Daily Fantasy Nascar Picks
Hollywood Casino 400

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Hollywood Casino 400

Kansas Speedway - Kansas City, KS
Track Type/Length - 1.5 Mile D Shaped Oval Paved Intermediate Track
15° Banking in the Turns - 10.4° on the Front & 5° Back Stretch

Joey Logano opened the Contender Round by dominating the race in Charlotte and picking up the win to automatically advance to the Eliminator Round. Chase drivers finished with 8 of the top 10 finishing positions leaving those drivers in a pretty good position moving forward. Chase drivers Ryan Newman and Matt Kenseth were involved in some contact which eventually lead to Matt Kenseth, who led 72 laps early, finishing in 42nd place and sitting in a dangerous position with Kansas and Talladega left in this round. Newman got away from the contact with minimal damage and ended up finishing in 15th. Kyle Busch was having a pretty good day until a pit road mishap where he and Kyle Larson made contact when they were both making second decision on whether to hit pit road or stay out on the track. Kyle attempted to make his way back through the field after his penalty for hitting the cone but eventually spun out and hit the wall due to some fluid on the track. He wasn't the only driver to hit the wall because of the fluid. Dale Earnhardt Jr. also hit the wall and leaving the #88 team with a 28th place finish. Dale and Kyle have a giant task in front of them but both thrive off of the pressure so be ready for some aggressive driving going into the next two races.

This week NASCAR and the Chase for the Sprint Cup head to Kansas Speedway for the Hollywood Casino 400 on Sunday afternoon. It will be back to back weeks with a race on a mile and half "cookie cutter" track. Last weeks winner, Joey Logano, is also the defending champ of this race from 2014. He goes into this year's race locked into the Eliminator Round and with nothing to lose. The normal crop of mile and half "experts" such as Jimmie Johnson, Kevin Harvick, Matt Kenseth, Joey Logano and Brad Keselwoski, to name a few, always seem to do well here at Kansas. As was the trend last week, look for the top 10 at the end of the race to be filled with Chase drivers as we get down to 6 races left in the playoffs. There is definitely some interesting data to analyze when comparing DFS pricing and Vegas Odds. I will discuss this below in my picks.

Upper Tier Targets

Kevin Harvick
DraftKings - $11,500
Fantasy Feud - $270,000
Vegas Odds - 5/1
Chase Standings – 2nd
Practice #1 - 27th
Practice #2 - 9th
Final Practice - 18th
Qualified - 4th
He was my top pick last week and he finished second behind the dominant Logano. Over the last five races here at Kansas he is best in the field with a 5.8 average finish. In that time he has a win, three top 5 finishes and has led most laps(371) here at Kansas. He has also qualified very well here so look for Harvick to start close to the front and lead some laps and contend for the win on Sunday.

Martin Truex Jr.
DraftKings - $10,300
Fantasy Feud - $225,000
Vegas Odds - 9/1
Chase Standings – 3rd
Practice #1 - 6th
Practice #2 - 6th
Final Practice - 10th
Qualified - 7th
He has been one of the most under the radar and lowest owned Chase drivers this playoffs. He started the Chase in Chicago around 25%-30% owned on DraftKings in the $1-$5 GPP tournaments. After that it has declined each week to a around 9% at Charlotte where he picked up a 3rd place finish. He now comes to Kansas where he has experienced success with two top 5's, three top 10's and a 11.0 average finish in the last five races at Kansas. If his ownership is going to be in the 9%-15% range again, I want all the Truex in my lineups.

Carl Edwards
DraftKings - $9,600
Fantasy Feud - $200,000
Vegas Odds - 11/1
Chase Standings – 6th
Practice #1 - 9th
Practice #2 - 22nd
Final Practice - 6th
Qualified - 2nd
His price goes up $300 on DraftKings after finishing 6th at Charlotte last Saturday night. He is one of four drivers(Hamlin, Logano, Kenseth) to have at least three top 10's in the first four races. In his last five races at Kansas he has two top 5's, three top 10's, and a 11.0 average finish. At this price he is safe to use in any format.

Also Consider - Denny Hamlin(DK-$9,500)

Middle Tier Targets

Jeff Gordon
DraftKings - $8,10
Fantasy Feud - $155,000
Vegas Odds - 26/1
Chase Standings – 7th
Practice #1 - 13th
Practice #2 - 28th
Final Practice - 29th
Qualified - 6th
He has finished inside the top 15 in all four races to start the Chase including an 8th last weekend at Charlotte. In his final Chase and final season in NASCAR the buzz is there for #24 car to get deep into these playoffs. Gordon has a win, three top 5's and a 7.0 average finish in the last five races at Kansas. He hasn't really shown the upside to pickup a win this season so I would only recommend him for cash games this week but $8,100 I can see using him in a few tournaments.

Ryan Newman
DraftKings - $7,300
Fantasy Feud - $115,000
Vegas Odds - 76/1
Chase Standings – 9th
Practice #1 - 4th
Practice #2 - 10th
Final Practice - 11th
Qualified - 10th
His price went up $300 this week after a 15th place finish at Charlotte last week. It was no fault of his own or he might have a better day. Matt Kenseth got into the #31 causing left front damage which hampered Newman the remainder of the race. He sits outside the bubble by only 6 points going into Kansas and will looking for a rebound. In the last five races here he has two top 10's and a 15.0 average finish.

Austin Dillon
DraftKings - $6,500
Fantasy Feud - $145,000
Vegas Odds - 51/1
Chase Standings – Not in Chase
Practice #1 - 2nd
Practice #2 - 26th
Final Practice - 22nd
Qualified - 25th
He is the first driver that I noticed a difference in salary to Vegas odds. Vegas has him as a 51/1 to win the race. Other drivers in his salary range are 101-151/1. I like Dillon as a non Chase driver to have some success this week. He is coming off a 7th place finish at Charlotte and is a good mile and a half racer. It won't be long before we see consistent trips to the Chase for Dillon and the #3 car and we are getting a bit of a glimpse into the future right now. He has raced here 3 times in his Sprint Cup career and has one top 10 and a 16.0 average finish.

Low End Target

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
DraftKings - $6,000
Fantasy Feud - $105,000
Vegas Odds - 251/1
Chase Standings – Not in Chase
Practice #1 - 21st
Practice #2 - 13th
Final Practice - 7th
Qualified - 18th
I am sticking with Stenhouse on the low end this week. He has been a great value play throughout the Chase with finishes of 18th, 13th, 8th, and 13th. Pretty good form a driver sitting at $6,000. His salary has even dropped $200 making the choice even easier.

Ryan Blaney
DraftKings - $5,300
Fantasy Feud - $110,000
Vegas Odds - 151/1
Chase Standings – Not in Chase
Practice #1 - 12th
Practice #2 - 4th
Final Practice - 23rd
Qualified - 8th
I decided to add a second low end driver this week due to the alarming nature of the salary. Blaney comes at minimum salary on DraftKings while he sits at 151/1 to win according to Vegas. Other drivers around the $5,300-$6,000 range have odds of 501-1 to 1001-1. Give me a very talented young driver at minimum price. He has raced here once and finished 27th. He should be able to better that result but even if he doesn't a top 30 will do at that price.

Post Practice & Qualifying Update

Qualifying Top 10:
1. #2 Brad Keselowski
2. #19 Carl Edwards
3. #18 Kyle Busch
4. #4 Kevin Harvick
5. #11 Denny Hamlin
6. #24 Jeff Gordon
7. #78 Martin Truex Jr.
8. #21 Ryan Blaney
9. #41 Kurt Busch
10. #31 Ryan Newman

Brad Keselowski gets the pole for the Hollywood Casino 400 on Sunday. He proved it wasn't a fluke as he went 1st and 2nd in the final two practices. Look for a strong race from the #2 team. Carl Edwards, Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, and Denny Hamlin complete the top 5 starting positions for the race. Matt Kenseth, after a poor finish last week, looks poised to rebound in Kansas. He qualified 11th for the race and was 2nd and 4th in the final two practices. He is in a must win position if he wants to move on to the next round. Joey Logano, who is already locked into the next round, should have a strong car again this weekend and presents some place differential value starting back in 14th Sunday. He was 3rd and 5th in the final two practices. I don't like Blaney starting inside the top 10 but at $5,300 on DraftKings he is a must play. He leaves so much room to fit 3 or 4 of the top drivers in your GPP lineups. He was 4th in practice #2 but faltered in the final practice with a 23rd fastest time. Look for Blaney to be working with a top 15 car on Sunday.

Want to see how these picks and more fit into lineups for the Hollywood Casino 400? Chris is selling a cheatsheet and lineups for DraftKings and FantasyFeud for $5. This is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership. Head over to our PayPal payment page, if that's more your bag.

Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.