Daily fantasy football picks for Week 6 - DraftKings

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When everybody begins to “think out of the box”, the inside of the box becomes “out of the box”…let that one soak in.

Hopefully I just mind-shagged a few of you with my wordplay, but believe me, I am going somewhere with this. Also, what I am about to say is going against my "fade" approach I've been preaching all year. Words of wisdom, if you aren’t adjusting your strategy, adding something new to your data, or trying to figure out how to get ahead of the competition every single week, then you’ll never see any progress. Just like you, I am trying to figure out the optimal strategy in order to produce the highest weekly scores possible.

It is becoming more common for daily fantasy pundits to discuss “utilization” (the percentage at which a player is chosen in any given league). This may be obvious to some, but I’m going to establish it anyway. A player (let’s call him Player 1) with a smaller utilization rate is a better pick than one with a larger utilization rate (Player 2) given they are the same “expected” player. In other words, if Player 1 and Player 2 are the exact same play by the numbers (equivalent salary, equivalent injury probability, equivalent expected value and variance in points scored) then the tie-breaking question should be “which player will be picked LESS by my opponents?”

The fantasy world refers to this strategy as “fading”. When we are not sure who will do better, it is custom to project a player’s utilization rate and default to choosing the guy who will be less played while “fading” the suspected “popular” play. I’m not disagreeing with this paradigm, I am just saying we should never get to the point of asking the question, “to fade or not to fade?” There are far better questions to ask yourself first in order to determine the better play. Here are a few considerations, Most of which are obvious, or “inside the box”.

• Begin with a team, not an individual player. I feel the over/under (O/U) is too glorified. The lowest O/U is normally around 42 and the highest around 52. This equates to a variance of less than one touchdown per team. Rather, I like to put more consideration on the point spreads.
  • Big favorites mean more rushing attempts; last week Denver (8.5 favorites, 33 rushing attempts) or San Diego (6.5 favorites, 33 rushing attempts).
  • Big underdogs means more passing attempts; last week Jacksonville (6.5 underdogs, 46 passing attempts), or Carolina (7.5 underdogs, 46 passing attempts).
  • Teams coming off byes should be considered first. The NFL season takes a toll on a player’s health and an extra week to rest and prepare should never be overlooked.

• Mid-week injury reports or time splits can produce a solid “value” play
  • Consider not just the “next man up”, but also the “the next next man up” (e.g. Theo Riddick last week).

• Never forget about the 3 point bonuses. Consider who has the highest probability to achieve this threshold.

• Take note of where players rank in relation to all other players at the position.
  • Last week example: Tom Brady was the 22nd most expensive QB last week and Cam Newton was the 24th. In what world are these QB’s bottom tier QB2’s? (They both scored over 30 points last week).

• Resist the urge to “chase the dragon”.
  • Cordarrelle Patterson, Percy Harvin, C.J. Spiller, among others come to mind. I will be the first to admit that I love chasing the dragon, but I've been playing daily fantasy for 3 years and I’m just now realizing the chase will never pay off over the long run. I’ll save you the anguish, stick with the consistent performers.

The considerations above are by no means exhaustive. Moral of the story, there is no such thing as a “fade”; just pick the player you think will score the most points. Pretty simple, huh?

Have you ever looked back at a week and tried to make a 200+ point team?

I have listed two examples below from week 6. There are a few things I want you to notice. The “% played” column is the percentage at which the player was utilized in the Week 6 Millionare Maker. Team A is a collection of players that seemed highly under-utilized given their circumstances. Team B on the other hand, is a collection of players with the highest utilization rates. Also, notice one team doesn't use all $50,00 of salary. Don't be afraid to leave some money on the table especially when making multiple lineups for the same tournament. We are looking for that perfect combination and often times the perfect combination does not require all $50,000. (This idea does not apply to double up formats). Finally, take note of my player comments. Of course hindsight is 20/20, but I think these simple considerations were pretty obvious even before week 6 kicked off.

[table id=111 /]
[table id=112 /]
Both teams listed above scored well over 200 points and Team A actually would have put you within the top 5 of the Millionaire Maker. Side note, the scores of these teams weren’t my end goal. I just wanted to show you that the utilization rate of a player should have little to no effect on your choice of who to play.

Week 7 Picks: “To Fade, or Not to Fade. That is the Question…or is it?”

So this week, I am providing two teams. Found below will be my Team A and I will provide a Team B on Saturday. It will be a legitimate lineup based on the simple considerations I offered above. Risking a reasonable amount of embarrassment, I will recap the performances of my two teams next Thursday.

 

Quarterback

Colin Kaepernick DK $6,500
Kaep fits almost every consideration. He is coming off one of the best games of his career, in a week where his team is a 6.5 point underdog (more passing attempts). He is the 18^th most expensive QB. 18?! Middle range QB2? Absolutely not.

 

Running Backs

Jamaal Charles DK $6,700
Coming off a bye week with Andy Reid as your head coach? This means the Chiefs had two full weeks to determine how they can get Jamaal Charles 30 touches in this game.

Arian Foster DK $8,300
20+ carries in each of the last two games showing no signs of injury. The Texans played Thursday week 5 and play on primetime MNF this week creating the closest thing to a bye. I also can’t resist a player like Foster in a Monday night game. He loves the limelight and loves to show the world he’s still a top tier running back in the NFL. I expect a minimum of one bow to the Steelers crowd.

 

Wide Receivers

Brandon Marshall DK $6,300
At his current price he is the 13^th most expensive WR. I cannot possibly agree with the idea that he is not a WR1 this week. He played superb last week and saw no increase in price. He’s taking on the Dolphins this week who have been very generous to the position and doesn’t it seem like this year every time a player goes up against his ex-team, he balls out?

Justin Hunter DK $3,700
He’s starting and playing almost every snap. Regardless of the QB situation, his team will be forced to throw as they are a touchdown underdog. I’ve seen the Redskins get beat over the top enough this year to suspect a long touchdown from Goodwill Hunter.

Golden Tate DK $5,900
This pick is only viable if Calvin Johnson misses week 7, which all signs point to that happening. Over the last three games, Tate is average over 7 receptions and 99 yards/game. The Saints are in the bottom three of fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers and I would have to guess the Lions will need to throw a fair amount considering their opponent.

 

Tight End

Jermaine Gresham DK $3,500
This is the best example of the “next, next man up”. With the absence of A.J. Green, Mohamed Sanu got the chance to shine and he was nothing short of blinding. Now, he’s much overpriced in a tough matchup. Gresham however quietly caught 6 for 68 in week 5 and remains in the “punt price” territory. P.S. A.J. Green doesn't look like he'll be playing this week.

 

Flex

Justin Forsett DK $5,600
Coming off a very nice performance against Tampa Bay, Forsett has solidfy his position atop the Baltimore run game. He is rewarded with an Atlanta defense that is the worst in the league against the run. I agree with Vegas in that Atlanta is finished. Baltimore is a 7 point favorite and Forsett will see 20+ carries this week. I think he has one of the highest probabilities to achieve the 100+ yard bonus.

 

Defense

Buffalo Bills $3,300
The Bills have had two or more sacks in every game and get Teddy Bridgewater and company who threw three interceptions and was sacked 8 times last week against the Lions.

 

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I will be certain to enter this lineup in to the Millionaire Maker. If you trust me enough go ahead and do the same…we can split the first place prize money. Follow me on Twitter @brycemcvay and follow DFSR @dailyfantasySR for additional insights.