Value and Sleeper Picks for Daily Fantasy NFL Football for FanDuel, DraftKings, and DraftPot - Week 7

It's another value picks and sleepers article for the 2015 NFL season! With a couple of weeks under our belts, some players are already undervalued on DraftKings and FanDuel. Roles change more rapidly in NFL than they do anywhere else, leaving us a huge opportunity to get to cashing in. Here are some guys that our projection system likes that you might not see elsewhere.

We've also got Chris Raybon's Week 7 NFL picks sitting there waiting for you to digest.

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This is an interesting week in the NFL. There are a great many chalk plays going that we already know about. For instance, Devontae Freeman, Todd Gurley, Gates and the Rams D  are the chalkiest plays at their positions. Chalk doesn't make a play wrong mind you. These players (team) have big expectations relative to their dollar value. But it will be difficult to get bug separation from the field in a tournament, especially if you are rostering all of them. Below I'll take a look at some possibly lesser owned players.

QUARTERBACKS

Quick note: Chris already covered Landry Jones in his main picks article. He's a prime value play on the week considering he has a number of different weapons at his disposal and is coming very cheap. I don't think he's a must play or anything as he's a relatively unknown commodity. But he would be in this write up for sure had he not appeared in the main picks.

Nick Foles - FD 6400 DK 5100
Opponent- CLE
Once again, your weekly reminder that these are the "Uber Safe Super Locks of the Week". I always feel like I need to say that, especially with the quarterback plays we throw out there in this article. Foles is about as consistent as your buddy who's got the best arm in your backyard football game. But he does have some upside in this matchup. The Browns are clearly worse against the run (which helps the Gurley everywhere case), but they are only league average against the pass. In some ways adding more of a running game for the Rams will cut into Foles production (or lack thereof at times) but it could have the benefit of opening things up more for the pass. Foles is very cheap across the board and does have two, well above average games under his belt this season against the Seahawks and Cardinals. I can see firing a bullet on him for some upside, but know that the floor is low.

Matthew Stafford - FD 7400 DK 5700
Opponent- MIN
He topped the value plays piece from last week and crushed it against the Bears. This is not nearly as juicy a matchup, but Stafford's price is still very low on DraftKings. To reiterate from last week, he still has a top 5 target in Calvin Johnson with some nice role pieces in the other WR slots. The Vikes are an average team in DVOA against the pass this season. I don't think I'd roll his price on FanDuel as there are other competent arms in the same price tier, but on DK he's still a punt type play.
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RUNNING BACKS

This is another situation where two of the better value plays on the slate, Doug Martin and Lamar Miller, were included in the main picks write up. I like both of them more than the dudes listed below, especially on DraftKings where I think they will be heavy starts. That being said, want to throw out a couple of other options to take a look at.
Frank Gore - FD 7100 DK 4900
Opponent- NO
I am a much bigger fan of his DraftKings price than the FanDuel salary, but on the former there's a decent amount to like about Gore this week. The game projects as the highest scoring on the slate at a 52 o/u. With the Colts as -4 favorites, there's some reason to believe Gore will see his full share of carries. And that's good news against the Saints who are BAH-RUUU-TAAL on defense. They rank dead last in Defensive DVOA (though admittedly they are much worse against the pass than the run. Though they aren't good against the latter either.) The Saints play at a middle of the road pace, but Gore should be in the 17-19 carry range in this one. He also benefits from getting a majority of the team's red zone rushing attempts which does give him some touchdown upside.

Darren McFadden - FD 6000 DK 3100
Opponent- NYG
I want no part of his FanDuel price, but a minimum tag on DraftKings could have some upside in the right kind of game. With Lance Dunbar out for the rest of the season, McFadden has assumed the pass-catching RB slot for the Cowboys. Last game he saw ten targets out of the backfield, which is actually somewhat in line with what Dunbar was doing prior to the injury. Though the Cowboys will shift to Matt Cassel this week, I don't suspect it has too much effect on their overall offensive scheme. With Dez and Romo out, the Boys have had to shift to getting the RB's more looks in the passing game. McFadden as a punt on DK is interesting.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Nate Washington - FD 4900 DK 3000
Opponent- MIA
With Cecil Shorts sitting out this week and Washington coming back from injury, this is a fantastic spot for the latter. He's third on the team in targets and that's even with missing two games. Though Deandre Hopkins is a target monster and takes a ridiculous volume in the pass game, snagging the Texans' number two at punt prices has a ton of upside. I'm fine running Washington in all formats because if Hopkins sees even a slight dip in targets (though Miami does get rolled by opposing teams WR1) then Washington should be the primary beneficiary.

Pierre Garcon - FD 6100 DK 5000
Opponent- TB
Jamison Crowder - FD 5800 DK 3700
Opponent- TB
I don't think I'd go in with these guys in a tournament mostly because of the way the Redskins' offense operates. That being said, I don't mind them in a cash game structure because of their target percentages in the offense and their relatively low tags. Both are possession receiver types with Crowder quietly coming on and averaging about 8.5 targets over his last three games. Meanwhile Garcon is in the top in the league in targets over the season. Jordan Reed coming back could cut into both of these guys a bit. But if you are looking for cheap, and somewhat safer types to round out cash games then I don't mind getting these guys in against a Bucs' defense ranked 24th in the league in defensive DVOA against the pass.

TIGHT ENDS

Jordan Reed - FD 5400 DK 4200
Opponent- TB
I'm fully aware that this is a lot of Redskins. This week the value picks are a little tougher to suss out because the main picks feature a decent amount of underpriced players. Gates and Julius Thomas both come in at similar price points and have higher expectations, so getting away from them in cash games (or even tournaments) is tricky business. That being said, Reed is returning from his concussion and was one of the most highly-targeted tight ends before going down. If he's a full go then I see him as actually rather safe considering the price.

 

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