Daily Fantasy Football Picks for Week 6 - FanDuel, DraftKings, Draftday, and Draftster

Week 6 up in this! If your week was like mine, it was fun, crazy, profitable.. and a little maddening. My top 100 DK million team suffered from a crucial Heath Miller for Greg Olsen swap that cost me, well, a lot. Let's move on.

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Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson - FD 8400 DK 7600 DD 14050 DFSTR 7600
Good thing you weren't on the phone with me and Doug last week, when I declared to him - "I think everyone who plays Russell Wilson in a GPP this week should just send me 80% of their buy-in and keep 20%. The guy has literally no upside." So, yeah. You weren't on the phone. So that's just hearsay, or something. Anyway! Our projection system is head over heels for Wilson in a match-up against the Cowboys' defense, who were terrible against the pass last year, and merely bad this year. Wilson absolutely went off against the Redskins, having both a solid quarterback game and a great running back game all at once. I don't think we can count on Wilson for 100+ running yards on a game to game basis, but it's great to see that he's comfortable getting out in space. And I blush to think about what his line could have looked like if the 2 drives that ended in TDs (or 3 total passes) came through. Yikes. So, grudgingly, I'm here to tell you that Wilson is the cash game play of the week, and a reasonable GPP play as well.

Eli Manning - FD 7200 DK 7800 DD 13950 DFSTR 7500
Eli is my favorite GPP play of the week, and it isn't especially close. The Eagles have allowed the 3rd most passing yards this year, and play so damned fast that teams just wind up getting a ton of opportunities against them. The developing red zone relationship with Rueben Randle (criminally underpriced once again) and the injury to Rashad Jennings leave me thinking that this could be a week where the Giants flip their script and keep the ball in the air more than usual. And if you play Eli at these prices, you're going to have money to spend on some attractive high priced options elsewhere. If the Giants keep protecting Eli, the sky is the limit on a game to game basis. But the bottom of the ocean is the floor. Have fun!

Colin Kaepernick - FD 7800 DK 7200 DD 13350 DFSTR 6200
So, our projection system loves it some Colin Kaepernick this week. He's actually the highest ranked player in the system. So why does he slip in these rankings? Upside concerns. You see, the 49ers run the ball a ton in the red zone, and Kaepernick's 25 opportunities down there on what's been a just OK offense leaves me wanting quite a bit more. I'm not concerned about the Rams' passing defense, which is getting a lot of credit for allowing fewer passing yards than any other team this year, simply because I believe those stats are skewed by the game scripts they've fallen into rather than any particular skill they have. They've allowed plenty of rushing yards, and I think Kaep gets his. For me, though? It's going to be a cash game play.

Joe Flacco - FD 7000 DK 6700 DD 12250 DFSTR 6100
After a rough game against the Colts, a lot of people are off the Flacco bandwagon. But you know isn't? Our projection system. Tampa Bay has tried desperately to chase Jacksonville's league-worst passing defense to no avail, but they're still a terrific match-up. I think Flacco will bottom-feed on the Bucs and pad his stats for the rest of the year. Like Kaepernick, though, Flacco strikes me as more of a double-up play simply due to the Ravens' red zone tendencies. He has had the ball in his hands in just half of the Ravens' red zone opportunities this year, and while that certainly has the potential to reap rewards against the Bucs, it's hard to imagine him taking all of the Ravens' touch downs.

Matthew Stafford - FD 8600 DK 8200 DD 15100 DFSTR 6400
This one will probably be a little bit off board, but follow me for a second. First of all, this really only applies if Calvin Johnson is playing. Cool? Alright - the case. Stafford's 63.4% completion rate is his highest since his 5,000 yard season, and he's done it effectively without the benefit of having Johnson around for the last 2 games. Golden Tate has emerged as the guy who can finally be Megatron's bridesmaid, and while he's not a huge fantasy threat, the rookie Eric Ebron is looking like a nice player as well. The Vikes were the league's 2nd most generous defense against the pass last year, and their middle of the road ranking this year is largely driven by just getting blown out. Stafford is a huge upside play this week.

Andrew Luck - FD 9900 DK 9000 DD 18050 DFSTR
Houston has given up the 8th most passing yards this year, but Luck has really been the bee's knees regardless of who he's played. His 68% completion rate speaks to a growing comfort level with Reggie Wayne and the pieces around him, and seeing him connection so well with TY Hilton on his typical huge cache of targets was a welcome sight. The big case for luck, though? His red zone usage. His staggering 48 red zone attempts this year (rushing & passing) crushes the next highest player in this group - and Luck's quick release should be as good a match-up as is reasonable against a force like JJ Watt.

 

Running Backs

Matt Forte - FD 9000 DK 8800 DD 15750 DFSTR 9000
We gave you Forte in our week 5 picks, and boy did he ever go off. Forte is doing a lot of ridiculous things this season, but chief among them is the way the Bears are utilizing his skills in the passing game. He had 12 receptions last week, leading all receivers in the NFL, and happened to be the Bears feature running back as well. He is second in the league in receptions. And 8th in carries. How's your math? He's the 2nd most used skill player in the NFL, and he's started to really convert those opportunities into fantasy points. And now for the amazing part - he's facing the Atlanta Falcons, who have allowed the 2nd most rushing yards in all of the NFL this year. He'll be a huge start in all formats, and for good reason.

Le'Veon Bell - FD 8600 DK 7200 DD 14050 DFSTR 6800
If you were re-drafting a full season league from scratch, Bell would probably be a top 3 pick. He's quieted all talks about a time-share with Blount, and has reversed his 3.5 YPC to a game-changing 5.3 this year. Roethlisberger is targeting him on bubble screens as well, letting him gather up extra yards after the catch as well. While the Browns are feistier than perhaps people expected, their 21st ranked rush defense is nothing that should scare Bell owners.

Andre Williams - FD 6300 DK 5400 DD 7950 DFSTR 6200
Williams' yards per carry this year are rather uninspiring, but a lot of that comes from Williams' usage as a short yardage back this year. While I think the Giants will emphasize Eli and the passing game if Jennings is injured, they clearly have a soft spot for Williams, whose 15 red zone carries this season is second only to the guy he's replacing when it comes to running back carries. The Giants prefer to go conservative in the red zone, and if that continues, A-Will should have the opportunity to put up some numbers this game. I wouldn't play him in a double up, but against an Eagles team that allows a ton of opposing possessions, I love him in a GPP.

Giovani Bernard - FD 8700 DK 7700 DD 13150 DFSTR 7400
A lot of people are down on Giovani Bernard after a few weeks of reduced touches, but given the blow-out nature of those games, I think the Bengals were simply trying to preserve their feature back's legs for a hopeful postseason run. Against the Titans in particular, the Bengals were handing the ball to any Tom, Dick, and Harry that was hanging out on the bench. I think his carries rise and his receptions look more like they did in the first 2 games of the season in this game against the Panthers and their 27th ranked run defense.

Ahmad Bradshaw - FD 6200 DK 4900 DD 9800 DFSTR
Bradshaw saw the predicted increased workload in week 5 (19 touches), and while he finally took a game off from finding pay-dirt, it only serves to depress his price another week before the rest of the world figures it out. Bradshaw has seen a staggering 17 targets/carries in the red zone this year, and is clearly Luck's preferred outlet from the precious 5-15 yard line area. You can't fully count on the work load, but the upside is very, very real.

Andre Ellington - FD 7200 DK 5100 DD 12150 DFSTR 6400
FanDuel has a way of pricing no decent options in the ~7k range, so I present Ellington to you in case you are inevitably stuck the way I always seem to be when staring at your last running back slot. I'm putting him here strictly as an upside play. He hasn't shown anything in the running game this year, but his big play ability was made clear when he finally got out in space last week against the Broncos. The Cardinals seemed determine to stick with him as well, given their lack of options. Oh, and have you seen the Redskins defense? *shudder*

Want to see who else our projection system likes? Take a three-day trial or check out our week 6 sleepers and stacks article, coming out later this week.

 

Wide Receivers

Rueben Randle - FD 5900 DK 4600 DD 9000 DFSTR 5600
Man crush alert! Rueben Randle received another 4 red zone targets last week, and 10 more targets over all. He's Eli's favorite receiver, and he comes into a match-up with an Eagles team who has allowed a literal ton of passing yards over the last 2 years. So what's up with the price? Well, he and Eli only converted 4 of those 10 targets last week for 33 yards receiving and a touchdown, so the fantasy sites haven't quite caught up to what he's capable of yet. I have, though! I'll be playing Randle in every spot where I don't play Williams in this week's GPPs, and I suggest you do the same.

Julio Jones - FD 9000 DK 8400 DD 14550 DFSTR 9000
Jones was a PPR monster last week, and his 16 targets compared to a healthy Roddy White's 4 should tell you that the Falcons are game-planning to look at Jones first, if he's open. The Falcons have had a weird year - scoring plenty of points, but running very few plays in the Red Zone, but it stands to reason that Jones will continue to be the guy down there if their odd red zone trends don't continue. You've got to love the match-up with the Bears and their 23rd ranked passing defense as well. Jones should have the highest projected point total of any wide receiver this week.

Kelvin Benjamin - FD 6600 DK 5800 DD 11250 DFSTR 5400
I've been one of the few people in the daily fantasy football space to not recommend Kelvin Benjamin this year, so it might seem odd that I'm racing over to recommend him now that he had a "come back down to Earth" game against the Bengals. It simply comes down to usage. Benjamin actually saw a season high tying 11 targets in week 5, and is tied for 7th in the NFL with 47 targets on the year. Now, a down field receiver like Benjamin is going to necessarily be boom or bust, but there's a heck of a lot of boom here, especially if Carolina can find the same holes in the Bengals defense that the Patriots did.

Jeremy Maclin - FD 8000 DK 6800 DD 13400 DFSTR 6900
Speaking of targets, Maclin is tied with Julio Jones for the league lead, and he's sniffed out the end zone in 4 of his 5 games this year. It's clear that Foles is looking to Maclin first on almost every read, and while forcing the ball in there hasn't led to a high conversion of those targets (Maclin is tied for just 21st in the league with 25), it's led to a lot of big plays and scoring. We saw what happened vs. Washington in week 3 when Maclin ran hot by converting 8 of his 10 targets for 154 yards and a score, and that sort of week is absolutely in play vs. the Giants and their 28th ranked pass defense.

Steve Smith - FD 7200 DK 6200 DD 11550 DFSTR 6200
The natural compliment to the recommendation to Flacco, and you can get him at less than premium prices once again after a less than transcendent performance against the Colts last week. Listen, there's nothing to worry about with Smith. Getting 7 targets in a low scoring affair is nothing to be ashamed of, and even true WR1's take a weekend off every once in a while. Smith is still the 6th most targeted receiver in football, and Flacco's target of choice when the Ravens get down to the red zone. We've also seen the Bucs give up big plays to deep threats, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Smith reel in 5-7 short passes and one long bomb.

T.Y. Hilton - FD 7000 DK 5800 DD 10900 DFSTR
Hilton is emerging as a reliable fantasy option, and he's still under priced across the industry. It's weird saying this, but Hilton has gone from a guy who everyone thought would be capable of the odd huge games and a lot of disappearances to more of a steady source of receptions and yards. So, I certainly like Hilton and his 5th best target total in cash game formats. But this week? I actually like him in GPPs as well. Here's the thing - Hilton and Luck are hooking up easily on all their short stuff, but having no luck on big plays down field. While that may be a trend that persists, it wouldn't take a lot for Hilton to have his usual array of possession receptions and then a huge play to make your day.

Emmanuel Sanders - FD 8000 DK 6900 DD 11800 DFSTR 7200
Did you know Emmanuel Sanders has seen just 1 fewer target than Demaryius Thomas this year, and that he's significantly cheaper across the industry? Well, it certainly makes sense that he'd be cheaper - Sanders is not the huge play threat that Thomas is, but he has amassed more receiving yards and receptions. And while the Thomas brothers are hoarding most of the red zone looks, it wouldn't take a lot for Sanders to put up a huge game with a couple of things breaking right. I very much like Sanders against an embarrassing Jets secondary, especially given the uncertainty around the Broncos running game. I could see the Broncos using Sanders more instead of their running backs by committee, and it could be a nice situation for his owners.

 

Tight Ends

Martellus Bennett - FD 5900 DK 5500 DD 11050 DFSTR 4900
Well, our luck in when to recommend Martellus Bennett continues! After talking about him in weeks 3 and 4, and specifically not recommending him in our week 5 picks, Bennett's price has come back down a very reasonable range for what he can potentially do in any given game. While you're obviously not psyched about a 3 reception performance, Bennett is still the second most targeted tight end in all of foot ball, and is one of the most heavily targeted red zone receivers as well. It looked for all the world like the Bears saw something special in Forte's match-up last week, and I think this is a great chance to buy low on Bennett before his price heads back skyward after a nice performance against the Falcons and their porous pass defense.

Greg Olsen - FD 6600 DK 5700 DD 11050 DFSTR 6100
Well, we gave you Olsen in our week 5 picks, and our projection system thinks he picks up where he left off in week 6. Olsen's on pace for career bests in yards, receptions, and touch downs, and has hauled in 3 of the 4 red zone touch downs for the Panthers' pass offense this season. Gronkowski lit up the Bengals from the tight end position in week 5, and while Olsen is no Gronk, he should be able to use his big body to carve out some room for another high reception, decent yardage, and potential touch down scoring game.

Delanie Walker - FD 6000 DK 5300 DD 8750 DFSTR 6400There was no talk of Walker's shoulder bothering him in week 5, which was a welcome relief after the was limited in practice all of last week. There's frankly a lot to not love about Walker's situation - the QB situation isn't great, the injury is a concern, and Kendall Wright's emergence could mean the Titans have remembered he's on the team, but there's a lot TO love as well. He's still the most targeted Tennessee receiver in the end zone, and when the match-ups are right, the Titans are happy to make him the first read on any given passing play. The great news, of course, is the match-up. Walker faces the league-worst Jacksonville Jaguars, and it is easy to see him getting 7-10 targets and anything else that might come with it.

Heath Miller - FD 5000 DK 3900 DD 8700 DFSTR 4600
A very quiet week for Miller who, let's face it, cost me a fortune by stinking it up in my best DraftKings millionaire maker team. But! He's incredibly cheap for what he brings to table, and as she showed in week 4, he can emerge as Ben's #1 target if there is anything going on with Antonio Brown. Now, Brown has had great success against Joe Haden in the past, but if the Browns decide that Brown isn't going to be the one to beat them in week 6, Miller could be the primary beneficiary.

 

Kickers

Just a strategy note on kickers, since I figure I'll share what's working well for me this season.

I've been taking kickers against teams that don't have spectacular defenses in decent weather conditions. I don't look at the kicker's individual "skill" at all, just opportunity. Typically kicker will be the very last spot I fill, and while there are situations I'll avoid (I wouldn't play kickers against Seattle, for instance, or any team that's a 6.5 point or more underdog), I think you can justify playing just about any other kicker in a GPP format especially. Don't sweat this too much - just pick a guy that fits in with the rest of what you want to do and go from there.

 

Defense & Special Teams

Baltimore Ravens
I love the Ravens this week for the simple reason that the Bucs are extremely mistake prone, and that they are still happy to put the ball in the air. Even after a reasonable game against the Saints, the Buccaneers have managed just the 30th most yards in the league this year, and getting the Ravens against them at very affordable prices is a great situation.

Denver Broncos
I'm absolutely salivating at this match-up after watching the Jets complete 12 of 31 pass attempts last week. The Broncos offense is going to rip the Jets apart, leaving them to throw the ball when the Broncos know they have to. As lot of fast Broncos drives (especially given their lack of running game this week) could mean lots of opportunities for the Jets to get back to their trademark fumbling/interception allowing, and it won't surprise anyone if we see a Broncos defender celebrating in the end zone this week.

Tennessee Titans
This one might wind up being pretty hard to watch. The Titans are just 17th against the pass this year, and a woeful 30th ranked run defense. This will be a case of the movable object (the Titans run defense) vs. the stoppable force (the Jaguars' 31st ranked run offense), but what really draws you to this match-up is the potential Titans upside. The Jaguars are just so terrible that it's worth taking a flier on whoever is opposing them at this point.

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