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Your goal is to hit outcomes. The higher the number, the more points you get. Choose players who will hit their marks and you win.

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Total Bases

Ryan Braun
The best hitter facing the worst pitcher. If you need a simpler equation than that, well you've come to wrong place. I can't make is any easier. Kyle Gibson doesn't strike anyone out. That alone gives Braun a big boost in expectation for his total bases. He'll be putting the bat on the ball. Additionally, because Gibson is trash, the Brewers stand to have an extra at bat (or two) on the day as the lineup turns over. Braun has been sizzling lately and this matchup shouldn't cool him off too much.

David Ortiz
I mentioned this in our regular picks piece today and the same principles apply. Justin Masterson has a real lefty problem. He has one of the worst lefty/righty splits you'll ever see from a starting pitcher. Basically righties can't hit him and lefties get batting practice. Masterson has allowed a wOBA over .400 this season to lefty hitters. And Papi is one of the best. He makes a ton of contact, is real tough to strikeout and obviously has big time power. If it weren't for Braun facing Gibson, this would be the runaway top pick. Braun and Ortiz rate out as significantly better than the next closest in the field.

Hits

Daniel Murphy
Murphy doesn't strike out much and he doesn't walk much. What he does is make a ton of contact. Isn't a big favorite for total bases, but for hits he's our top option on the day. Facing Roberto Hernandez means his risk of striking out is minimized and playing in Philly means a boost in power all around. The latter doesn't matter as much for this category though I would say that balls flying out of the ballpark are damned hard for fielders to catch. Murphy is in a great spot to collect at least a hit today.

Yadier Molina
Won't be often that you see a catcher in this spot. Nature of the game means catchers, a weak offensive group, need not apply. But today Molina is an interesting consideration. He makes a ton of contact, limits his strikeouts and faces Danny Duffy, a pitcher who stinks. The only thing I'm worried about is the increased chance of the walk, rendering his chance of a hit moot. But Duffy blows and Yadier makes contact.

Strikeouts

Clayton Kershaw
Doesn't take a genius like me to give you this pick. Kershaw is striking out close to twelve batters per nine. Tonight he takes the mound against the White Sox, a group that strikes out nearly 24% of the time. There may be a group of people who start King Felix over Kershaw in the top K slot. If you se this happen in your league, be pumped. You are competing against money that's getting it in bad. Kershaw's ERA will fool some people as well. He's running a little bad and has an xFIP in the high ones. Top play tonight and it isn't close.

Matt Garza
I'm not suggesting a King Felix fade by any means. He should be in your top three just by nature of the beast. But I wanted to recommend a guy our system really liked for K numbers tonight. One issue with Hernandez is that pitching in Yankee Stadium is a tough assignment, and the Yankees as a team aren't big strikeout guys. Garza on the other hand, while striking out about 1.5 less batter per nine, faces the Twins who strike out 22% of the time. Like I said, fading Felix completely would be foolish, but going against the grain has its advantages.

There you have it. Come and play us over at ScoreStreak. Super easy sign in through FaceBook and look for my picture. It's the handsome devil kissing his daughter. I'll be playing these picks and we'll duke it out over the thirds. Good luck!

Follow on Twitter @dailyfantasysr and @dougnorrie.