sample size possible to inform out decisions, this is not always the case, especially when it comes to analyzing defensive matchups.

For example, through the first seven weeks of the season, the Texans had allowed four QBs to top 25 fantasy points and had allowed five multi-TD games. Since Week 8, the most yards the Texans have given up are 228, and they have given up one TD over the past four games. Some defenses simply take a while to learn the same and then improve, while others suffer injuries that cause a major drop-off. Either way, this is a reminder to not discount recent trends in defensive statistics, even if the sample is small.

Let’s get into the Week 13 plays.

QUARTERBACKS

Cam Newton - FD 9000 DK 7400
Opponent- NO
A top three fantasy QB on the season, Newton draws the Saints with his Panthers sporting a substantial team total of over 27 points. The Saints defense has allowed a passer rating of 115.9, over 10 points higher than the next worst team. They have given up 38 offensive TDs this season, and Newton is third in the league with 27 total TDs scored. It goes without saying, but the Saints have allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs by a landslide.

Andy Dalton - FD 8000 DK 6400
Opponent- CLE
Dalton goes on the road to face a Browns team coming off a short week that has allowed the second most points per game in the NFL. The Bengals; team total is 26.5, one of Week 13’s highest. While Dalton has scored the seventh most fantasy points per game among QBs, the Browns have allowed the seventh most. Cleveland ranks 29th in pass defense DVOA.

Jay Cutler - FD 7000 DK 5100
Opponent- SF
Cutler should offer good value in a game where the Bears have a Vegas implied total of 25 points, four higher than their season average. The 49ers have struggled against the pass all season, and currently rank 31st in pass defense DVOA. Where the 49ers have really struggled on defense is on the road, where they’ll be this weekend. San Francisco has allowed a 121.3 passer rating and a 12:2 TD to interception ratio on the road, compared to an 82.8 pass rating and 5:5 TD to interception ratio at home.

Ryan Fitzpatrick - FD 7500 DK 5200
Opponent- NYG
Remember how bad the Saints defense is? Well, the Giants defense is the only team to give up more passing yards per game than the Saints, as Big Blue is allowing an astronomical 309.2 yards through the air per contest. Fresh off of a 277 yard, four TD game, Fitzpatrick should be able to keep the momentum going against a defense that has given up the fourth most fantasy points to opposing QBs and ranks 25th in pass defense DVOA.

 

RUNNING BACKS

Jonathan Stewart - FD 7200 DK 5300
Opponent- NO
With the Panthers as sizeable favorites facing a struggling Saints defense, J-Stew is squarely in play as one of the top RB options of the week. The Saints rank 29th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the second most fantasy points per game to the position. Perhaps more telling is the fact that the Saints have allowed 238.6 total yards per game to RBs over their last three games. Stewart has received at least 20 carries in seven straight games.

Doug Martin - FD 7600 DK 5900
Opponent- ATL
Averaging over 35 percent more fantasy points per game when his team is a favorite this season, Martin will face the Falcons as a two point home favorite this weekend. The Falcons rank 19th in run defense DVOA and have allowed 15 total TDs to RBs, most in the league. Martin is averaging over 20 touches per game this season.

DeAngelo Williams - FD 7200 DK 5600
Opponent- IND
Williams has recorded over 100 total yards and/or a TD in four of five starts this season (as well as another 100-yard game in relief of Le’Veon Bell. This week Williams’ Steelers are seven point favorites against a Colts team allowing the ninth most rushing yards per game in the NFL (115.1). Williams not only offers value because he is in a good offense in a favorable matchup, but because he rarely comes off the field; he leads all RBs in snaps played over the last four weeks (93%).

David Johnson - FD 5900 DK 3400
Opponent- STL
Rostering inexpensive RBs projected to see heavy volume is a +EV strategy in NFL DFS, and Johnson fits the bill. With Chris Johnson out, Johnson – who has scored seven TDs in only 54 touches -- will assume lead back duties. He will face a middling, inconsistent Rams run defense that has allowed the 12th most rushing yards per game. The Cardinals are 5.5-point favorites this Sunday.

OVERLAY ALERT AND FREE ACCESS TO OUR PROJECTIONS!

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WIDE RECEIVERS

Antonio Brown - FD 9000 DK 8600
Opponent- IND
The most consistent WR in fantasy football for over two years now, Brown’s price is $300 lower than it was when the season started on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Brown is second in the NFL in receiving yards per game (108.4) and third in receptions per game (7.7). The Colts rank a middling 17th in pass defense DVOA.

Alshon Jeffery - FD 7700 DK 6900
Opponent- SF
Jeffery should be able to feast on a 49ers defense that allows the fifth most fantasy6 points per game to WRs and struggles mightily on the road, as previously mentioned. Jeffery has at least 11 targets, 7 catches, and 90 yards in four of five games this season; the one game where he failed to reach those numbers, he played a limited amount of snaps battling an injury.

Eric Decker - FD 7200 DK 6300
Opponent- NYG
With 80 yards and/or a TD in every game, Decker has quietly been one of the most consistent fantasy WRs this season. In fact, there have only been two games where Decker has failed tor each the end zone. As I mentioned earlier, the Giants are allowing the most passing yardage per game in the NFL. Due to lining up primarily in the slot, Decker will see a lot of CB Trevin Wade, a 2012 seventh round pick that has graded out as replacement level by PFF.

Brandon LaFell - FD 6600 DK 4800
Opponent- PHI
The stars are aligning for LaFell to have a big game against an Eagles defense allowing the most fantasy points per game to WRs, but the third-least to TEs. The Eagles just lost CB Nolan Carroll, leaving them to start the repeatedly torched Byron Maxwell and rookie Eric Rowe (he of the Calvin Johnson Thanksgiving abuse) on the outside. The Patriots like to attack opponent’s weaknesses, and LaFell stands to be the beneficiary this week.

If you want to read more about DFS strategy check out TheSportsGeek.com's DFS strategy articles.

TIGHT END

Greg Olsen - FD 6600 DK 6400
Opponent- NO
It seems like you can say this about them at any position, but no team has given up more fantasy points to TEs than the Saints. Meanwhile, Olsen is tied for the league lead in targets among TEs. The Panthers have a robust team total of over 27, and only six players in all of football have more red zone targets than Olsen.

Delanie Walker - FD 6000 DK 5700
Opponent- JAC
Quietly, Walker is leading all TEs in receptions per game at an impressive 5.9, which extrapolates to 94 catches over a 16 game season. Walker has amassed the third most receiving yards at the position, while the Jaguars have allowed the third most receiving yards to the position. Walker posted an 8-109 line – his only 100-yard game of the season – when these teams met in Week 11.

Travis Kelce - FD 6200 DK 4700
Opponent- OAK
Kelce will face a Raiders defense allowing the third most fantasy points per game to TEs. The Raiders 11 TDs allowed to TEs are the most in the league. Kelce is in the top five among TEs in both targets and yardage, and has the sixth most receptions at the position.

 

DEFENSE

Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals will face the Rams as 5.5-point favorites with the Rams’ team total below 19. The Cards have been a top-five fantasy defense this season, and should put up similar numbers against a Rams team allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses.

Cincinnati Bengals
As 9.5-point favorites in Cleveland, only the Patriots have a larger spread in their favor in Week 13. The Browns’ team total is a measly 17 points. While the Bengals have been a top-eight fantasy defense this season, the Browns have allowed the third most fantasy points to opposing defenses.

Seattle Seahawks
The matchup is not great for Seattle, but they are a top-three fantasy defense this season whose price is somewhat depressed. Seattle should be able to get some sacks off Teddy Bridgewater, who has taken the fifth most sacks in the league. The Seattle D is also bolstered by the effect of their stellar return unit led by Tyler Lockett.

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