Daily Fantasy NFL Football Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, and DraftPot - Week 11

Editor's note: Get ready for Raybon's insightful article on NFL's week 11! He's done an amazing job breaking down the top plays of the week, but obviously, he could never include every single great play. If you want point projections for individual players? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Starsdraft.

Last week reinforced the notion that volume is paramount for a running back. Despite seemingly tough matchups, both Jeremy Langford and Charcandrick West exploded for over 100 total yards and multiple TDs. Interestingly, both backs took screen passes 80 yards or more to the house. Passing game work is extremely valuable to a running back, because there’s a lot more room for good things to happen. Whereas a running back has to make his way around a ton of bodies at the line of scrimmage when handling a conventional running play, he often will have blockers in space when he catches the ball. Both this week and as the season progresses, be sure not to overlook RBs who get passing game volume that are in seemingly tough matchups. They’ll be very low-owned in tournaments and have upside that the majority of the field is not accounting for.

 

QUARTERBACKS

Cam Newton - FD 8600 DK 6900
Opponent- WAS
The QB2 and QB5 on FanDuel and DraftKings, respectively, Newton will take the field at home against the Redskins with his Panthers’ Vegas implied total sitting at 26 points, which bodes well for a QB that accounts for 81 percent of his team’s offensive TDs. Newton has scored multiple TDs in eight straight games, and the Redskins have allowed multiple passing TDs in four straight.

Derek Carr - FD 7700 DK 6300
Opponent- DET
Carr has been a top-10 fantasy QB this season, and travels to Detroit to take on a defense ranked 31st in the NFL in opponent passer rating and 28th in the NFL in pass defense DVOA. Not surprisingly, the Lions have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs. With two of Detroit’s top three cornerbacks (Rashean Mathis and Josh Wilson) now on the injured reserve, Carr’s matchup should be ripe for the picking. His Raiders have a healthy team total of over 25 points.

Tyrod Taylor - FD 7200 DK 5200
Opponent- NE
A statement that is usually reserved for running backs rings true for Taylor: he Is game-script-dependent. Over his last three games (all wins), Taylor has thrown the ball 17, 12, and 27 times, respectively. This week, with his team installed as a seven point underdog in a game with a 48.5 over/under (tied for Week 11’s highest), Taylor is likely to throw a lot more than he has been: in two losses, he sports an average of 36 pass attempts per game. In his last game against the Patriots, Taylor amassed 285 total yards and four TDs.

Mark Sanchez - FD 6400 DK 5000
Opponent- TB
It’s a good sign when a backup QB steps in and his team’s Vegas total is 25.5 points, which is the case for Sanchez this weekend against the Bucs. Tampa Bay has struggled to defend the pass, allowing the fourth-worst passer rating in the league (101.8). The Bucs rank 24th in pass defense DVOA, and it would not be a surprise to see Sanchez have a more productive game than Sam Bradford had all season. While Bradford owned a 3.3-percent TD rate and averaged 6.9 yards per attempt, Sanchez’s TD rate last season with the Eagles was 4.5 and his yards per attempt stood at 7.8.

 

RUNNING BACKS

Devonta Freeman - FD 9100 DK 8400
Opponent- IND
The fantasy RB1, Freeman has averaged 26.2 touches per game since taking over as the Falcons starting RB in Week 3. Freeman leads the league in touchdowns, carries inside the red zone, and carries inside the opponent’s 10-yard line. With his team boasting a Vegas implied total of 26.8 and facing a Colts team permitting the third-most rushing TDs (9) in the NFL to RBs, Freeman has monster TD upside coming off of the bye.

Adrian Peterson - FD 8900 DK 6800
Opponent- GB
Peterson has been fed 29 or more touches in eight straight games, has gone over 100 total yards in four straight, and has gone over 100 rushing yards in three straight. A matchup with the Packers is no longer a game script nightmare for opposing RBs, and Peterson’s Vikings are actually a slight favorite (-1) in this game. The Packers have allowed the ninth-most rushing yards per game (116.2) in the NFL.

Charcandrick West - FD 7100 DK 4500
Opponent- SD
West has burst on the scene with three straight games with over 100 total yards and a TD, averaging 25 touches for 137 total yards and 1.33 TDs over that span. He has a great matchup against a Chargers defense allowing 122.9 rushing yards per game (27th in NFL) and 4.9 yards per carry (30th). San Diego has given up the second-most fantasy points in the league to opposing RBs.

Darren McFadden - FD 6800 DK 5000
Opponent- MIA
McFadden sputtered last week against a Tampa Bay defense allowing the 12
th-fewest rushing yards per game (101.0) in the league, but should have more success against a Dolphins defense that allows the second-most rushing yards per game in the league (135.6). McFadden has seen at least 20 touches in each of his last four games, and getting Tony Romo back should open up more rushing lanes because Miami’s defenses will now have to respect the pass – an element that was lacking in all of McFadden’s starts this season.

 

WIDE RECEIVERS

Calvin Johnson - FD 8100 DK 7200
Opponent- OAK
Johnson is averaging 9.7 targets per game and has caught at least five passes for 50 yards in eight straight games. In Week 11, he will face Raiders defense giving up the second-most passing yards per game (293.2) in the NFL. Because the Lions have a poor defense, Johnson is likely to get a ton of opportunity as the Lions offense tries to keep up with the suddenly potent passing attack of the Raiders. The 48-point over/under in Lions-Raiders is tied for Week 11’s highest.

Michael Crabtree - FD 6500 DK 6000
Opponent- DET
Making a case for comeback player of the year, Crabtree has converted an average of 9.4 targets per game into averages of 5.7 receptions, 71.8 yards, and 0.6 TDs per game. As I mentioned earlier, the Lions rank 28th in pass defense DVOA and are banged up in the secondary. Commanding a 24-percent target market share and with Amari Cooper continuing to demand attention, Crabtree should be able to post another productive fantasy game this Sunday in Detroit.

Danny Amendola - FD 6100 DK 4000
Opponent- BUF
Julian Edelman and Dion Lewis accounted for 38 percent of the Patriots targets this season, and Amendola will pick up some of the slack. Last week, he drew 11 targets, catching 10 for 79 yards. Amendola has already proven he can produce with volume, as he went for a 7-105 line on nine Week 6 targets and 8-86-1 on nine Week 7 targets. The Bills have been below average in terms of fantasy points allowed to WRs this season.

Stevie Johnson - FD 5600 DK 3900
Opponent- KC
With Keenan Allen and Malcom Floyd out, Johnson will have to step in as San Diego’s number-one WR. In his last game, he played 100 percent of the snaps and saw ten targets, both season-highs. Although they have been better as of late thanks to cornerback Sean Smith, the Chiefs are still allowing the second-most fantasy points in the NFL to WRs. Johnson should avoid Smith for most of the afternoon, as he
tends to line up in the slot.

 

TIGHT END

Rob Gronkowski - FD 8400 DK 7700
Opponent- BUF
As I mentioned earlier, Edelman and Lewis accounted for 38 percent of the Patriots’ targets (and 35 percent of their red zone targets), which means Gronk is likely in for a bump in workload as the team’s number-one option. Last time these two teams met, Gronkowski torched the Bills for a 7-113-1 line on 13 targets.

Delanie Walker - FD 5700 DK 4800
Opponent- JAC
(Thursday)
Walker has been one of the league’s most consistent TEs this season, sporting averages of 5.6 catches and 63.5 yards per game. He has caught at least six passes in five-of-eight games on the year. The Jaguars are ranked 30th in pass defense DVOA and have been a below-average team at defending TEs.

Eric Ebron - FD 5400 DK 3500
Opponent- OAK
Giving up the third-most fantasy points in the league to the position, the Raiders defense is a prime target for TEs. Ebron is coming off an eight-target game, and has at least five targets in every game he’s finished. With the Raiders allowing the second-most passing yards per game and Lions-Raiders tied for the week’s highest over/under, Ebron should be able to rack up enough production to pay off his price tag.

 

DEFENSE

Seattle Seahawks
A top-two fantasy defense this season, the Seahawks are at home against the Blaine-Gabber-led 49ers as 12.5-point favorites – the week’s largest spread by over five points. The 49ers’ point total is miniscule at under 14 points. Not much more needs to be said.

Carolina Panthers
Installed as a touchdown favorite at home against the Redskins, Carolina has the pleasure of bringing Kirk Cousins back down to earth. Cousins is turnover-prone, with four multi-interceptions games already this season. After sporting a team total of over 25 points last week, the Redskins team total this week is under 20. The Panthers have been a top-six fantasy defense this year.

New York Jets
The Jets travel to Houston as 2.5-point favorites in a matchup of teams that may both be without their starting QBs. The over/under is currently off as of this writing, but did open at 41.5, indicating a defensive battle. The Jets are ranked first in run defense DVOA and sixth in pass defense DVOA, and should be able to post a solid fantasy outing regardless of whether they face Brian Hoyer or T.J. Yates.

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