Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftPot - 11/14/15

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POINT GUARD

Brandon Knight - FD 7000 DK 7100
Opponent - DEN FD Proj. Pts - 32.78 DK Proj. Pts - 34.85
Knight was one of the top guys in our system when the Suns faced off against the Clippers, and that will continue against the Nuggets, who rank in the bottom third of the league in terms of defensive efficiency. Denver has allowed the 2nd most FanDuel points per game to opposing point guards this season, and with Markieff Morris and his big pile of shots up for grabs, Knight is my top overall PG play of the day on these prices.

Mo Williams - FD 6100 DK 6300
Opponent - MIL FD Proj. Pts - 27.77 DK Proj. Pts - 30
Williams has been one of the steadiest forces in daily fantasy basketball recently, averaging roughly 35 minutes and 35 fantasy points in his last 4 games. On these prices? That's an incredible steal. The Bucks have been basically league average in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing point guards, but their overall terrible defense (the 4th worst efficiency in the league) seems to be making up for their 2nd lowest PACE. It's not as clear cut a play as it would normally be here, but I still like Mo as a high floor guy with plenty of upside.

John Wall - FD 9200 DK 8900
Opponent - ORL FD Proj. Pts - 42.57 DK Proj. Pts - 43.75
It might feel a little risky after Wall's terrible outing against OKC, but this game shouldn't head in that direction. The Magic are way less likely to blow the Wiz out than the Thunder were, and they've allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season (as opposed to the Thunder, who rank 22nd). I really like Wall best if Beal is out again. With Beal out, Wall put up 13 shots in 25 minutes when he had been averaging about 16-17 shots in 35+ minutes in recent games before that. More looks should mean more fantasy output, and I think Wall is a safe play that many will overlook tonight.

Shabazz Napier - FD 3700 DK 3200
Opponent - WAS FD Proj. Pts - 16.67 DK Proj. Pts - 18.01
Take a look to see if Napier is starting today. Napier logged a very effective 30 minutes with Oladipo out for concussion symptoms on Thursday, but as of this writing, has started off very slow against the stout Utah defense. Napier is pretty scoring dependent, and the 22 points from the field that he scored against the Lakers might not continue against John Wall and the Wiz, but it doesn't even need to for him to pay these prices running away.

SHOOTING GUARD

Eric Bledsoe - FD 8500 DK 8100
Opponent - DEN FD Proj. Pts - 40.16 DK Proj. Pts - 41.67
A Jon Leuer missed layup from a triple-double on Thursday, Bledsoe has been one of the most reliable fantasy forces in the early season for one main reason: his shots per minute have gone through the roof. Feeling like it's finally "his team," Bledsoe's shooting 30% more shots per minute than he did in the 2014-2015 season, giving him a drastically higher floor and ceiling than he had last year. While his price is starting to catch up, it's still not there yet. He's also been an active passer recently, putting up 8 or more assists in 3 of his last 4 games. Meanwhile, Denver was one of the very worst in the league against shooting guards in 2014-2015 (allowing 11% more scoring and 22% more rebounding), and have picked up where they left off, allowing the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing twos in 2015 so far. Love Bledsoe in every format.

James Harden - FD 10000 DK 10100
Opponent - DAL FD Proj. Pts - 45.17 DK Proj. Pts - 47.71
Another guy you can anchor your lineup around tonight, Harden has averaged better than 40 minutes a game in his last 4. An on ball point guard was supposed to slow Harden down this season, but he's actually averaged 12% more shots per minute than he did in 2014-2015. Wesley Matthews looks to be back from his minutes restriction, but Harden's shooting enough as is priced affordably enough compared to the other superstars that he'll be a mainstay in my 50/50 lineups for Saturday. This just in: Howard is out tomorrow night. Harden everywhere with the increased shots.

Giannis Antetokounmpo - FD 7000 DK 7300
Opponent - CLE FD Proj. Pts - 32.42 DK Proj. Pts - 33.53
If Denver has been bad against opposing shooting guards, the Cavaliers have been catastrophic. They've allowed 49.6 fantasy points a game to opposing shooting guards, a full 4 fantasy points more than 2nd place. That's bad, in case you're wondering. Now, some of that is the fact that they've been banged up at the position, but nobody ever looked at JR Smith's imminent return and got psyched up for a tough defensive match-up. Now, Giannis has been pretty erratic recently, but if there's a time to buy low on him, this sure looks like it.

Keep an eye on Evan Fournier. He's been more than solid on the last two nights with Oladipo out.

Another fantastic punt play: Gary Neal. The guy to target if Beal misses this game, but you can ignore him otherwise. Like Napier, Neal is highly scoring dependent, but he actually lost some minutes in a blow-out to OKC. I think what we saw from him in his last start is his floor while he's in the starting five.

SMALL FORWARD

Danilo Gallinari - FD 6500 DK 6200
Opponent - PHX FD Proj. Pts - 29.14 DK Proj. Pts - 31.63
Gallinari looks like the safest play on the board at the small forward position today from a points per dollar perspective for a couple of reasons. First, he's locked into his 36 minute rotation right now, and boy has he been making the most of it. He's paid 5x or better on these prices in four of his last five games, and as of this writing, he's put up 20 fantasy points in the first half against the Houston Rockets. Today he'll get one of the best match-ups in the league. Phoenix has played the 2nd fastest PACE in the entire league, and 4% more scoring and 12% more rebounding to opposing small forwards.

LeBron James - FD 10200 DK 9900
Opponent - MIL FD Proj. Pts - 47.32 DK Proj. Pts - 49.09
King James has been one of the steadiest producers in the big money realm in recent games, and like Harden, he's still very reasonably priced. He's averaged 49 fantasy points in the 6 games he's played since November's begun, and there's no sign that that will stop tonight against the Bucks. He's shooting 12% more shots per minute than he did last season, largely due to the absence of Kyrie, and there's been no production decline anywhere else. The Bucks wind up being a relatively league average match-up, here, as their slow PACE is counteracted by their awful defense. It's tough to imagine him truly going off due to the fewer possessions, but I think he's still a nice way to invest a good chunk of salary, especially if some nice punt plays come along.

Tobias Harris - FD 6500 DK 5900
Opponent - WAS FD Proj. Pts - 30.55 DK Proj. Pts - 32.2
With 'Dipo out, Harris has played 37 and 40 minutes, and put up positively huge production. He's averaged nearly 6x points per dollar in the last two days, and has been crashing the boards with a vengeance. It's interesting, because Harris doesn't really see any increase in usage with Oladipo missing, but the extra minutes are enough to push him through to another level in terms of total production. And the Wizards? Dead last in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing small forwards this season. Harris is a monster upside play if he winds up snagging these minutes again.

Keep an eye on the Brad Beal situation. If he's out, Otto Porter was looking pretty good before the Thunder ran away with things.

POWER FORWARD

Kenneth Faried - FD 7000 DK 6400
Opponent - PHX FD Proj. Pts - 29.79 DK Proj. Pts - 30.28
He's looking like the only reasonable power forward play at the position among guys outside the punt class. Though, to be real, it might just be a night where you want to punt away. Faried is a guy who goes through his peaks and valley, but he's looking like he's in all-peak mode at the moment. You know Faried is feeling it when he's putting balls in the air, and with 16 shots through the first three quarters of this game against the Rockets, he's feeling it. I've already detailed Phoenix's fast pace, and that should help Faried here as well. Throw in the fact that Morris will either be out or hobbled, and this could be another big one for the Manimal.

Aaron Gordon - FD 3800 DK 4000
Opponent - WAS FD Proj. Pts - 18.73 DK Proj. Pts - 19.54
Power forward is a mess today. Like a big time mess. There are guys who are either too expensive, in bad match-ups, or both. Gordon is a speculative play for sure because last night was one of the first/only times he's seen minutes anything like what he got last night against the Jazz. He rolled 27 minutes and filled up the stat sheet with a 10/5/3/4/1 line that more than pays the day at these prices. I don't think he'll draw the start again, but if he's a better fit than Frye at the four, then he could be in line for these kinds of minutes with Dipo out.

Clint Capela - FD 4600 DK 4800
Opponent - DAL FD Proj. Pts - 21.64 DK Proj. Pts - 22.01
Well, he qualifies as a center on FanDuel, but he looks like a great play regardless of where you play him. The last time Dwight sat Capela put up a monster 13/12/2 with 4 blocks in just 24 minutes. At a desperately bad position, it's hard to imagine playing anyone else on DraftKings tonight.

Keep an eye on Markieff Morris. If he sits with this hamstring issue, Jon Leuer might be in line for increased minutes. He's been very productive on a per-minute basis, and I'd like him in a nice match-up with the erratic Denver front court. I could also see a scenario in which Terrence Jones has a huge night in increased minutes with Dwight out. He was absolutely unreal in limited minutes against the Nugs.

CENTER

On FanDuel, I'm going Clint Capela.
Jahlil Okafor - FD 6700 DK 7100
Opponent - SAS FD Proj. Pts - 32.87 DK Proj. Pts - 33.33
It feels like a big tournament play for sure, but our projection system remains intrigued here. He's put up some huge games against three solid front courts (CHI, TOR, and ORL), and shoots enough for a bad Philly team that you could see him getting enough looks to make him worth your while. Holy moly, looking at this more closely, Okafor has shot an astounding 65 times in his last 3 games. And the Sixers were blown out in each of them. In fact, it looks like these low 30s minutes are his floor minutes, and he has upside for more when the Sixers miracle their way into a close game. On a shallow night for center, this might just be the play.

Zaza Pachulia - FD 5500 DK 5600
Opponent - HOU FD Proj. Pts - 25.73 DK Proj. Pts - 26.16
His minutes can get weird on you, but Zaza has played 31 minutes in consecutive games and put up nice fantasy totals in each, averaging a 14/13/2 on a very affordable price. While Houston isn't the best match-up normally for big men, Zaza should have a nice time against a slightly undermuscled Dwightless front-court. On a dreary night at the position, he might be the safest guy going even if Okafor has more upside.

Also considered: Tyson Chandler

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